Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

The T-62 situation is even worse for Russia than I thought

RU has potentially nearly exhausted its immediately operable reserves of T-64s, T-72s, T-80s, and T-90s.

Because why use an antiqued tank if you can use a more modern one?  The only possible reason is that there are few modern tanks available for use, which is strange because Russia supposedly has thousands of modern(ish) tanks in storage.  They must be in an advanced state of disrepair to necessitate the desperate act of turning to the T-62s.

Personal theory: thanks to corruption, much of the stockpiled tanks may have been poorly serviced and may even have had components illegally sold for graft money, rendering many if not most of them inoperable.  Naturally, the more modern components are more in demand and fetch higher prices, so the T-62s were affected less by this practice than the newer tanks.

After all, who's going to notice or care about some old tanks in storage?  They've been rusting for years and years, so who cares if one is missing a part here or a part there?  What are the odds that some mad dictactor will start a crazy war and burn through the main tank force like a hot knife through butter?

Summary: Russia likely has at most ~3,100 deployable tanks before it has totally exhausted its active and operable stockpiled tanks. Given they have suffered ~1,300 loses in the first 3 months, I'm skeptical they can continue combat operations through the end of the year.

[Hydra009]

Another mysterious fire in Russia, this time at a strategic rocket site, burning down a regiment command post

[Hydra009]

US: 20 nations to send new weapons to Ukraine

[Hydra009]

In the east in the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces repelled 16 enemy attacks, destroyed 8 tanks, 22 armored vehicles, and 1 err...other vehicle.  Also, 7 drones.

[Hydra009]

Z marks the spot: Ukrainian forces blow up a Russian command post using a NATO-standard howitzer.  Distance of over 20km.  Suffice it to say they're quick learners.

"The artillery men of the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Zakarpattia Brigade have hit a senior staff base of one of Russian military units. The Z-marked military off-road vehicle and several rashists standing nearby were destroyed. The shot was fired from a howitzer delivered to Ukraine as part of NATO's assistance,"

[Hydra009]

It's all a feint:  "Russia slowing down offensive on purpose to avoid civilian casualties" - Sergei 'serious as a heart attack' Shoigu

If you beleive that, I have a high-rise in Mauripol to sell ya.

[Hydra009]

Hoisted by their own petard: Russian mortar team destroyed by Ukrainian forces using captured mortars.  Result: more captured mortars!

They also destroyed a tank because why not.

[Hydra009]

Due to sanctions, Russian fleet reduced to using chinese household appliances in their ships

And no, they're not being used in the mess hall.  They're used to maintain buoyancy.  Imagine taking the circuit from a rice cooker and slotting it into critical naval systems.  What could go wrong?

Probably related to the fact that Ukraine has been receiving new Harpoon anti-ship missiles as well as the overall poor state of the Black Sea fleet, some Russian sailors are refusing to undertake combat missions.  Good on them.  Stay close to port, because you never know when "rough seas" will hit your ship, so you definitely want to stay as close to land as possible.

[Hydra009]

Moscow removes upper age limit on military service

Apparently, they need manpower bad but for some reason can't mass-mobilize.

[Hydra009]

Invaders using scorched earth tactics

[Hydra009]

Orwellian: Invaders use propaganda vehicles to lie to the public in temporarily occupied Ukraine

[Hydra009]

In more positive news, Finland's Prime Minister visited Zelensky in Kyiv.



Ukraine receives 14 Su-25 aircraft, albeit in disassembled form.

Also, Lithuanians are crowdfunding Bayaraktars for Ukraine.  Those things are probably the best bang-per-buck in Ukraine's arsenal and absolutely terrify invaders, so getting more of them in the air is a big deal.

[Hydra009]

This invader just wants to go home and go back to his construction job and his family.  By all means, don't delay!

And get some serious therapy because those laughing fits in between talking about utter carnage, that's not healthy.

[Hydra009]

Snorting one's own propaganda or sheer arrogance?  Moscow expects Ukraine to legitimize conquered territory

[Hydra009]

Another Russian official demands an end to this disasterous war, gets escorted out of a high-level meeting, branded a traitor, and denied the right to vote (for an election that's already predetermined)

Speaking on behalf of four party members in a rare critique of what Putin describes a "special military operation," Vasyukevich said he and his colleagues had signed an appeal to the president.

A key difference between dictatorships and democracies:   dictatorships can't change from within.