Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Ukraine presents ceasefire proposal at Istanbul, which Russia acknowledged but didn't act on

Russia also failed to present its own memo, which it said it would only reveal during peace talks.  Well, they're at the peace talks with nothing to say.  I suppose that's better than making threats, like they did last time.  And it's unlikely that the dictator invested them with the authority necessary to make peace, so it is as if Russia sent mannequins to show how much they care about peace.

Oh well, Russia still has two-thirds of its bombers.  Those too might be lost in some unexpected attack...

[Hydra009]

The memes in the aftermath of this are incredible!













"I will have to have that painted over, I suppose"

[Hydra009]

Welcome to logistics hell, comrade

Russian security forces launched widespread truck inspections in Irkutsk Oblast following a drone attack on military airfields housing strategic aviation, leading to massive traffic jams

Like hitting the brakes after a car accident.  Too late for that.

"There are huge traffic jams on the highways, every truck is being stopped and searched. It's a logistical collapse," he said. "These efforts are pointless—they've realized the threat too late. It's just a show of force and an attempt to look busy. In reality, Russia's security services are now helping Ukraine by deepening the economic fallout of the attack."

[Hydra009]

So much coping on Russian telegram and twitter.  I just wanna point these people in the direction of those who vow nuclear vengeance and have them fight each other in the comments about it.  Can't exactly retaliate against something that never happened, right?  I've always been of the opinion that the best defense against idiots is to turn them against each other.

Lots of people in Russia are just now figuring out that planes can be stored in hangars or that trucks should be searched and not just haul around an unknown cargo.  Woulda, shoulda, coulda.  Lots of anger, too.  But anger can't be directed at Dear Dictator, so it's instead directed at others - the truck drivers, the Russian soldiers who filmed the burning planes, etc.  All missing the real cause of the disaster, so nothing will be fixed.

The Russian delegation was noticeably less confident and arrogant at the peace talks, as Zelenskyy pointed out.  Good.

[Hydra009]

Crimea bridge attacked by Ukraine

Underwater explosion severely damaging its supports.

While it didn't go down exactly like I wanted - I was hoping for it to burn down with a full regiment and Putin on it a couple years ago - damaging it in 2023 to the point of rendering it nearly useless (they ziptied the crumbling supports lol) and then finishing the job in 2025 is also acceptable.

Man, that Russian peace delegation made a big mistake in not agreeing to Zelenskyy's terms right away.  Coulda saved Russia a lot of pain and embarrassment.  But really, everything is Putin's fault.  As he said, everything is going according to plan.  The Russians should hold him to that.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

A third round of talks between Ukraine and Russia could take place by the end of the month — but only if there are no more attacks on strategic aviation airfields, says Aleksey Chepa, first deputy head of the Russian Duma's foreign affairs committee.

The Lion, the Witch, the Audacity of this...

Just like a bully to whine and cry about getting hurt.  So long as Russian troops are on Ukrainian soil and Russian drones are operating in Ukrainian airspace, Russia entered into a state of war and war is inherently risky.  Planes are lost in war, as are airfields.  The only way to protect them is to not be at war.

[Hydra009]

How it started:



How it's going:

In his latest video, Denys essentially said that Russia's system is a failing one because a dictator selects his staff for loyalty, not competence.  So a dictator always has poor staff.  His decent generals often fall out of favor and get demoted like Popov, transferred away like Surovikin, or killed outright like Prigozhin.

And then at the bottom, you have the meatniks - fresh meat for the grinder - and ultimately, everything depends on the guys at the bottom doing a good job - but they're often poorly trained, poorly supplied, poorly motivated, terrorized by their comrades, etc.  Just not the recipe for success.

Compare that to the Ukrainians, who are promoting legendary drone unit leader Magyar to drone commander of Ukraine - a prime example of a competent leader rising to the top.  The Ukrainian soldiers also have their share of problems, but generally speaking, they operate at a higher level because they're much more motivated and innovative (and equally importantly, operate in a system where innovation is rewarded).  And depending on the unit, they're often better trained and supplied.  They have clear, concrete goals, the drive to make them reality, and increasingly, the means to make it happen.  Their success is not an accident.

