Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Russia asks for "green corridor" to evacuate encircled troops north of Kherson

For all intents, the encirclement is effective. This is clear, because Russia has had the audacity to ask for a "green corridor" for surrounded troops. The same kind of corridor it refused to open so many times for trapped civilians. The same kind of corridor Russia has offered, then used as a convenient means of attack.

Ukraine refused, btw.  No, safe passage to set up somewhere else and bomb babies.  Of course, they can always surrender and live through this conflict in relative luxury and safety.  Hell, if they behave themselves, they might even leave with a free toilet for the missus.  Every conscript's dream.  But no, no other deals.

[Dark Lightning]

Russia asks for "green corridor" to evacuate encircled troops north of Kherson
Ukraine refused, btw.  No, safe passage to set up somewhere else and bomb babies.  Of course, they can always surrender and live through this conflict in relative luxury and safety.  Hell, if they behave themselves, they might even leave with a free toilet for the missus.  Every conscript's dream.  But no, no other deals.

"Wait, wait, time out!" Fuck them and the dump truck they rode in on.

[Hydra009]

Especially when one considers their other "green corridor" agreements.

Hell, they just bombed Odessa after signing a green corridor for wheat exports.

[Hydra009]

Blockbuster night: Ukrainian drone hits Russians during movie night on top of their tank

They could've surrendered and watched all the movies they wanted in peace.

[Hydra009]

The Russian military is so depleted that they take 3 undermanned battalions to form one full-strength battalion

A full-strength battalion is around 600-800 troops, so that's like 200-300 left in those undermanned battalions. 

And of course, losing around 2/3 of your troops represents serious losses.

[Hydra009]

Good news for Russian forces. 

They've learned to successfully intercept HIMARS strikes with their S-300 anti-air systems.

Specifically, it was struck and destroyed by a HIMARS strike.  :P

This particular system had allegedly been jury-rigged to fire on ground targets, like hospitals and kindergartens.  Good riddance.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine strikes bridges near Kherson, isolating it from reinforcements

In general, there appears to be a lot of recent activity along the southern front. 



While it's still too early to know for sure, it appears that Ukraine is gearing up for a major counterattack with the aim of liberating Kherson.

Ukrainian officials are on record saying it'll be liberated in September or earlier.

[Hydra009]

Russian SPG ruptured while firing

This corroborates with Russians complaining about their inaccurate artillery fire and Ukrainian forces finding noticeably off-center bore on a captured artillery piece:



Perun talked about this, and I'll try to sum up as best I can.  Bear in mind that I'm no expert, I'm simply a guy fascinated by this stuff and trying to relay what experts have said in a way that's understandable to everyone.

Artillery can become damaged from overuse - there are only so many shells it can fire before parts have to be repaired or replaced.  Obviously, Russia has opted not to repair or replace anything, so damage has accumulated and now some artillery barrels are starting to warp.  This warping makes artillery shots increasingly inaccurate, sometimes even causing a catastrophic failure like that poor SPG.

Because Russia has been firing something like three times as frequently as Ukraine (with notably less accuracy, even when the barrels were undamaged) this problem is affecting them first.  (Canada shipped some replacement artillery barrels to Ukraine for this exact reason)

This is amazing news for Ukraine because they've been fighting a series of artillery duels with Russian forces and well, if the other side literally can't hit the broad side of a barn, it's pretty easy to predict the winner of these duels.

Russia has two options: 1) Keep firing with much less effectiveness 2) withdraw damaged artillery and repair/replace.  Either option gives Ukraine a significant advantage.

[PopeyesPappy]

Not saying the Russians don't have maintenance issues, but the barrel in the picture didn't get that way through damage or overuse. It was manufactured like that. Technically a non-concentric bore shouldn't really have much effect on accuracy, but I guess it could under heavy use if the metal heated unevenly causing warping.

[Cassia]

Not saying the Russians don't have maintenance issues, but the barrel in the picture didn't get that way through damage or overuse. It was manufactured like that. Technically a non-concentric bore shouldn't really have much effect on accuracy, but I guess it could under heavy use if the metal heated unevenly causing warping.

Yep, by the third round I doubt they could even continue to hit that apartment building.

[the_antithesis]

Russian SPG ruptured while firing

This corroborates with Russians complaining about their inaccurate artillery fire and Ukrainian forces finding noticeably off-center bore on a captured artillery piece:

Quality. Quality. Quality. Quality. Quality. Quality. Quality.

[Hydra009]

Ukrainian forces gain fire control over logistics routes in Kherson region

I'm not quite sure what exactly that means, but I'm guessing it means they're positioned so that they can easily fire on anything coming in or out using the roads.

If so, that's a huge tactical advantage.  Russian logistics were already fraught before HIMARS and before they had Ukrainian forces breathing down their necks in the Kherson region.  If they keep up the pressure, there's no way invader forces can hold their position for long.

[Hydra009]

Not saying the Russians don't have maintenance issues, but the barrel in the picture didn't get that way through damage or overuse. It was manufactured like that. Technically a non-concentric bore shouldn't really have much effect on accuracy, but I guess it could under heavy use if the metal heated unevenly causing warping.

Correct.  I realized that a little too late after posting.

That one's not damaged, just manufactured in such a fugly way that it could be easily misinterpreted as defective.  Definitely a testament to Russian craftanship.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine considers Tulsi Gabbard and Rand Paul to be Putin propagandists

In this conflict, there are those who stand for democracy and Ukraine and those who stand for dictatorship and Russia.

[Hydra009]

Sanctions that bite

the official Russian statistics are lies.

surprised_pikachu.jpg

Russian imports have largely collapsed," the paper says — creating massive supply shortages and denying the country crucial parts and technologies.

"Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill."

Foreign companies that have left Russia account for 40% of Russian GDP, the author wrote, almost none of which is going to come back any time soon.

I've heard the economic toll of sanctions described as roughly equivalent to the worst days of covid.

And despite Russia continuing to make comsiderable sums of money on oil and gas (for now), the service sector has really taken a beating.  Tourism is an obvious example.

Russia has announced further cuts in its supply of natural gas to Europe. But the paper makes the case that Russia needs Europe to buy its natural gas more than Europe needs Russian natural gas to buy.

I've been saying this for months!  Putin is cutting off his nose to spite his face