Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Cassia]

Big badda boom!

Geez, yeah, that was Hollywood level. Was that thing was made of C4 or something?

[Hydra009]

Geez, yeah, that was Hollywood level. Was that thing was made of C4 or something?

Looks like the strike directly hit the ammo it was carrying.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

27 to 1 K/D ratio

Part of the reason is that around 200 Russian troops were cut off from other Russian troops and effectively surrounded.  Easy pickings.  Another part is that Ukraine has been adapting to Russia's infiltration tactics, so they're less effective than they used to be.  And another part is just that Russian forces are nearing exhaustion.

One Russian unit essentially made a complaint video where they say they're ordered to assault but the guy filming is in a wheelchair, another guy has something wrong with his bone marrow, and others have various disabilities or serious injuries.  So what does the brass expect?  He answers his own question: they expect to wipe out the whole unit and then start again from another unit.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine strikes Russian port of Taman, sets oil tanks ablaze (Taman is just east of Crimea, on the Russian side of the Kerch Bridge)

Russia and Ukraine have been hammering each other's energy infrastructure hard.  Kyiv was particularly devastated.

Recall that back in May of last year, Putin promised to halt attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure (Icy conditions did not exist in May, but they do now, hence the reason for Putin's 180, he was merely waiting maximize civilian suffering.  Also, stuff like this further underscores that Putin cannot be trusted on any level and that people dealing with him as if he were a reasonable, rational person are either complete fools or compromised and should be treated as such)

Fortunately for Ukraine, they are receiving emergency energy infrastructure aid from Allied countries.  For example, Ukraine is receiving 400 generators from Poland

Unfortunately for Russia, instead of international aid, they get pro-Ukrainian partisans to exacerbate their problems.  Atesh reportedly damaged an electrical substation in Russia's Bryansk region, disrupting the nearby rail station and war factories.

At Davos, Zelenskyy made some comments that bear repeating:

Zelenskyy notes that it is much, much cheaper and better to destroy Russian missiles prior to launch than it is to give Ukraine aid for its energy infrastructure.  The aid is of course appreciated, but it's a band-aid solution.  Eliminating Russia's ability to bombard Ukraine should be the top priority.

He also said that sending a mere 40 troops to Greenland was a very weak response that Putin is surely noting.

And finally - and I'm positive this will be his most polarizing statement - he called on Europe to create a unified armed force to defend Europe from future aggression.

"Russia plans to have an army of 2 to 2.5 million personnel by 2030. So a European army, while each country keeps its own sovereign forces, must be able to respond. It should be no smaller than 3 million," Zelensky told journalists.

He said virtually the same thing last year and essentially no progress has been made.

Ideally, the US would lead NATO and adequately respond to aggression, but for obvious reasons, the US is no longer a reliable ally, and therefore Europe is forced to look to its own defense.  A joint military force is a no-brainer in such a situation.

I can practically hear the objections.  "But Hydra, Russia is a spent force - resorting to using horses and making very little battlefield progress."  For now, that is true.  But they can always start a temporary peace and then hit any former Warsaw Pact country hard with whatever they would have otherwise lost in Ukraine.  And all of these countries are behind the curve when it comes to the new method of war with drones.  Russia is pouring everything they have into the missiles and drones and they have always had plans beyond Ukraine.  Putin's "brain" Dugin suggested launching aggression in 7 other countries.

In remarks posted on Twitter, Dugin argued that if Washington could claim new territory in the name of national security, Moscow should do the same. "Only brutality, force, mass destruction and cruelty matter in a Trump-like world," he said.

Dugin listed Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as territories that Russia should move to dominate, framing such action as part of a broader effort to reconstruct Russia's imperial sphere of influence.

He of course blames Trump for this, but that's just an excuse - he would say the same with or without Trump.  Putin seeks a restoration of a Soviet sphere of influence and to enforce that, Putin has pursued aggression towards its neighbors.  This is neither a new thing nor an empty threat, and this policy is manifest in Putin's militaristic foreign policy over the course of decades and it will almost certainly continue until the day he dies.

Europe absolutely should prepare accordingly.  Europe should have prepared accordingly years ago.  But it's like they say, the best time to plant a tree...

[Hydra009]

Russian Court Demands $29 Million from Ukrainian Navy Officer for Sinking of Moskva Missile Cruiser

What does Ukraine have to do with its sinking?  I thought it was a Special Smoking Operation?  Can't have it both ways.

And what was the Moskva doing when it was attacked?  Fishing?  I swear, these guys have no shame or self-awareness at all.  It'd be funny if this crybully tactic didn't sometimes work - doing terrible things as if international law didn't exist and then crying to the same international law later on.

[Cassia]

Well, nothing makes sense anymore. Vaccines are killing all of us, we never landed on the moon and Putin is good guy who is really fighting for the white christians.

[Nobody]

Don't take Tylenol! 😱

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

There were peace negotiations between the Ukraine/US/Russia in the UAE.  They said the talks were constructive, but Russian bombs continue to fall on Ukraine.  If Putin were to call it off, then we could say that Putin is maybe interested in peace.  If Putin doesn't call it off, then it is impossible to say that he's interested in peace.  I sincerely hope that the US delegation figures this out and quickly.

[Nobody]

Putin said he'd join Trump's Board of Peace if his $billion$ could come from the money that has been sanctioned from Russia.

[Cassia]

If the all the Russian vodka distilleries were hit, they would revolt against Putin for sure.

[Nobody]

That's a great idea! How can we let Zelenskyy know that? 🤔

[Hydra009]

They've had problems with vodka supplies off and on during this war, iirc.  I think it was a Ukrainian hack of a major bank or possibly due to the extended logistics wait times because they had to search cargo trucks after Operation Spiderweb.  But iirc, sometimes the vodka supplies were disrupted and it did cause a minor furor.

[Hydra009]

There are lots of videos of Ukrainians doing amazing things with drones.  NSFL, but suffice it to say that they can hit a mosquito.  They are very, very good at eliminating pests.  Russians may take Ukrainian ground, but only once.

There are also several very disturbing videos of Russian troops abusing each other, so the end result may be something of a relief in that sort of existence.  Shoulda left Russia to live comfortably elsewhere, as Putin's daughter did (studying in France)