Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Cassia]

Ukraine blows up fully-loaded North Korean MRLS in Ukraine

And I think it's gonna be a long, long time
Till they salvage anything still working from that wreck
This isn't the war they think it is at home.
Oh no no no
Not my rockets, man!

I'd insist on having that launch platform tilted up in firing position when driving around Ukraine. Must have been really hot in that cab.

[Hydra009]

I'd insist on having that launch platform tilted up in firing position when driving around Ukraine. Must have been really hot in that cab.

I'm shocked that they were able to scramble out of that thing.  Given the priority of quantity over quality, I normally expect a loss with all hands, which happens so much that it's my default expectation.  Yet this one and even that famous footage of a Bradley shooting the crap out of that Russian tank - the whole crew scrambled out.  That guy needs to go out and buy a lottery ticket and a flight to Seoul to start a new life lol.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine destroys two more Russian planes, damages two more

At this point, I'm not entirely sure how many planes Russia has left.  But suffice it to say that Russia's strategy of using gliding bombs from a safe distance to soften Ukrainian positions, then advance with motorcycles has been severely undermined in the past few weeks.

[Hydra009]

The part about Russia reducing its defense spending, is intriguing but inconclusive.

The obvious conclusion is that Putin is lying - he typically says that he has no interest in war right before he launches one, the war is going fine when it obviously isn't, etc.  Real basic Art of War stuff - pretend to be strong when you're weak, pretend to be weak when you're strong.

The next scenario is that Russia is looking to more efficiently pursue its war aims.  Like focusing on drones and missiles instead of tanks and ships.  That would sort of make sense, but drones and missiles are still pretty expensive to the point that Ukraine could theoretically produce 8 million drones per year but can't due to lack of funding, not lack of industrial capacity.  Presumably, Russia has similar limitations, albeit with sanctions to boot.  So Putin showing financial restraint as a goodwill gesture is dubious at best.

And finally, the one that initially seems unlikely but may indeed be true - Russia's economy is in even more dire straits than predicted and Putin has no choice but to relent somewhat in war funding.  It's no secret that Putin's main bean counter has been ringing the alarm for a long time now and the economic toll of this war on Russia is at least as impactful as the covid crisis.  Putin spends anywhere from $500 million usd to $1 billion usd on this war per day and earlier this year, Putin's war chest ran dry, so now the war money comes at the expense of cuts elsewhere and/or running up debts.  Russia is very likely to have some sort of major economic crisis this year or next year.

[Hydra009]

Russia's economic problems worse than we thought

Current and former banking officials have privately described the situation in Russia as dangerous and said there is a growing risk of a debt crisis spreading through the country's financial sector in the next year if circumstances don't improve. The people spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss publicly the anxieties within the sector.

Official figures may mask the true magnitude of the debt problem, some of the people said. Borrowers are deferring payments, meaning that while public data on late payments don't yet suggest a serious problem, the reality is that many more loans are not being repaid as planned, according to an internal note from one major bank seen by Bloomberg.

Banks have estimated that their bad debts run to trillions of rubles and are taking steps to manage the increased risk leading to early signs of a credit crunch, people familiar with the internal assessments said. One estimate showed that the corporate loan portfolio by Russian banks in the first two months of 2025 decreased by 1.5 trillion rubles ($19 billion) before stabilizing.

[Hydra009]

Russia kills two Azerbaijani men during police raids, worsening already bad relations with the country

Following that, Azerbaijan arrests two Russians affiliated with Russian state media operating in Azerbaijan

Russian relations with Azerbaijan have been sour since the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243

[Hydra009]

Canada transfers 1.7 billion usd of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine

Putin funds the war against Ukraine, so it only makes sense that he funds the defense of Ukraine as well.  And the longer this war drags on, the more debts will need to be repaid.

[ferdmonger]

Thank you Canada.  The US doesn't have an actual fucking clue what it's doing right now.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine is launching a major strike in retaliation for Russia's strike yesterday.  Ukraine has fired Storm Shadow cruise missiles and drones at several targets.

Breaking news from telegram (we're talking several hours recent, so expect clarification/confirmation later as details emerge):

Russian logistics hub burning in occupied Luhansk Oblast amid reported drone attack, explosions.  A Russian logistics hub in occupied Luhansk Oblast is on fire amid a reported drone attack overnight on July 1.

Occupied Yasynuvata (a city in eastern Donetsk, not far from Russia) was also hit with several missiles or perhaps drones.  Curiously, they hit the same target in rapid succession.  Rostov on Don was also hit.

The big news is that Ukraine reportedly hit the headquarters of Russia's 8th Combined Arms Army.  A scene of heavy damage, but localized in a small area - a surgical strike.  Whatever building got hit was completely incinerated.  Hopefully, the reports are correct.  If so, it's total loss with all hands.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Ukraine destroys two more Russian planes, damages two more

Update: 3 were destroyed, two were damaged.  Even better!

[Hydra009]

Su-34 Bomber Crashes in Russia during training exercise

[Hydra009]

Ukraine confirms that they hit the Russian 8th Combined Arms Army HQ yesterday:



Ukraine also hit a Russian industrial plant that produces AA systems and radars

And finally, in Crimea, Ukraine hit Saky airfield with Beaver drones, destroying AA (a Pantsir and several radars) as well as a Su-30 plane stationed there.

In summary, this latest salvo has caused significant losses of very important Russian assets - loss of commanders, loss of important equipment, and loss of some war manufacturing.  To say that these sorts of losses are unsustainable is an understatement, they're slowly but surely negating Russia's ability to wage war effectively.

[Cassia]

Saw some video of a Ukranian drone flinging a net on top of a Russian drone, taking it down instantly. I remember reading an article years ago about how anti-drone net cannons are a potential technology for airport security.

[Hydra009]

Yes, drone vs drone videos are always interesting.  Either very skillful maneuvering with a fpv drone or a good shot with a net.

On the ground, aside from flak and electronic warfare, nets are pretty much the only way to effectively deal with drones. 

Shooting them down with small arms requires such a combination of skill and luck that it's an unreliable method at best.

When drones appear, soldiers only have seconds to react and the drones approach from unpredictable directions and in curving arcs that are tricky to aim at.

One video of Russians on motorbikes had a fpv drone hit them head-on and there was essentially no warning.  Very difficult thing to deal with.