Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nadiia,_Luhansk_Oblast

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Russian against the war living in the US detained by ICE and threatened with deportation

She allegedly had undeclared frog samples in her luggage and because of that, US officials revoked her visa.  While that's not okay, throwing her to the wolves is a hell of a disproportionate retribution.

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Minerals deal fell through again.  Reportedly, it substantially differed from what they earlier agreed on:

The Trump administration reintroduced a clause on Ukrainian subsoil resources that obliges Kyiv to repay the full amount of U.S. aid provided since the beginning of the war, which the Kiel Institute said would amount to around $123 billion.

Saddle Ukraine with crushing debt and use that as leverage to force whatever.  And given the White House's strange allegiances, that's far too much of a risk for Zelenskyy, or really, anyone sane to accept.

And that's not even getting into the possibility that the terms may imperil the economic sovereignty necessary for Ukraine to join the EU.  So not only a bad deal, but a bad deal with the potential to endanger Ukrainians.  Hard pass.

[Unbeliever]

But...but...f'King Trump ended the war in 24 hours!

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But...but...f'King Trump ended the war in 24 hours!

He actually removed the pledge to end the war in his first 100 days in office.  He's clearly no longer confident in that.  Promises made, promises deleted.

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One of Putin's limos exploded.  Sadly, he wasn't in it.

There's a lot of somewhat alarmist news about it, that it's an assassination plot by [insert noun], that the FSB HQ is under attack, etc.

All we know for now is that a car blew up.  Who knows why.  My guess, probably a complete accident, like falling out of a window.  Both things happen in Russia with some regularity.

That said, a reminder that should the very thinkable happen, there will likely be free borscht at a local restaurant.  Or at the very least, a Kyiv Mule.  In these tough economic times, we must both believe in good fortune and work to make it happen.

[Unbeliever]

Maybe it was a Tesla?

[Hydra009]

US surprised by Ukraine's Kursk offensive

US surprised by Ukraine sinking the Moskva

They were even surprised that Ukraine had Neptune missiles.

World's best intelligence, yet often completely surprised.  :/

And even worse than that, there was some tension between the Ukrainians and Americans, like for example, not "allowing" the Ukrainians to strike the Moskva.  The saying "better to seek forgiveness than permission" seems apt here.  The US is all about "recognizing the battlefield realities" then it is up to Ukraine to make those realities as favorable for Ukraine as possible.

The Ukrainians sometimes saw the Americans as overbearing and controlling — the prototypical patronizing Americans.

I mean, they're not wrong...

You can't yell at someone to do things differently while they're being attacked by a bear.  Fight alongside or get out of the way.

The Americans sometimes couldn't understand why the Ukrainians didn't simply accept good advice.

During the big 2023 counteroffensive, the Americans often recommended concentrating forces at one point along the frontline and making one big, massed push.  Looks good on paper.  Unfortunately, enemy reconnaissance is so strong that any large concentration of forces gets hit by some combination of missiles/artillery/drones.  It's a recipe for disaster in this type of war.

The Ukrainians did actually try a fairly large convoy early on in that counteroffensive.  It got spotted and hit.  Lives were lost.  Equipment was lost.  Ukraine stopped doing things that way fairly quickly, instead using smaller groups, staying highly mobile, and using clever feints and ambushes.  It worked much better.  There is a lesson to be learned from that, imho.

The Ukrainians are the ones fighting and dying as a result of their operations.  If American units were on the battlefield, then it'd be a different story, but they aren't.  The Ukrainians are the ones risking everything and bearing the outcomes of whatever advice they follow, so imho, they should follow their own advice first and foremost.

The Ukrainian perspective generally is this: "we appreciate whatever aid you give and we are thankful, but once given, everything else is our prerogative.  We our fighting for our independence, our people, and our land.  We will not accept backseat driving."

[Hydra009]

Chairborne, literally.

