Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

The Russian delegation headed by Medinsky apparently misquoted a Chechen dissident from 1996 saying that "The Ukrainians will return and reclaim what is theirs." (he substituted Ukrianians for Russians and falsely attributed it to Otto Von Bismark).  No idea if that's an intentional twist or if he genuinely botched the quote.

The Russian delegation also said that it was foolish to expect a ceasefire to precede peace talks and that this is not how things are done historically - which really put me through a loop because afaik that's exactly how things are normally done.  Active fighting -> ceasefire -> peace talks.  Right?  I feel like I've taken crazy pills.  Though an insidious part about propaganda is that it's not always designed to convince you, sometimes the intent is to confuse you - making you feel unsure about things you're normally very sure about it.

[Hydra009]

A few updates:

In Romania, the centrist (pro-Ukraine) candidate won against the far-right candidate in fairly close run-off election.  While it's debatable whether or not the far-right candidate is pro-Russian, I can say for a fact that he has long supported redrawing borders - absorbing Moldova into Romania - and is a persona non grata in both Moldova (since 2015) and Ukraine (since 2000).  Ukraine's rationale?  "systematic anti-Ukrainian activities by this politician, which contravene Ukraine's national interests and violate state sovereignty and territorial integrity." Yikes.  The pro-Ukraine candidate has significantly better relations with Kyiv.

The inventor of the Russian Iskander missiles was killed.  Apparently, his neighbor attacked him and he died from his injuries due to a dispute where the neighbor accused him of urinating on the public stairwell.  Russian life, Russian death.  ¯\_(-_-)_/¯

Zelenskyy met with the Pope and with Canada's PM Carney

On the eve of the Putin-Trump call, Russia launched the largest drone attack on Ukraine since the start of the war.  273 Shahed drones in one night - and these have been upgraded to be more effective as well as following less predictable paths and/or being remotely steered.  It's also worth noting that Russia now uses large amounts of decoys so perhaps "largest drone attack" is a bit misleading, despite being technically true.

[Hydra009]

During Trump's call with Putin, Putin once again reiterated unreasonable maximalist demands



Nothing new here.  No word yet on any sort of pressure on Russia to cease invading Ukraine.

[Hydra009]

EU to further reduce Russian oil cap  Several outlets say the reduced maximum price will be $50/barrel.

The current cap is $60/barrel and this along with other sanctions reduced Russian exports to $94.9 billion usd in the first quarter of 2025, 6.8% less than the same quarter the previous year.  That might not sound devastating, but Russia's federal budget deficit sharply increased as a result.  We're now looking at a situation where the money isn't flowing like it once was and Putin's war chest is projected to completely run out by autumn, so keeping the war effort going after that will require significant and noticeable cuts affecting the everyday lives of ordinary Russian citizens (sounds rough, I'd hate to live in a sort of country that prioritizes war spending over healthcare and other basic needs of the people /s)

That said, Russia still has the funds to continue this war through the summer and indeed has big plans for major offensive operations all summer.  Things are going to get worse before they get better.

But Russia isn't the only one getting their tanks ready - Australia is sending its Abrams tanks to Ukraine

The US granted approval, but various US officials have "expressed frustration" about it, but the prevailing view on Telegram is that Abrams are much better than soviet tanks, despite the maintenance/logistics difficulties.  Obviously, if they weren't suitable, Ukraine would have never asked for them from Biden.  Something is better than nothing.

Belgium is sending modernized Leopard 1A5BE tanks equipped with an unmanned turret to shoot down Russian drones

I highly recommend the article, but it runs the risk of information overload for people who aren't military or tank nerds.  So I'll try to give you guys the executive summary: this tank focuses on mobility and sensors over armor.  So while it can't take as many hits as its bigger brother, the Leopard 2, it might be able to detect and engage targets from further away and then haul ass back to friendly territory hopefully shooting down any pursuing Russian drones.  That's the plan, at least.  We'll see how the test run turns out.  If it works well, expect to see a lot more of them.

Ukraine is coming up with its own innovations as well - including a flamethrower ground drone aptly named KRAMPUS

Jeez.  Between this and the "dragon" drone (a low-flying drone that rains thermite down on Russian positions) I hope the mobniks remember to take their Pervitin, because you definitely don't want either of those to catch you napping!

[Hydra009]

This was from a couple of weeks ago iirc.  But yeah, in the extended footage of that one on telegram, fpv drone strikes frequently knocked Russians off their motorcycles.  They're very lucky they could get back up and try again.

The Ukrainians have since opted for "footcrusher" drone drops that explode shrapnel mostly at around ankle-level, hence the name.  And it has a large blast radius, so the Ukrainians don't have to be particularly accurate with them.  They can inflict life-threatening wounds at around 15m-25m away.  And considering that Russian forces often bunch up with less than 5 meters between troops, it's a bad day for the whole squad if even one of them takes an accurate hit.  Even if a medic patches up anyone wounded by this, their assaulting days are over.  And that's the important part - stopping them from advancing.  Cargo 200 or cargo 300 doesn't matter so long as they're no longer attacking.

[Hydra009]

Pro-Russian Ukrainian turncoat killed in Spain

Portnov was a lawmaker in the 2000s and became deputy head of the presidential administration under Yanukovych, who fled to Russia in 2014 after cracking down on pro-EU protest movement that led to the Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine.

The United States imposed sanctions on Portnov in 2021 for alleged corruption, stating that he used his influence in the judiciary and law enforcement to gain access to Ukrainian courts and undermine reform efforts.

According to media reports, Portnov used his connections to escape Ukraine again in 2022 despite the ban on men liable for military service from leaving the country during the Russian full-scale invasion.

