Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Unbeliever]

"What we have ever here is failure to communicate."

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Almost corrected you. Good play.

[Hydra009]

Careless smoking strikes again:  Huge Russian ammo depot near Moscow mysteriously blows up

Russia's military blamed the blast on ammunition which had detonated after the storage building caught fire due to a "violation of safety requirements".

That's a hell of an understatement.  100,000 tons of bombs going off and the Kremlin makes it sound like someone forgot to install railing on a walkway.

Of course, the Kremlin says no one was injured, which is a hell of a statement given that they admit that someone was screwing around to make it explode and I'm pretty sure not even The Flash could outrun that blast.  They later said 4 people were hurt but no one died.  Riiight...

Also, I have to point out that Russian journalists are threatened with fines if they share "unofficial" information about the blast, which seems like a pretty big giveaway that the official information is not truly accurate.

[Hydra009]

That facility is pretty much just a giant fire now:



I would be very surprised if more than 20% of the ammo is still intact.

[Shiranu]

No surprise to see the Ukrainians were not interested in a ceasefire, only more death. The Easter "ceasefire" was an amazing PR attempt, I'll give them that - and people sure eat it up.

https://russian-rt-com.translate.goog/ussr/article/1467494-minoborony-narushenie-peremirie-vsu?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

The Ukrainian military violated the ceasefire declared by the Russian side on the occasion of Easter 4.9 thousand times. According to the Ministry of Defense, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continued to fire artillery and strike with drones at the positions of the Russian Armed Forces and civilian objects. In addition, Ukrainian formations made six attempts to attack in the territories of the DPR and Kursk Oblast - all of them were repelled. During the Easter truce, the enemy also used 90 aircraft-type UAVs, eight of them - outside the SVO zone.

"Despite the announcement of the Easter truce, Ukrainian armed forces continued to fire artillery and strike using unmanned aerial vehicles at the positions of our troops, as well as at civilian targets in the border areas of the Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk regions and the Republic of Crimea," the defense department said.

In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted six attacks, including in the areas of the settlements of Sukhaya Balka, Bogatyr, Pershe Travnya, Belogorovka and Tarasovka (DPR), as well as in the area of Oleshnya (Kursk region), which were repelled.

The Defense Ministry specified that during the ceasefire, the enemy used 90 aircraft-type drones, eight of which were outside the SVO zone. All UAVs were destroyed.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

That's one side of it all.

[Unbeliever]

High-ranking Russian military general blown up in car explosion in Moscow

Yaroslav Moskalik, head of the main operations directorate of the Russian armed forces, died when the vehicle blew up in the town of Balashikha, Russian media reported.

The bomb had been planted in a parked car and was detonated remotely as the officer  - who lived locally  - walked past, law enforcement sources said.

[Hydra009]

Yep.  If I had a nickel for every time a high-ranking Russian military officer was killed near Moscow by an explosive-laden scooter, I'd have two nickels. Which isn't a lot, but it's weird that it happened twice.

The Ukrainians also bagged the lead designer of Russian electronic warfare

The sources from the publication note that Rytikov was responsible, among other things, for the modernization of the Russian Krasukha EW systems.

And an American fighting for Russia also died.  Weirdly enough, he was the son of a Trump regime official.  Initially something of an activist critical of the US and seemingly progressive and with humanitarian intentions, but became an avid consumer of conspiracy theories, became radicalized, and eventually wound up working for Dictator Putin.

"I find myself more and more alive by the minute. Hungry for blood and glory.

"It will be a sad day for ItthoBa'al [a name he had adopted] when the club must be passed on to the next incarnation. But as of now, I might have just incarnated in time to defeat mortality AND the military industrial complex."

When asked how he planned to defeat the latter, he said people would not believe him if he said.

At his funeral in Virginia, they didn't mention that he was fighting for the Russian military, which is understandable.  You want to mention the good parts of someone's life and not say things that would be disturbing for friends and family, so some white lies are in bounds.  Strange then that they chose to laud his "warrior spirit" without mentioning who he was fighting for or against.  I've seen a lot of footage of the carnage these people cause and the people who often get hurt or maimed or killed are often Ukrainian civilians who want peace but also want freedom from Russian occupation.  For this, Russia targets them relentlessly and brainwashed people like the above serve as useful idiots and catspaws, inflicting additional suffering into this world before they too are snuffed out.  His legacy could've been one of environmental activism and humanitarianism, instead it's unlawful aggression on behalf of a dictatorship with imperialist ambitions.

[Hydra009]

Simply put, Ukraine will not accept Russian demands.  Ukraine will make its own demands.  And we'll see what sort of deal they arrive at.  This is how negotiations work.

The other way is merely capitulation, which has its fans, especially when the victims are other people, but the Ukrainians will not agree to their own capitulation, which obviously is a reasonable and understandable position.

Also, I want to touch upon Zaluzhnyi's (former commander-in-chief of Ukraine) analysis on drone warfare.



Drones have really changed the game when it comes to modern warfare - in terms of ground operations, air operations, and naval operations.  The old way of doing things - the way most countries currently fight - is obsolete.  Russia and Ukraine are currently the only two countries that understand how to fight a modern war with current technology.  And right now, that's no one else's problem because they're focused on each other.  But if and when there is peace, Ukraine will become an invaluable ally because they have much to teach Western powers about conducting drone warfare since they have the most practical experience.  But there will likely be further aggression in the not-to-distant future and European countries, especially eastern European countries, must be ready.  Because it they fight in the old way, things will go horribly.