[ferdmonger]

After an hour long phone call with Vlad, Donald released this: "Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the attack."

What a disgusting affront to anything this country ever stood for.

[Hydra009]

After an hour long phone call with Vlad, Donald released this: "Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the attack."

What a disgusting affront to anything this country ever stood for.

And we're really supposed to believe that 3 years in and very nearly a million troops later he's like "Alright, no more mister nice guy".  🙄

The reality is that the Russians have been doing horrible, barbaric stuff this entire time.  Them losing those bombers just makes it so they're less able to do what they've been doing.

And they actually had the nerve to call it an "escalation" when the victim fights back.  Rapist mentality and behavior on the world stage.  The world should regard them accordingly.

[Cassia]

And we're really supposed to believe that 3 years in and very nearly a million troops later he's like "Alright, no more mister nice guy".  🙄

The reality is that the Russians have been doing horrible, barbaric stuff this entire time.  Them losing those bombers just makes it so they're less able to do what they've been doing.

And they actually had the nerve to call it an "escalation" when the victim fights back.  Rapist mentality and behavior on the world stage.  The world should regard them accordingly.

I have come to expect nothing good from my intellectually bankrupt country. It's better to not even get emotionally tied to any of this. So many mindless meat puppets going through the motions of worshiping authoritarians, real and imagined. It is much easier to accept us as tribal apes doing what apes will do. Apes with books, airplanes and computers. Will Gen Z learn from all this and advance the species? Good luck with that.

[Hydra009]

I have come to expect nothing good from my intellectually bankrupt country. It's better to not even get emotionally tied to any of this. So many mindless meat puppets going through the motions of worshiping authoritarians, real and imagined. It is much easier to accept us as tribal apes doing what apes will do. Apes with books, airplanes and computers. Will Gen Z learn from all this and advance the species? Good luck with that.

This is the end result of decades of the authoritarians gathering strength before finally making their play, often unexpectedly allied with each other.  They've created quite a mess and have made some gains, but there's also a strong global reaction against them and the tide is turning. Several of them are quite old and it'll be interesting to see if this becomes dynastic, which I doubt (Vandals never have a lot of staying power)

Tbh, we needed a bit of a wakeup call.  Too many people got complacent.  And we're seeing what happens when a determined foe takes away things that were taken for granted.  Personally, it's way too many fires at once, and runs the risk of becoming normalized instead of reversed.  We'll see.

[Shiranu]

After an hour long phone call with Vlad, Donald released this: "Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the attack."

What a disgusting affront to anything this country ever stood for.

Should we repeat Vietnam, and put boots on the ground to stop them? 

Or maybe we should try the Korea strategy out again, that worked out well.

No, I have it - we will repeat the actions of the UK and France following the war to end all wars! punish the Russian people, drive them into poverty and international disgrace, and shame them until they love us! What could go wrong?

Afghanistan? Iraq? Algeria? 

Venezuela? Colombia? Nicaragua? 

Will Ukraine be a better off nation for this? Will she sleep better knowing that the last of her lands and assets have been sold off to Blackrock, her debts likewise held by them, and her culture and history destroyed, flooded by the hordes of cheap labor of the internationalist corporation?



And do you think America will stand a chance against Russia? Why - because you believe we would only fight Russia, and fight them fair?

China, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Brasil, Mexico, the Islamic wannabe-Caliphates, Neo-Nazis, communists, internationalists, anarchists... (you get the point...) parts of Europe and Canada all would have something to say about that - meaning production goes out of the door, internal strife cripples our nation, and any advantage we have from technology goes out the door.

Who does that ultimately serve? 

You can hate our position all you want, but don't dare to tell us those who sold out America and their interests represent "true Americans" and that we are something less. What bullshit.