Ukrainian drone attack hits Russian semiconductor plant

Russians troops fake a breakthrough then die

Russian Z-military correspondents and propaganda outlets claimed their forces crossed from Donetsk into Dnipropetrovsk region near Novomykolayivka, posting a photo of Russian soldiers beside a pickup truck entangled in barbed wire as evidence.

Ukrainian DeepState analytical project, reportedly linked to Ukraine's Ministry of Defense, refuted this claim. According to DeepState, the photo was actually taken near Troitske, where Ukrainian soldiers' vehicle became entangled in barbed wire overnight. Russian troops allegedly discovered the vehicle in the morning, took photos with it, and were later eliminated by Ukrainian forces.

This is a very common practice among the Russians and often used by news outlets hungry for breaking news but not able to discern the real stuff from the fakes and then passing it along to viewers who also have that problem.  By the time it's debunked, the fake has already spread far and wide.

So once again, the photo was taken at the wrong place, by people who definitely didn't hold the territory very long.  A picture of some Russians near a truck tangled in razor wire is just that - some Russians near a truck.  This sort of fake news hinges on you the viewer assuming its context - a military breakthrough - and then accepting your own assumption.  The truck wasn't even theirs - it was a truck driven by the Ukrainian forces at night and in some mishap, it hit the razor wire and was subsequently abandoned.  The Russians merely walked up to it and took pictures.

Russian commanders are under a lot of pressure to show any sort of progress, and they often will send someone out to plant the Russian flag somewhere and snap a photo.  Sometimes, it's a real advance.  Sometimes it's not.  Sometimes, they live afterwards.  Sometimes not.  Putin gets the photo and a Roman salute and I very much doubt he ever gives it a second thought.

[Hydra009]

And in war footage news, a truck used by Russian soldiers was deploying razorwire, but it hit especially bumpy terrain and for some reason, two Russian soldiers fell out of the truckbed (the truckbed was overfull with people) onto their own razorwire.  After flailing and being dragged for a while, it appears that *something* came off one of the Russian soldiers and continued to be dragged behind the truck even as the two soldiers had mercifully come to a halt and were no longer being dragged behind the truck.  I assume it was just some of their gear...

♩♪ Dumb ways to die
So many dumb ways to die ♫♬

[Unbeliever]

Maybe all of those dead Russians will win Darwin Awards?

[Hydra009]

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Maybe all of those dead Russians will win Darwin Awards?

Doubtful it was their idea.

[Hydra009]

Covering the situation is tough to watch.

Ukraine does massive drone strike on Russia, Russia does massive drone/missile strike on Ukraine, now Ukraine is hitting Russia with drones again.  Both sides are essentially pummeling each other with long-range attacks, though I have to point out that their targets are very different.  Ukraine hits train carrying oil, Russia hits apartment complex, Ukraine hits war factory, Russia hits another predominantly civilian target.  It wouldn't be accurate to say that Russia never hits military targets, but they certainly have a rather indiscriminate, brute-force way of going about it in stark contrast to Ukraine's much more precise targeting, focusingly mainly on Russian logistics/production.  One method hurts the enemy's war effort, the other just hurts people.

Despite all the explosions, the frontlines are changing very, very slowly.  Literally slower than a snail.  Basically, an average snail headed from Belgorod to Kyiv without rest would make it there in about a year.  Russian progress is a lot slower this year than it was last year, and at significantly higher cost.  Putin is confident in his victory - an extremely delayed and costly victory - but if he gets to grab and keep land, he's happy.

Trump put a lot of pressure on Ukraine to reach some sort of ceasefire and eventually a peace deal - even went so far as to (maybe accidentally) cut Ukrainian military aid and invite Zelenskyy over just to berate him on live TV.  And time and time again, Ukraine supported a 30-day unconditional ceasefire but Russia did not let up its bombings even a single day.  Not during Putin's supposed Easter truce.  Not during Putin's supposed May 9th "victory" day truce.  In Turkey, the Ukrainian delegation asked for a 30-day ceasefire and the Russian delegation asked for more land.  Russia eventually rejected the idea of ceasefire completely and Russian state media rather bluntly stated (to Ukrainians): "You want a ceasefire — and I want you dead."  Doesn't get clearer than that.

Trump could've - and probably should've - been outraged by this rather blunt derision of his peace efforts by the Kremlin.  But he didn't seem particularly bothered by it and instead of putting diplomatic and economic pressure for Russia to come to the table, he just blamed Biden for the mess, sparking fears that Trump was disengaging from his own peace effort (suspiciously, not unlike Putin) and angling instead for a Russia "reset".

But today, it seems like Trump is finally coming around to the idea that Putin is the bad guy here.  He said he's not happy with Putin bombing Ukraine, especially Ukrainian civilians, even going so far as to say he's absolutely crazy (referring to Putin) and suggested increasing sanctions on Russia.  Actions speak louder than words.  Tbh, I'm starting to tune out his pronouncements about Russia because they so seldom result in concrete actions, just "tough talk" one day and appeasement the next.  Prove me wrong.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine no longer has any range restrictions, says German Chancellor Merz

1) Merz in favor of sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine (albeit only alongside similar British, French, and American missiles)
2) Germany classified its military aid to Ukraine

So if something were to happen, it would happen without any warning.  Just a sudden shock to the Russian war effort.  I gotta say, I like that idea.

[Hydra009]

Russia reacted to the the lack of range restrictions on Ukraine, essentially saying that it would hurt Russia's peace efforts.

What peace efforts?

Also, seems like a ploy to influence Trump by once again casting Ukraine as the aggressor (it's not) and impediment to peace.

[aitm]

Putin plays with airplanes, missiles, bombs and tanks, Trump plays with crayons.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

What peace efforts?

"Nothing more peaceful than a ..."