[Hydra009]

Trump and Zelenskyy met in Rome today - notably without JD Vance - and reportedly it was a productive talk

The US president said he doubted his Russian counterpart's willingness to end the war after leaving Rome after the funeral of Pope Francis at the Vatican.

He added: "It makes me think that maybe he doesn't want to stop the war, he's just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through 'Banking' or 'Secondary Sanctions?' Too many people are dying!!!"

I suppose even slow horses eventually find the watering hole.  The words are good, but actions are better.  It would certainly help to change people's very negative views on Trump if he were to seriously support Ukraine - perhaps by making one of those deals he says he loves and selling Patriot missiles to Ukraine if for no other reason than to make American profits great again.  Or perhaps he could come down hard on Putin - amending his previous peace plan to be a bit less favorable to Putin - a bit less rewarding of aggression.  And of course, more sanctions would be good evidence that his stance has changed.  Without evidence, it would be impossible for anyone to convincingly say that his stance has changed at all.

[Shiranu]

Well, one cannot accuse the plot of being dull...

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20241011-should-zelensky-s-government-be-afraid-of-far-right-groups

Although he didn't name names, Merezhko's words clearly struck a nerve. Dmytro Kucharchuk, a commander in the Third Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian armed forces, took to social media to call the deputy a far-left coward. Another brigade commander, Maksym Zhorin, accused Marezhko of having no idea what he was talking about, saying in no uncertain terms that yes, in fact, negotiations on Russia's conditions would always be seen as capitulation.

"As for the right wing, they are the basis of the country's security," he added.

It's not hard to see why both men would feel that Merezhko had been talking about them. The Third Assault Brigade was created by veterans of the far-right Azov Battalion as a volunteer unit following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, before being folded into the nation's armed forces. It is led by Azov Battalion founder and far-right politician Andriy Biletsky, who in 2010 reportedly called for Ukraine to "lead the white races of the world in a final crusade" against what he described as "Semite-led Untermenschen" – or subhumans.

What a shit show.

How can peace be obtained when a president is being blackmailed by multiple nations and multinational globalists to continue the war, and if peace is made the fascists (now armed to the teeth after Biden removed them as a terrorist organization) they threaten to march on Kyiv? 

I would wager a lot of the attacks on Russian civilians and on ceasefires has come from these groups intentionally sabotaging peace efforts - and they have truly been the most successful PR mission I've ever seen. 

[Hydra009]

Surprise, surprise: Russia rejects Trump's peace plan

Mouth of Putin aka Lavrov hasn't budged from Putin's maximalist demands of international recognition of Russian conquest of large amounts of Ukrainian territory - even areas not controlled by Russian forces - along with ousting Zelenskyy, neutering Ukraine's military power, canceling the arrest warrant for Putin, cancelling sanctions, returning frozen Russian funds, and a new one - security guarantees for Russia (!)

Anyone even slightly familiar with Russian Cold War negotiating recognizes this unyielding position from maximalist demands as a negotiating strategy - ask for everything and even throw in a few preposterous things, and sit and wait for someone in the West who is dumb enough or weak enough to cave.  That way, you get everything one want plus maybe a couple freebies.

Ukraine's strategy is markedly different - starting with red lines it absolutely will not accept and putting forward reasonable first step demands like unconditional ceasefire before negotiations, then making incremental pushes towards their goals.  Does their technique work?  I'll put it this way, if Ukraine asked for tanks and jets and cruise missiles on day 1 of the invasion would they realistically get them?

[Hydra009]

I agree with him that Putin appears to once again not genuinely be seeking peace - because if he were, it would take effect quickly and have an indefinite time limit - he's only calling for a time-out while he has the military marches that tankies love so much without the embarrassment of the reality of war to quite literally rain on his parade.  Nothing says winning the three-day special military operation like begging for the other side to not attack your military parade.

The part where bereaved Russian widows thank Putin was particularly infuriating/sad because it's impossible to tell if they're genuinely brainwashed to the point where they think dying ingloriously for a dictator is a noble thing or if they are simply forced to say it, insult on top of injury.  Take a good long look at this horror show, because this is what happens when democracies turn into dictatorships - lots of death and suffering and cruelty.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

A veteran of the Afghan War wrote a book about his time there. He was badly damaged by all that shit. Now a new generation gets their turn in the meat grinder.

I wrote a twenty-five page paper comparing Afghanistan to Vietnam. The prof, a self-described "hippie-at-heart" had to give me an "A" but he didn't like it. I didn't care. The son of a former commander from back in the day gave a presentation on my paper for the Naval War College. His Dad, now a retired Admiral, gave him, and me, BZ.

[Hydra009]

There was an unsuccessful assassination attempt on a notable Ukrainian activist today

He was wounded, but is expected to make a full recovery.

There is footage of the attack.  The attacker waited off to the side of the door and when Sternenko and two guards exited the building, she attempted to shoot them from behind.  Sternenko was hit, but one of the guards quickly wrestled the attacker to the ground.

It was excellent and quick-thinking work, but in hindsight, it might be a good idea to send a guard to check the vicinity beforehand instead of just walking into stuff blind.  Of course, they had no way of knowing ahead of time, but this guy has been through multiple assassination attempts so far so perhaps some extra caution is justified.