Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Russian infiltration groups were under two orders:
1) kill Ukrainian civilians
2) dress up like Ukrainian civilians

Take a wild guess how that worked out.

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Putin calls NATO a paper tiger immediately after launching a disastrous war that he says he started because NATO expansion was a threat to him.  So apparently, NATO is simultaneously puny and threatening.  Makes sense.

Bonus points: his forces are slaughtered against NATO hand-me-downs from decades ago wielded by Ukrainians - NATO's not even on the battlefield.

The real story is that this guy is utterly unhinged and is shaking his fist at a hornets' nest while sobbing and pissing his pants about being stung once.  He will absolutely run Russia into the ground before he gives up any of his mad ambitions.

I talked to my brother about this and his take is that Putin is doing an infantile "No U" response to Trump calling Russia a paper tiger due to being in the process of losing this war.  Putin has a huge ego and sycophantic advisors have given him an inflated view of both his own competence as the economic/military strength of Russia as a whole.  He seriously believes that Russia is the match of all the rest of Europe, which is absurd.

[Cassia]

Putin calls NATO a paper tiger immediately after launching a disastrous war that he says he started because NATO expansion was a threat to him.  So apparently, NATO is simultaneously puny and threatening.  Makes sense.

Bonus points: his forces are slaughtered against NATO hand-me-downs from decades ago wielded by Ukrainians - NATO's not even on the battlefield.

The real story is that this guy is utterly unhinged and is shaking his fist at a hornets' nest while sobbing and pissing his pants about being stung once.  He will absolutely run Russia into the ground before he gives up any of his mad ambitions.

I talked to my brother about this and his take is that Putin is doing an infantile "No U" response to Trump calling Russia a paper tiger due to being in the process of losing this war.  Putin has a huge ego and sycophantic advisors have given him an inflated view of both his own competence as the economic/military strength of Russia as a whole.  He seriously believes that Russia is the match of all the rest of Europe, which is absurd.

Hitler, Trump, Putin, Mussolini, Mao, Pol Pot, Saddam, Stalin, Kim Jong Un, Idi Amin and the Biblical God are all exactly the same. Lots of people love them too.

[Hydra009]

Why the long face?:  Ukraine destroys Russian cavalry unit

Motorcycle troops get routinely devastated by Ukrainian drones, so I don't know what they're thinking going horseback, which is much slower.  What a nightmare.  Pure drone fodder.

I think this might be related to the gasoline shortages.  They're just doing all that they can do, and it seems strange to us, but only because we have lots of resources and options - they don't.

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Ukraine strikes Russian missile ship at Lake Onega (in Russia, east of St Petersberg)

As a result of the attack, the vessel sustained critical damage, significantly limiting its maneuverability and combat effectiveness.

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Another big Russian bombardment, it hit Lviv particularly hard.  Tragic loss of life.  Once again, civilians were the main target.

But if Putin thinks this is going to start capitulation talks, he has another thing coming.  After every tragedy, Ukrainians only get more angry with Putin and with Russia, which makes them less likely to capitulate and more likely to retaliate.

[Hydra009]

This brutal attack on civilians was brought to you by China

I can't say I'm surprised, but I'm very concerned about China's lack of caution.  They're reportedly gearing up for their own war, and they've learned a great deal from Putin's example.

[Cassia]

This brutal attack on civilians was brought to you by China

I can't say I'm surprised, but I'm very concerned about China's lack of caution.  They're reportedly gearing up for their own war, and they've learned a great deal from Putin's example.

They just need to do the opposite of what Russia is doing. I can't imagine the nightmare of a non-nuclear war with China, let alone a nuclear war. The tricky part for China is how to avoid destruction of all the high-tech facilities that they want to take. Perhaps Taiwan should rig all of them for destruction by themselves as a scorched earth plan.

[Hydra009]

Well, Ukraine has certainly been busy lately.

Ukraine hits a Russian explosives factory.  You may guess the outcome.

The strike triggered multiple explosions and a large fire in the vicinity of the plant.

The Y.M. Sverdlov Plant, located in the city of Dzerzhinsk in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, is one of Russia's largest producers of explosives.

It manufactures almost every type of ammunition, including aerial and artillery shells, guided air bombs, warheads for anti-tank guided missiles, engineering ammunition and warheads for air defence missile systems.

The plant also cooperates with other defence companies in assembling warheads for unified gliding munitions used across military branches.

The Russian report is a tad...different:

Regional governor Gleb Nikitin said air defence forces had repelled an overnight attack by 20 drones near Dzerzhinsk, where the factory is located. He said one person was injured by falling debris.

Only one injury from this??!  And the Titanic disaster only killed Jack and the guy who hit the propeller on the way down.  This guy is like Baghdad Bob but somehow less credible.

Ukraine also struck an oil terminal in temporarily-occupied Crimea, causing a huge fire.

And Ukraine struck an ammo depot used by Russia's 18th Combined Arms Army in Crimea.

