Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

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[Nobody]

I guess the Russians are finding out that war is, indeed, hell, but it's their own damned fault.

[Hydra009]

Yep.  Putin shoulda sued for peace in late 2022 or sometime 2023.  There were generous deals then.  Now they're slapping together rescue attempts for encircled* troops and failing again and again.  The ammonia trick was a nice touch, though.

(* encircled in the sense that they're under Ukrainian surveillance and fire control - Ukrainian drones are very likely to strike them if they try to retreat, so they can neither advance nor retreat, effectively encircled.  NOT encircled in the sense that they are completely surrounded by Ukrainian troops, which is the usual and historic meaning of that term)

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*loud, exasperated sigh*

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Elite Russian unit defeated in northern Ukraine - commander and at least 6 operatives killed

Senezh soldiers were ambushed while carrying out a sabotage and reconnaissance mission involving the mining of Ukrainian territory.

The Senezh Center is one of the most professional units within the Russian Special Operations Forces.

Russia shoots down its own jet over Crimea

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Know your audience: At the Alaska summit, Putin rejected peace and gave long, rambling tirade about ancient historical grievances

Putin firmly rejected America's offer to relieve sanctions in return for a ceasefire with Ukraine, and insisted that the bloodshed would only end if Ukraine ceded more territory to him, according to multiple people briefed.

Putin then launched into a rambling historical tirade, citing medieval princes and seventeenth-century chieftains as evidence that Ukraine and Russia were meant to be a single nation.

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*loud, exasperated sigh*

Putin says no

Disappointing.  Incredibly, tragically disappointing, but not unexpected.

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The slow stangulation of Russian control over Crimea:

And I can't believe that train derailment near Melitopol still hasn't been cleared.  It's been months and that's the main land route that the Russians built at great expense to improve their logistics in southern Ukraine.  That train derailment is a gift that keeps on Ever Given.

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Putin says capitulate

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Satellite images show severe damage to oil tanks at Feodosia Oil Depot

According to the analysis, the latest strikes by Ukrainian drones have completely destroyed 11 tanks, while another part was severely damaged during previous attacks.

At the same time, 7 tanks remain undamaged out of a total of 43 tanks on the territory of the oil depot.

[Cassia]

I ran across an article reporting that the invader's logistics are so bad in some areas that Russian soldiers are practically starving.

[Nobody]

Good, hopefully they soon progress to actually starving.

[Hydra009]

I ran across an article reporting that the invader's logistics are so bad in some areas that Russian soldiers are practically starving.

Me, too, but I haven't seen any evidence of it yet.  Not to say it doesn't happen, but it's not on video.  What is on video is Russian soldiers drinking from a muddy pond, with their hands, of course.  I suppose it doesn't matter if they grab a cup or not.  Привет, товарищ typhus and cholera!

This has been going on since 2024 or even somewhat in 2023, but often not long enough for long-term health effects to materialize, if you get my meaning.  Suffice it to say that there are likely worms mixed in with the sunflower seeds.

There was another video of a lightly wounded Russian soldier holding the staff of some sort of small store hostage with a grenade in hand, demanding to surrender himself to the Prosecutor's Office.  He claimed that his commander got his whole unit killed and got him wounded, but he refused orders and so his commander threatened to tie him to a tree - presumably he wants to report this horrendous mismanagement to the brass and this is what he believes is the best way to make it there alive.  I'm out of clue if he ultimately succeeded or not.

By the way, that commander's threat is no empty threat - recently, they have indeed tied at least two of their own to trees - reportedly for several days with little water and no food.  The stuff they do to their own is some truly barbaric stuff, so it's no wonder their interactions with civilians (in occupied territories and sometimes back in Russia) are so vile.

It makes a lot of sense that Ukraine doesn't want a single Russian soldier to remain on their territory, for security reasons of course, but sanitary reasons are also a factor.