[Cassia]

This is the end result of decades of the authoritarians gathering strength before finally making their play, often unexpectedly allied with each other.  They've created quite a mess and have made some gains, but there's also a strong global reaction against them and the tide is turning. Several of them are quite old and it'll be interesting to see if this becomes dynastic, which I doubt (Vandals never have a lot of staying power)

Tbh, we needed a bit of a wakeup call.  Too many people got complacent.  And we're seeing what happens when a determined foe takes away things that were taken for granted.  Personally, it's way too many fires at once, and runs the risk of becoming normalized instead of reversed.  We'll see.

The breadth of our learning from the past seems to be exactly one human lifetime. As soon as the generation that had to fight dictators died off, we empowered a new wave of alpha dictators. The very same tactics in full force and in full view.

"The fundamental weakness of Western civilization is empathy, the empathy exploit," Musk said. "There it's they're exploiting a bug in Western civilization, which is the empathy response."

Replacement theory, state selected press, financial grifting, erasing true history for propaganda, rampant financial political favors, persecution and villainization of certain groups (e.g. brown immigrants) is all just normal now. Personal attacks on politicians, judges, lawyers. Ditching allies and aligning with other dictators. Attacks on institutions of democracy, social services, fact gathering and international goodwill. Fear of the dear leader who wants to overlook his military parade. At least Hitler was not a draft dodger. Loyalty is all that matters and then comes the predictable and inevitable betrayal, LOL.

It's probably even worse than it appears. We are 95% new and improved Nazi-flavored already. The Boomers and late Gen X "Me Generations" living" out their idiotic fuck around and find out Christian Nationalist fantasies. Mosty because they were supposed to wear a fucking Covid mask. Now we have measles again. Not to mention the 'pull-up-the-ladder' immigrants like all the Miami Cubans who are getting their faces chewed off by leopards.

This is the best apes can do. We live on a planet where living things must consume each other. Freshest while still alive. I would feel so much better and be saved if I could just believe it is a predetermined plan controlled by a loving Canaanite storm god.

[Hydra009]

Prior to Russia's "retaliation", Ukraine destroyed/damaged three Iskander missile launchers which were poised to attack Ukraine.  They also hit the oil depot at the Engels airbase, the Dyagilevo airbase, and a war factory in Michurinsk

Despite the losses, Russia ultimately launched another major drone/missile attack on Ukraine, which killed at least 4 and wounded 80.  In contrast to Ukraine, Russia targeted civilians.  Russia launched 407 drones and 45 missiles, the majority of which were jammed or shot down, but some did get through and caused devastating explosions.  There's a pretty tragic picture of a first responder being consoled after learning that three other first responders had been killed in the strike.

What happened today is tragic and horrific and barbaric and very much in keeping with Russia's previous bombardments, which have been ongoing nearly daily for months with significantly less news coverage.  As horrible as today's bombardment was, it won't break the will of the Ukrainians (submitting to terrorists won't end the terrorism).  It also won't unburn those strategic bombers or those A-50 early warning planes.

Ukraine continues to inflict significant and lasting blows to the Russian military.  Russia continues to inflict significant blows to families.  It doesn't take a genius to figure out which one is making more progress in destroying the opponent's military forces.  At the rate they're losing equipment, it might be more and more difficult for Russia to launch attacks like this in the not-too-distant future.

Russia's hopes of conquering Ukraine are dimming and this latest salvo hasn't changed the ultimate trajectory of this war.

A Russian telegram channel FighterBomber wrote of his country's "retaliatory" strike on Ukraine (I won't link for obvious reasons) essentially calling it an underwhelming strike (I agree) and instead calls for nuclear strikes, with the goal of wiping out Ukrainian cities one by one (boy, that escalated quickly!  Also, I don't agree).  It just goes to show that Putin's madness is not limited to him.  Maybe when he's dead, Russians will come to their senses and properly blame him for everything, like Stalin.  But until then, it's very much a shared warmongering with genocidal ambitions - whether they're in the field, in an office, or at a negotiating table, it's the same mentality.