Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Putin keeps counting 2,300 BTRs in its "reserves" that are basically inoperable

Russia, like the US, keeps its stockpiles of military vehicles in open storage where they're visible to spy satellites (it's cheaper than housing them).  Because of this, we can guesstimate how many vehicles they have and whether or not they're useable.  Granted, the spy satellite images are often very grainy and its sometime difficult to make out details.  Regardless, we know for a fact that Russian open storage facilities are largely depleted - Russia has lost about 70% of its vehicles and the remaining ones are in poor shape.

Check out this image.  I want you guys to try to count how many vehicles on this image could realistically drive out of this lot:



I say maybe 10 to 20.  And heaven help you if you want a turret, let alone fancy stuff like night vision.  (There's a reason why the combat footage is often in daylight conditions)  They look like cracked eggs.  I see waaay more scrap metal than anything roadworthy.

There's this myth that Russian reserves are infinite - that they can keep sending wave after wave and not worry about losses.  While Putin would love for you to believe that's the case, it's not reality.  Russia has inherited enormous stockpiles from the Soviet Union - tanks and missiles that were often built in Ukraine, sad to say - but Putin used this bounty poorly, wasting both vehicles and infantry.  Now, we're reaching a tipping point and Russia will either choose to send much less or be forced to send much less.  Either way, the result is the same.

If the West continues to provide substantial military aid to Ukraine, Russia will ultimately lose and lose big.

[Hydra009]

Ukrainian HIMARS strike destroys 4 Russian helicopters - two Ka-52 attack helicopters and two MI-8 transport helicopters

[Hydra009]

Ukraine sanctioned a Russian oil facility and it has been on fire for 5 days and is so heavily damaged that it may not operate again for a long time or possibly may not operate again ever.

The pipeline feeds into a system (Caspian Pipeline Consortium) with a capacity of 1.4 million barrels per day at maximum.  Not quite sure how much capacity was wiped out here, but it was significant.  To put it in perspective, the previous Ukrainian attack took 30-40% of that capacity off the table, and this one is worse.

Bottom line: significant economic loss.  And these type of sanctions stick.  Can't get a man on the inside to fix that.

Moscow said Kyiv had launched a "deliberate attack" on energy infrastructure in Krasnodar.

Btw, just so we're clear, when the Kremlin says it wants a ceasefire only on "energy infrastructure", they're talking about Russian oil facilities that fund their war and the one area where Putin knows he's getting hammered.

When it's reported in the West, "energy infrastructure" is generally understood to mean power plants and other stuff that either generates or transmits power, primarily to civilians.

What Russia targets and what Ukraine targets are not the same thing.

So this equivocation fallacy acts as a propaganda technique.  The Kremlin cries about Ukraine attacking "energy infrastructure" and the ambiguity in the word means Western audiences understand it as power plants when they're actually talking about oil infrastructure.

Putin wants maintain his free reign to bomb apartments and hospitals and schools and malls, but Russian oil refineries should be off-limits.

[ferdmonger]

Putin keeps counting 2,300 BTRs in its "reserves" that are basically inoperable

Russia, like the US, keeps its stockpiles of military vehicles in open storage where they're visible to spy satellites (it's cheaper than housing them).  Because of this, we can guesstimate how many vehicles they have and whether or not they're useable.  Granted, the spy satellite images are often very grainy and its sometime difficult to make out details.  Regardless, we know for a fact that Russian open storage facilities are largely depleted - Russia has lost about 70% of its vehicles and the remaining ones are in poor shape.

Check out this image.  I want you guys to try to count how many vehicles on this image could realistically drive out of this lot:



I say maybe 10 to 20.  And heaven help you if you want a turret, let alone fancy stuff like night vision.  (There's a reason why the combat footage is often in daylight conditions)  They look like cracked eggs.  I see waaay more scrap metal than anything roadworthy.

There's this myth that Russian reserves are infinite - that they can keep sending wave after wave and not worry about losses.  While Putin would love for you to believe that's the case, it's not reality.  Russia has inherited enormous stockpiles from the Soviet Union - tanks and missiles that were often built in Ukraine, sad to say - but Putin used this bounty poorly, wasting both vehicles and infantry.  Now, we're reaching a tipping point and Russia will either choose to send much less or be forced to send much less.  Either way, the result is the same.

If the West continues to provide substantial military aid to Ukraine, Russia will ultimately lose and lose big.

Hey, a nut here and a bolt there and this slag heap is ready to rock. 

[Unbeliever]

Yeah, they could get all the nuts and bolts they need from Boeing! 🤣

[Dark Lightning]

Don't know about bolts, but a lot of nuts could be shipped. We could start with that war planning session that the bigwigs invited the senior Atlantic reporter to. Fucking incompetent nuts.

[Unbeliever]

Yeah, I just watched Kimmel and Colbert talking about that.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine's growing military strength is an underrated factor in peace talks

Ukraine's military has also evolved dramatically over the past three years to become by far Europe's biggest and most effective fighting force.

