Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

At about 15 seconds in, this video quotes FighterBomber as well and later shows his telegram post in full and you'll understand why I paraphrased him.

[Hydra009]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/54085

r/ThatWillBuffOut is leaking.

Jokes aside, there are some that aren't as badly damaged as the rest (the ones pictured are the ones most badly damaged) and may potentially be eventually repaired.  Emphasis on eventually.  From what I've heard from people with a fair amount of aircraft expertise, we're talking many months if not years - and that's only for ones with fairly light damages.  For major damages, it's a total loss even if it's still in one piece.

Russia is actively trying to minimize how bad this looks by exaggerating the fixability of these aircraft and by transferring undamaged aircraft to the damaged airfields and putting tarps over the damaged/destroyed aircraft to create the misleading impression that very little damage actually occurred.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Maskirovka rocks!

[Hydra009]

Ukraine shoots down Russian Su-35 in Kursk region (Russia)

Ukraine also destroyed a Russian train carrying tanks and other equipment.  13 tanks and 100+ other vehicles down the drain.  Jeez, at this point, we really might see donkeys take over as the frontline vehicle of choice circumstance.

"strained relations between Moscow and Kyiv" I mean, they're at war.  It doesn't get more strained than that.

[Hydra009]

Detailed analysis of operation spiderweb by everyone's favorite Australian defense analyst:

I'm disappointed to learn that those damaged A-50s were probably not operational anyway.  Some Russian telegram channels put out arguments that some of the planes involved were essentially junk, which is a hell of an argument to make your country look good, but there may actually be a kernel of truth in that.

For more cope arguments, skip to about 34 minutes in:
1) "The bombers were parked in the open to comply with the START treaty."  That's not actually a thing and Russia pulled out of the START treaty anyway.  Next.
2) "The bombers were going to be replaced anyway"  Basically, it's like saying you're okay with your car burning to a crisp because you needed to buy a new one anyway.  This argument has some pretty obvious flaws, especially when you can't replace it for a few more years and your car is in extremely high use.
3) "Disguising the drones was illegal"  Hooboy, that's rich coming from the war crimes bingo country.  Apparently, using PoWs as human shields is a-okay, but sneaking drones into another country is beyond the pale.  Obvious hypocrisy aside, lots of countries - from Russia to Iran to Germany absolutely put all sorts of stuff in shipping containers.  So illegal or not - and I'm kinda dubious on that - this sort of move is just a practical reality in our world since the days of the trojans.

And this sort of move could absolutely happen again, and against a country that isn't Russia.  And a lot of countries have much laxer border security and intelligence services than Russia.  Granted, Russia's not exactly near the top, but it's not at the bottom, either.

[Hydra009]

Updates:

Russia shares Shahed drone technology with North Korea, improves North Korean short-range missiles

Russia strikes civilians in Odessa and World Heritage site St Sophia Cathedral (located in Kyiv)

EU unveils 18th sanctions package against Russia

It includes: transaction ban for Nord Stream 1 and 2 (the US and Russia have been "floating the idea" to restart the pipelines, this would be forbidden under EU law) and reducing the global price cap for a barrel of oil from the current $60 usd down to $45 usd as a way to reduce Putin's primary revenue stream - a third of the Putin regime's federal revenues come from oil sales.

Russia is already having revenue woes.  Russia's coal companies have hit a slump, and more than half of them are now operating at a loss and with losses of $887 million in the first quarter 2025.

[Hydra009]

The two-week deadline is up

[Nobody]

Yeah, does anyone really think that TACO is going to do anything at all?

[Hydra009]

Yeah, does anyone really think that TACO is going to do anything at all?

Well, he is holding US-Russia talks in Moscow.  That technically counts as something.  Definitely doesn't seem like it'll help Ukraine, but Russia is looking to reverse sanctions and Trump seems suspiciously eager to please Putin, the one who started the war in the first place.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Pukin did give T.rump the US election, so a payback is due, yes?

[ferdmonger]

In two weeks this whole thing will be sorted out again just like the previous two weeks.  And the two weeks prior to that.  Oh, and the missiles for Ukraine? Not so much. 

ABC News

The DOD declined comment.  Perfect. It's like throwing chicken bones on a table and hoping for best.   

[Hydra009]

In actually good news, Ukraine will receive British RapidRanger Air Defense Systems

They're autonomous, can be put on a variety of vehicles, and shoots up to 4 missiles - a mix of two Starstreak 2 and two Lightweight Multirole Missiles (aka Martlets, I presume).  These are basically short-range AA capable of hitting fast and maneuverable targets like UAVs with a range of about 7-8km.

Russian tactics lately have been to flood the airspace with hundreds of drones at once, which then follow winding, unpredictable paths to their targets.  This is very difficult to counter effectively.  Having more short-range AA helps plug any gaps in coverage and lighten the load on other systems.

[Hydra009]

Also, Serbia's president makes first trip to Ukraine since the start of the war, offers to help rebuild Ukraine

Vucic who balances relations between Russia and the West, said he abstained from signing the joint declaration at the summit, reflecting Serbia's bid to maintain good ties with both Kyiv and Moscow.

Imho, it's better to favor the defender over the aggressor, especially when the aggressor is losing, but what do I know?  I'm not a politician.  I'm just a guy who knows where Russia's border ends and Ukraine's begins.

Although Belgrade has refused to join Western sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, it has condemned Moscow's policies in the United Nations and expressed support for Ukraine's territorial integrity.

That's good.  That's about as good as one can hope for.

[Hydra009]

Grim milestone hit:



One million wounded/KIA

As a general rule, KIA is about a quarter to a third of the total number, possibly closer to the higher number in Russia's case due to a reliance on suicidal assaults and poor access to medical care.  The Russians do not have infinite reserves and many of these are its most capable and most experienced fighters.  Lost.  Wasted.  This does not bode well for Putin's war.

And just today, there's an example of a Russian jet accidentally shooting down its comrade.  One Russian plane flew low in front of the other, shot unguided missiles, and then banked to the right - right where the other one shot its unguided missiles at the same.  Scored a red-on-red hit faster than you can say Pythagoras.

The special military operation going according to plan.

edit - Denys says the plane didn't shoot the other one, it just had a malfunction while banking and the wing sheered off.  In that case, it reveals poor maintenance.  With how little they have left, you'd think they'd get plenty of TLC.

[Cassia]

Russian strategy = drown you in their blood.