Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Cassia]

I could be the last Weyoun:  Russian tank stockpiles almost completely depleted

We're talking ZERO "decent" tanks left in storage and out of what's left, only about 23% are in a "poor" or better state.  That's still a hypothetical 664 tanks that Russia might refurbish and field.

Russia has already taken 4,400 tanks out of storage, so 664 is just the final 13% of the total amount - the bottom of the barrel.  Sure, you can try to field them, but there's no guarantee they'd work any better than their predecessors and several reasons why they probably wouldn't work as well.  This whole situation is like betting your last dollar after gambling away hundreds of dollars.  Give it a whirl, but let's just say I have a hunch what'll happen.

The experts are cautious about declaring Russian tank stockpiles depleted, saying that any tank hull that hasn't been literally burned up can theoretically be used and "even the worst condition tanks could be reactivated to 100%".

I respect their caution, but these aren't exactly T-1000 tanks.  They're rust buckets, and unless Russia demonstrates a sudden and profound skill in refurbishment, they'll likely just continue to rust.

Russia does continue to build new tanks, so we won't see them completely disappear from the war, but we will see their use in future operations to be severely limited.

And the same thing sort of thing is also happening with Russian BMPs, APCs, and even its artillery.  Either halved or worse in three and a half years.  Won't be around much longer. It's all headed for that big scrap heap in the sky.  Russian equipment is nearing exhaustion and in a war of attrition, being the first one to exhaust your forces is tremendously bad.

Whatever they do get running again will just suffer the same fate without some huge defensive tech improvements.

[Hydra009]

Russia once again launched a bombardment of Ukraine targeting civilians, this time killing a 7 year old.

And this is what graces my feed:



🤢🤮

[Hydra009]

Whatever they do get running again will just suffer the same fate without some huge defensive tech improvements.

True, and actually, I recently learned that attrition gets even worse as you start running out because as there are less targets available, the enemy targets them more often.

Let's say you have 10 FPVs to fight off 20 Russian tanks.  Only half get hit, maximum.  Now it's 10 FPVs versus 10 Russian tanks.  Now they all get hit.  And suffice it to say that Ukraine has many more drones at its disposal today than it did a couple of years ago.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Russia lost a ka-52 helicopter today and two days ago, lost a mig-31 in a crash in eastern Russia

Both incidents are unrelated to Ukraine.  Russian aviation just has these sorts of problems throughout the war.

[Hydra009]

[Cassia]

Ukraine is hitting and should keep hitting Russian oil facilities hard. It's like kicking Putin in the nuts. Who you gonna piss off? India? Oh well. They have been simpin for Putin for years. I hope they are confident about all those great Russian tanks they bought, LOL. The Russian citizens are finally really feeling something.

[Hydra009]

3 day ago, there was a massive fire at a Russian gas plant after a Ukrainian drone attack.  The cotton is toasted (To downplay the severity of Ukrainian attacks, Russian state media refers to these explosions as "bavovna" literally "pop" or "snap", and the Russian word for snap is identical to their word for cotton, so Russian speakers have to differentiate the two based on context)

[Hydra009]

Ukraine is hitting and should keep hitting Russian oil facilities hard. It's like kicking Putin in the nuts. Who you gonna piss off? India? Oh well. They have been simpin for Putin for years. I hope they are confident about all those great Russian tanks they bought, LOL. The Russian citizens are finally really feeling something.

Doesn't hurt India, afaik.  Russia sells them crude at a hefty discount (mild discount now) and they refine it and sell it back to them for bank.  Cha-ching!

With all these Russian refineries getting hit, Russia can no longer refine enough to meet their own consumption, much less sell it overseas.  So they have to import it - pay for it - at a time when Russian finances aren't exactly stellar.

Russia being desperate in this way helps India somewhat - but the big winner is China, who Putin now relies on for just about everything.  China has Russia in a bind and has/will exploit the situation for all they're worth.

[Hydra009]

Feodosia oil terminal/storage hit again

This hit was especially devastating, striking at least 5 oil tanks.  In the strike last week, at least one tank burned for several days.



Ukraine routinely targets Feodosia since it's the main logistical hub fueling Russian forces in southern Ukraine.  But even, so these latest strikes have been unusually devastating, sparking enormous fires that Russia seems unable to put out.