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Russia launched another large armored assault, despite being low on armored vehicles:

There was also footage of an armored vehicle getting knocked out only for the Russian troops to hastily pile into and on top of a second vehicle, which also got hit.  Let's just say that I'd hate to be a Russian medic.  Or mortician.  Gonna take all day just to figure out who's who.

Russian units remain fairly stagnant, as predicted.  They tend to concentrate forces to slowly overwhelm some strategic area, be it Bakhmut or Kursk, but the huge losses make for such a pyrrhic victory that they largely lose the initiative afterwards, which was the whole point.  No major breakthrough through Ukrainian lines ultimately just means feeding more bodies to the Ukrainian woodchipper and weakening their overall war effort.  Poor strategy.

Russia is currently sitting at 920k casualties (dead + wounded).  At this rate, they'll hit a million in early June.  To put these sort of numbers in perspective, a million casualties is about a third of all Russian forces (active + reserve + paramilitaries).  Russia offsets this somewhat by luring in foreigners to die for them, like North Koreans, but afaik, it's a small amount of the total - the majority of dead/wounded are Russians.

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Russkiy mir: Russian troops along the Dnipro river face severe food/water shortages due to threat of Ukrainian drones cutting off supplies

The soldier in the video says that he and his comrades have gone without food for several days due to supplies being unable to reach them, and are instead eating nettles and drinking water from shellholes

The soldier said:

Here's some water, fuck, from a puddle, swamp shit, fuck, who the fuck knows [what's in it], there was a little bleach, we fucking added it, fuck!"

Drinking bleach...

[Hydra009]

But unfortunately, the hardships are not only borne by the Russians.  In another flagrant disregard for the "ceasefire" it never intended on honoring, Russia launched a missile attack on Kryvyi Rih.  They hit a playground, killing at least 18 civilians, 9 of which were children.



This isn't an act of war.  It's an act of terrorism, of genocide.

The US - with weak leadership and uncertain stances towards its allies - put out this tweet: 

Horrified that tonight a ballistic missile struck near a playground and restaurant in Kryvyi Rih. More than 50 people injured and 16 killed, including 6 children. This is why the war must end.

Conspicuously, no mention was made about who fired the missile or who's to blame for the attack.  Linguistically, it is as if the missile fell of its own accord.  Like it's something that just happens, like rain.  Ukrainian media and Zelenskyy himself has made note of this suspicious omission. 

"Unfortunately, the response from the U.S. Embassy is surprisingly disappointing — such a strong country, such a strong people, and yet such a weak reaction. They are afraid to even say the word 'Russian' when speaking about the missile that murdered children," Zelensky tweeted in response.

Additionally, I have to ask how the US plans on ending this war.  By capitulation?  By the further loss of land and sovereignty?  Or by the loss of invading forces?  I think we can safely say that Ukrainians do not wish to be invaded or be bombed, so it's pretty clear that they don't want this war to continue.  Who wants this war to continue?  Is it the one bombing or the one being bombed?  The one invading or the one being invaded?  We can all have peace tomorrow if Putin wills it.  If you despise this war, look first to the invader and the mastermind of the invasion - Dictator Putin.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

You can tell you're in Russia by the cookie-cutter apartment buildings. Five stories, "drop out" expansion sticking out of the side. They had ONE plan for urban housing.

(Five stories because they didn't have to provide an elevator for buildings with less than six stories.)

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A cat in a doorway:  US interrupted US aid to Ukraine as part of a televised stunt, yet still wants Europeans to buy US weapons

US officials have urged European allies to continue purchasing American-made weapons, amid growing concern in Washington over new EU initiatives that may limit access for US defense firms, five sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

You know the saying, "you can only betray someone once"?  Shockingly, Europe is a bit wary of becoming dependent on the US and Trump's mercurial temperament, let alone put themselves in a position to be berated by JD Vance.

There's a cost to everything, even petty little stunts.  American firms could ultimately be harmed because of Trump's poor diplomacy.