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The US Supreme Court refused to review an appeal by a Russian bank

The U.S. Supreme Court declined on Oct. 6 to review an appeal by Sberbank over a lawsuit saying the Russian bank did business with Russian proxy forces responsible for the downing of a Malaysia Airlines airliner in Ukraine in 2014.

The move enables the family of Quinn Schansman, an 18-year-old American passenger killed in the MH17 crash, to sue the Russian bank under the U.S. anti-terrorism law.

A U.N. aviation agency and Kyiv said that Moscow was responsible, while Russia denied involvement.

Who to trust...

Schansman's family has sought damages from Sberbank, arguing that the largest Russian bank has funneled money to Russian proxy forces in Donetsk Oblast.

That's 100% true.  Not merely a passive supporter of the aggression towards Ukraine, Sberbank has been very politically active on Putin's behalf, from backing forced Russian passports in eastern Ukraine to sanctions evasion, Sberbank does Putin's bidding every step of the way and is therefore jointly responsible.

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Russian stock market falls by 4%, largest single-day drop in 3 years

The selloff accelerated after Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the "strong momentum in favor of reaching agreements" that followed President Vladimir Putin's meeting with Donald Trump in Alaska had "been exhausted."

Ryabkov added that the "structure" of Moscow's relations with Washington was "collapsing" and the Kremlin did not see "any movement" from the U.S. toward rebuilding ties.

This is a manipulation technique to try to pressure Trump away from sending tomahawks to Ukraine by blaming the US for stalling peace talks while Russia has launched wave after wave of missiles targeting Ukrainian civilians and Putin has repeatedly shown absolutely zero willingness to pursue peace talks.

Essentially, it's a "look what you made me do!" from abuser.  If only you were nicer or more compliant, we could have peace.

It's blatant manipulation, so it has a fair chance of working on the dictator-admirer-in-chief.

In the meantime, the adults are looking at this as a horrible sign that the war won't stop in the near future.  Shoulda known that after the first dozen or so refusals to immediately implement an unconditional ceasefire.

[Cassia]

I decided to go on twitter, WTH. The first thing I saw was a Ukrainian video. Ukrainian soldiers set a trap. Five Russians were walking spread out but they took fire from a machine gun. So they all dove behind a wall all huddled up. A drone was waiting just overhead and got all five of them at once. As they lay there, wounded or dead, two more drones literally landed on them and blew up.

I also saw how Ukraine is setting up unmanned 50 caliber Browning machine guns alnong with cameras and is controling them remotely.

[Hydra009]

I decided to go on twitter, WTH. The first thing I saw was a Ukrainian video. Ukrainian soldiers set a trap. Five Russians were walking spread out but they took fire from a machine gun. So they all dove behind a wall all huddled up. A drone was waiting just overhead and got all five of them at once. As they lay there, wounded or dead, two more drones literally landed on them and blew up.

Yep.  There's lots of footage like that.  My recent favorite was a video of the Ukrainians ambushing a Russian armored vehicle in Belgorod region, bagging three Russians.  During the firefight, one of the Russians yelled, "Friendlies!", apparently misunderstanding the situation.  It's good to have a positive mindset.  Not so much in that case, but in general, it's fantastic.

I also saw how Ukraine is setting up unmanned 50 caliber Browning machine guns alnong with cameras and is controling them remotely.

Yep, they've been doing that for a while.  I forget the exact date, but when the Ukrainians fell back from one of their positions due to Russian advances, they set up a way to remotely fire the gun.  I want to say 2023, but it may have been 2024.

The hot new thing is using ground drones equipped with machine guns.  Recently, Ukraine received 150 of them to compliment the 15 already in service.

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I could be the last Weyoun:  Russian tank stockpiles almost completely depleted

We're talking ZERO "decent" tanks left in storage and out of what's left, only about 23% are in a "poor" or better state.  That's still a hypothetical 664 tanks that Russia might refurbish and field.

Russia has already taken 4,400 tanks out of storage, so 664 is just the final 13% of the total amount - the bottom of the barrel.  Sure, you can try to field them, but there's no guarantee they'd work any better than their predecessors and several reasons why they probably wouldn't work as well.  This whole situation is like betting your last dollar after gambling away hundreds of dollars.  Give it a whirl, but let's just say I have a hunch what'll happen.

The experts are cautious about declaring Russian tank stockpiles depleted, saying that any tank hull that hasn't been literally burned up can theoretically be used and "even the worst condition tanks could be reactivated to 100%".

I respect their caution, but these aren't exactly T-1000 tanks.  They're rust buckets, and unless Russia demonstrates a sudden and profound skill in refurbishment, they'll likely just continue to rust.

Russia does continue to build new tanks, so we won't see them completely disappear from the war, but we will see their use in future operations to be severely limited.

And the same thing sort of thing is also happening with Russian BMPs, APCs, and even its artillery.  Either halved or worse in three and a half years.  Won't be around much longer. It's all headed for that big scrap heap in the sky.  Russian equipment is nearing exhaustion and in a war of attrition, being the first one to exhaust your forces is tremendously bad.