Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Well, color me surprised: Captured Chinese mercenaries say that Russia lied to them, Russia's forces are weaker than Russia claims

Two Chinese citizens captured fighting against Ukraine said they were "fed lies" by Russia and that Vladimir Putin's forces were not as strong as they claimed.

Both prisoners said they were taken captive immediately after arriving on the front line and had not killed any Ukrainian troops.

Speedrun and pacifist run.  I like it.

Asked about conditions inside the Russian camps, the Chinese prisoners described a lack of water and electricity.  Mr Wang recalled an instance when they worked until the early hours of the morning, only to be given "a pinch of raw rice".  His account is consistent with reported accounts from North Korean soldiers, who have complained of a lack of food in the Russian army.

Note that the food deprivation is bad even by North Korean standards, which really says something.

[Hydra009]

Russia threatens Poland and Baltic countries

For now, it's just sad and empty threats.  For now.

But Russia isn't slowing down at all on its war economy, nor respecting any proposed ceasefires.  In particular, Russia scales up drone production and trains up children as drone operators in preparation for future aggression.  Russia's current policy is aggression first with diplomacy as a distant second, often to wrest away territory not gained through aggression.  And you might say that Russian aggression will always meet a heavy handed response from NATO, but that is clearly not the case.  Russian missiles enter NATO airspace and Russian drones sometimes hit NATO territory.  Russia factors in the lack of response into its future planning.

[Shiranu]

I have to ask - what exactly does "victory" in Ukraine look like to you?

Is it fighting for the next 40 years as British and German generals say - that those Ukrainians not yet even born must sacrifice themselves as the bulwark of the West?

Is it the expulsion of Russian forces from Ukraine? The fall of Putin? The collapse of the Russian Federation?

Which of these is realistic? Any of them?

And if any of them succeed - what then?

A European expedition into Ukraine would have to come with China's blessing, making them our explicit enemies; the sudden fall of Putin without major safeguards in place will run the risk of leading to a far worse dictator; the collapse of Russia fundamentally shifting the global power between China and the USA.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

[Unbeliever]

I guess our defense contractors will have to find some other country to sell the Patriot missiles to. Maybe Iran will buy them?

[Hydra009]

Russia hit a clearly-marked ambulance with a drone, seriously injuring the driver and a paramedic

I bring this up because there's some speculation on the comments about the Sumy attack that maybe it was an accident - maybe Russians hit civilians by mistake when they originally intended to hit a military target (it hit the city center, near the greatest concentration of civilians and even at the best time of day to hit civilians) or maybe the missile veered off course (it was a double-tap strike, so no it didn't veer off course)

The point is, none of this stuff happens by accident.  It is deliberate cruelty and an attempt to cause mass fear.  This is also not a new thing.  This is how Russia operates.  It's just as messed up and barbaric as you think and then some.  These are the kinds of people who will be sitting at the negotiating table and who have been administering "Russian" occupied Ukraine - places like Mariupol.  There's a reason why Ukrainians fight hard and take great risks to push these sorts of people from their land.

Due primarily to strange bedfellows in D.C., I've seen this willingness to fight a defensive war in defense of their people sometimes portrayed as senseless war-mongering, as if everyone were equally responsible for the war starting and continuing (this ignores the fact that Ukraine - and only Ukraine - agreed to an unconditional ceasefire).  I've also seen support for Ukraine portrayed as support for some sort of forever war.  Musk is often the source behind that one, though I suspect it was originally written in Cyrillic.

Some people need to wake up to reality and be reminded that this is Putin's war - started by Putin, continued by Putin, and every death - Russian, Ukrainian, soldier, civilian - is ultimately his doing.  He could call it off at any moment and it would be over.  Ukraine fights only because Putin's actions have forced them to defend themselves.  And the reason the Ukrainians fight and the reason why the West supplies arms to Ukraine is simple - it's so that all of Ukraine is not like Bucha.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

US Congressman Fitzpatrick (US House Pennsylvania) made an unannounced visit to Ukraine and showed his support

Fitzpatrick has long been a staunch supporter of Ukraine, despite the deterioration of relations between Zelenskyy and Trump. While often avoiding criticizing Trump by name, he has sought to rebut much of the president's broadsides against Ukraine and its president. Trump has repeatedly blamed Ukraine for igniting the war that Russia actually started, and has attacked his Ukrainian counterpart for what he characterized as Zelenskyy taking advantage of the U.S.