Russian forces are likely to be affected by this, and I'm starting to see why they switched from vehicles of any kind to horses or just walking.  There's footage of a Russian soldier on a bike - not a motorcycle or electric bike - a pedal bike, getting hit by a Ukrainian drone.  The technology gulf in some of these matchups is really something.

[Hydra009]

Unusual but small Russian activity near the border with Estonia

Estonian authorities temporarily closed a section of road passing through Russian territory near the Russia-Estonia border on October 10 after Estonian border guards observed a small group of Russian military personnel without insignia in the area. Meelis Saarepuu, the head of the South Prefecture of the Estonian Police and Border Guard Board, reported on October 11 that Estonian authorities closed a nearly kilometer-long section of the road between Varska and Saatse, a portion of which runs through Russian territory, for safety reasons after observing seven armed Russian servicemembers near the Russian section of the road on October 10. Saarepuu stated that the servicemembers' uniforms suggested that they were not Russian border guards. Saarepuu reported that Russian border guards answered Estonian border guards' inquiries by claiming that the Russian activity in the area was routine. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsakhna stated on October 12 that Russian forces are operating "somewhat more assertively and visibly than before" but that reports that the border situation is becoming more tense are exaggerated.

Tsakhna noted that Estonian authorities plan to stop using the road altogether in the future, as there are alternative routes that bypass Russian territory already available or currently under construction. Reports of a small group of Russian servicemembers operating near Estonian territory come against the backdrop of Russian military aircraft violating Estonian airspace on September 7 and 19. ISW continues to assess that Russia has recently intensified its covert and overt attacks against Europe and that Russia has entered "Phase Zero" — the informational and psychological condition setting phase — of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future. This event is the first instance of ISW observing "little green men" (a euphemism the Kremlin uses for the Russian military forces in unmarked uniforms) operating near a NATO state in the context of the "Phase Zero" campaign

While it's not an imminent invasion or anything, it is seemingly yet another attempt by Russia to test boundaries, test vigilance, and sow panic in the West.

Estonian Artur Rehi knows his neck of the woods better than I do, so I'll allow him to explain.

He talks about Estonia at 17min20sec in, so check that out.  Personally, I found the Ukrainian strike near a Russian mall very strange and confusing until did some digging about it: 

Ukrainian FP-1 drones struck a warehouse in Sigma shopping center in occupied Donetsk where Russian forces were reportedly assembling and storing Molniya kamikaze drones, footage shows Russian soldiers at the supermarket days before the strike.

Source.  And yes, the Russians filmed themselves and even panned around to give anybody watching a good idea of where they were.  There was also a Russian civilian who filmed the assembled Russian military vehicles at the mall and remarked about that.  It may be true that quantity has a quality all its own, but that saying should also be applied to brain cells and informants.  And yes, there's really a vehicle doing donuts (rather well, I might add) in front of a burning building in the midst of war.  Genius social commentary?  Fire sale on vodka?  Boredom?  You be the judge!

[Hydra009]

This video is also pretty funny:

[Hydra009]

I make fun of Russian forces, but they often do use fairly sophisticated hardware and fairly competent tactics, it's just that the Ukrainians are good at anticipating and countering them.  A real owl vs bat matchup.

[Hydra009]

Prelude to Swan Lake:  Hundreds of Russians gather to sing song calling for Dictator Putin to be overthrown

The song titled Co-operative Swan Lake by Noize MC, the pro-Ukrainian rapper, has become an unofficial anthem to the growing dissolution and anger felt by young, liberal Russians towards Putin's regime.

The 40-year-old musician, whose real name is Ivan Alekseev, fled to Lithuania soon after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Earlier this year, a St Petersburg court ruled that the song amounted to "propaganda for violent change of the foundations of the constitutional order"

So the Kremlin is saying that violently changing a country's government is bad?  *scratches head*

[Hydra009]

The UK announces new sanctions on Russian oil

Britain targeted Russia's two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, and 44 shadow fleet tankers on Wednesday in what it described as a new bid to tighten energy sanctions and choke off Kremlin revenues.

Rosneft is Russia's leading oil producer, accounting for around 40% of the country's total output, and Lukoil is the second-biggest, with the largest foreign exposure among its domestic peers.

Neither Rosneft nor Lukoil immediately replied to a request for comment.

The new sanctions target 51 ships, including 44 within the so-called shadow fleet, as well as individuals and entities across sectors including energy and defence.

I'm not sure why Rosneft and Lukoil weren't already sanctioned to hell and back considering that they're essentially Putin's piggybank, but good on them.