Ukraine currently has approximately one million people in arms defending the country against Russia's invasion. This makes the Ukrainian Armed Forces more than four times larger than Europe's next biggest military. Ukraine's troops are also battle-hardened and have unmatched knowledge of the twenty-first century battlefield. Indeed, in many areas, they are now setting the standards for others to follow.

The results have been striking. In 2025, the overall capacity of Ukraine's defense industry is expected to reach a new high of $35 billion, up from just $1 billion at the onset of Russia's full-scale invasion. While this capacity is not yet being fully utilized due to defense budget limitations, Ukraine now produces around one-third of all weapons, ammunition, and equipment used by the country's armed forces. In critical areas such as drone production, the figure is now close to one hundred percent.

While nobody in Kyiv would relish the grim prospect of fighting on without Western assistance, the country is far from defenseless and will not accept a bad peace that places Ukrainian statehood in jeopardy.

Which is why Trump's rush to a peace at any cost (costs not paid by him, of course) is a bad idea.  For now, Ukraine is willing to make some concessions to reduce long-range strikes primarily targeting civilians and ensure safe passage of civilian vessels in the Black Sea (sea trade is the lifeblood of commerce), but Ukraine will NOT be pressured into a rushed deal with Moscow tantamount to capitulation.  Russia will accept nothing less than annexation of vast swathes of Ukraine - some that don't even have Russian boots on the ground - and Ukraine will simply not give those territories up at the negotiating table, even with Trump applying pressure.  An impasse is highly likely.

If Trump presses Russian demands, Trump will simply no longer be a relevant party at negotiations.  And if Trump again threatens to take all his toys and go home, that may ultimately be what happens - if the US wishes to cede yet more influence to our European allies and alienate the rest of our allies.

I can't say for certain how Europe would resolve the conflict, but it seems that the strategy of exhausting Russia appears to be working and Russia will simply have to pick and choose what it can afford to keep and what it can't.  A much faster and sensible round of peace talks would be the likely ultimate resolution to that problem.

[Hydra009]

In Ukrainian circles, despite the loss of Kursk, Ukraine is steadily regaining the initiative in this war.  Previously in this war, Ukraine has almost entirely been playing defense, allowing the Russians to choose where the battles are fought and simply reacting to that.  Now, Ukraine is able to launch its own battles, allowing Ukraine more ability to stabilize the frontline.

And there's a cost to everything.  Russia was able to retake Kursk only buy concentrating a lot of forces there that otherwise would have fought in Ukraine.  Russia's other fronts in Ukraine made very little or no progress while battles in Kursk were going on.  So just like in Bakhmut, Russia wins another "victory" at high cost and a loss of battlefield momentum.

[Hydra009]

For once, it comes out the other end:  Dictator Putin allegedly falls down stairs and soils himself, prompting renewed health fears

[Unbeliever]

I read this morning that Zelenskyy said Putin would be dead soon. Can't be soon enough for me!

[Hydra009]

Can't go back, Bob:



US negotiators are playing real fast and loose if they promise sanctions relief from countries that aren't the US.  Huge faux pas.

And obviously, sanctions relief should only happen when there's no more invading, murdering, and looting.  You can't make peace while still waging war.  You have to pick one.

And to be perfectly honest, I'm not sure lifting sanctions is even realistically possible with Ukrainian children still held captive and some Ukrainian cities (Mariupol, Melitopol, and Sevastopol) still lying in ruins.  Russia withdraws, returns kidnapped Ukrainians, makes reparations, Ukrainians are allowed to live in peace and rebuild, then we can talk about possibly lifting sanctions.

There's footage of Russian forces pretty recently posing with the skull of a child (almost certainly Ukrainian since it's in occupied Ukraine).  I don't know if any return to business as usual is wise, considering where those payments go, but apparently multinationals are fine with whatever, which is part of the reason why this is going on.

[ferdmonger]

I read this morning that Zelenskyy said Putin would be dead soon. Can't be soon enough for me!

Natural causes or otherwise...  I don't care either way.

[Hydra009]

Guten tag.  Sie können hier nicht parken:  Germany seizes Russian shadow fleet oil tanker

Happened about a week ago, but I missed it.  Germany is taking an especially hard line on Russian sanctions-skirting.  Good for them.

Moscow has no information about the ship and no knowledge about its owner or reasons for its seizure, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday, responding to a Reuters query.

Good.  Then they won't miss it.

Spiegel reported that a confiscation order has been issued for the tanker, meaning the vessel and its cargo of around 100,000 metric tons of oil, worth some 40 million euros ($43.33 million), now become German property.

That $40 million would really help out the Ukrainians.  I gotta laugh at the people who think we can't afford to help out Ukraine.  If that's so, then all the more reason to stick Putin with the bill.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

I read this morning that Zelenskyy said Putin would be dead soon. Can't be soon enough for me!

"Better the devil you know..."?