"Putin, and Putin alone, should bear the economic costs of Putin's illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine," Fitzpatrick said in February. "To force Ukraine to pay these costs is the epitome of victim-blaming and victim extortion."

In March, Fitzpatrick introduced legislation to affirming non-recognition of Russian-held Ukrainian territory.  In particular, it states that Ukraine's sovereignty is non-negotiable.

Cut to Trump and Putin trying to negotiate US recognition of Ukraine's Crimea as Russia, which would legitimize the invasion and illegal occupation that took it over.

So Fitzpatrick and Trump are working at cross purposes - one to aid an ally and the other to betray an ally.  Though perhaps Trump has a different idea of who is an ally than the vast majority of Americans and even some in his own party.

[Unbeliever]

Putin called Musk an "outstanding person."
That's how you can tell when someone is evil, when they're praised by evil people.

[Hydra009]

Putin supposedly issued an Easter ceasefire (color me skeptical) but didn't give the Ukrainians much of a head's-up, just announced it to the world a scant two hours before it allegedly goes into effect.

I couldn't help but notice the timing, when the Trump administration announced that it would drop its push for a peace talks if it doesn't make any progress.

We'll see if there's progress or not, I suppose.  Putin's track record with ceasefires is...not great to put it mildly.

[Hydra009]

Looking at that article, jeez I forgot how bad American reporting is compared to European reporting.

"Shaheeds" may be a reference to Shahed drones

The Ukrainian leader did not confirm if he would observe the proposed truce.

OFC the Ukrainians would observe the truce.  Firstly, Ukraine is largely on defense.  Obviously, you don't need to fire back if no one's firing.  And secondly, it looks really really bad to violate a ceasefire.  So yeah, it's obvious that Ukraine would also observe a ceasefire if Russian forces were to truly cease fire.

Oh look, here's the Kyiv Independent saying just that.

Minutes after the start of the truce, Ukrainian units received orders to cease fire on Russian positions, a senior military officer reportedly told the BBC.

The officer said that troops were also ordered to document photo and video evidence of any Russian ceasefire violations and to return fire if necessary.

[Hydra009]

Surprise surprise, Russia violates its own Easter ceasefire

The Russians have increased their use of FPV drones during the truce.  In addition, Ukraine observed 59 artillery attacks during the truce.

Some parts of the frontline are genuinely quieter, so it's possible that Putin gave the order to stop attacks and Russian forces simply disobeyed.  While some Russian units receive orders to tell them everything down to the exact path to assault down and receive brutal punishments if the plan isn't followed to the letter, other units operate without much oversight or control - some units aren't even in regular contact with the higher ups.  At least that's the speculation.

The other explanation is that Putin was simply lying and intentionally broke his own ceasefire.  It certainly wouldn't be the first time.

Either way, it's impossible to trust Russia in general and Putin in particular.  Peace may still be possible, but Putin must die before he'll let that happen.

[Unbeliever]

Remember how Lucy always pulled the football away just as Charlie Brown tried to kick it? This is a lot like that, except this time Charlie Brown won't be fooled again.

[Hydra009]

The "ceasefire" is definitely being unevenly observed by Russian forces.

In some parts on the frontline, Russian troops moved under white flags (perfect color for them) to retrieve the fallen in no man's land and allowed the Ukrainians to do the same without hostilities.

In some parts on the frontline, Russian troops conducted armored assaults and got blown up.

To quote Zelenskyy's telegram:

Between 18:00 yesterday and 00:00 today, there were 387 shellings and 19 assault operations by the Russian army. The Russians used drones 290 times.

In general, as of Easter morning, we can say that the Russian army is trying to create a general impression of a ceasefire, but in some places it does not abandon individual attempts to advance and inflict losses on Ukraine.

Once again, this is either due to poor communication/obedience among various Russian units or Putin is intentionally screwing up his own ceasefire proposal, probably with the intention of trying to catch the Ukrainians off-guard.  Either one speaks to an inability or unwillingness to conduct serious peace initiatives.