Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Dark Lightning]

I say Ukraine rain as much destruction on Russia, and as deeply and destructively as possible, hopefully striking some city where the chump happens to be sucking Putin's cock visiting.

[Hydra009]

So much for Russia not attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure.  The POS couldn't even wait a day before reneging on his own pledge.

Well, at least now the world knows who they're dealing with.  This guy is very much opposed to a ceasefire, let alone peace, and is actively sabotaging such efforts.  He is still committed to his maximalist goals.  He's content with nothing less than full victory over Ukraine and he thinks he's either going to get through outright conquest in the near-term or piecemeal at the negotiating table over the long-term.  For now, he's sticking to plan A.

[Hydra009]

Trump-Putin phone call a flop according to German Defense Minister

The White House described the call as the first step in a "movement to peace" that it hopes will lead to a full and lasting end to the fighting.  But there was no indication that Putin has backed away from his conditions for a prospective peace deal, which are fiercely opposed by Kyiv.

Actions speak louder than words.

Putin during the call reiterated his demand for an end to foreign military and intelligence assistance to Ukraine, according to the Kremlin.

Trump, though, denied that the subject came up during an interview with Fox News on Tuesday. "We didn't talk about aid," Trump said. "We didn't talk about aid at all."

Someone is lying here, and it's genuinely tough to tell because I mean, both have a reputation for lying.  "Eating the cats and dogs" VS "special military operation going as planned".  Tough call.  I suppose we'll find out in the fullness of time.

[Hydra009]

One good thing that's happened lately is that Ukraine and Russia exchanged prisoners again, as they have been off and on throughout the war.  This one was an unusually large one and even exchange - 175 Ukrainians for 175 Russians.  Ukraine got a hell of a bargain, given their relative utility.

The released Ukrainian servicemen had been captured while defending multiple regions, including Mariupol, the Azovstal steel plant, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Kursk.

So all over.  And Mariupol/Azovstal are especially important PoWs due to their heroic last stand and legendary reputation among Ukrainians.  And because this group was often deliberately held back by Putin while blaming Kyiv as a way to sow discontent among the Ukrainians with Kyiv.

This exchange had been planned since February, so it's not a spontaneous thing and unrelated to the Trump-Putin phone call, just fyi.

[Unbeliever]

Trump-Putin phone call a flop according to German Defense Minister
I suppose we'll find out in the fullness of time.

Yeah, we'll have to wait until the wave function collapses.

[Hydra009]

Zelenskyy has said that the recognition of temporarily-occupied Ukrainian territory as Russian is a red line for them. 

Kind of obvious, but with the scramble for "peace in our time" such things must be stated bluntly, lest they be taken as debatable.  There's no limit to the amount of other people's land they're willing to give away.

I know if the shoe were on the other foot and Mexico took 20% of the US - from Texas to Florida to NC - no one would be okay with a "compromise" solution where only some US territory is gone.

Turkish leader Erdogan once again reiterated that Turkey supports Ukraine's territorial integrity.  He's certainly consistent, which is more than I can say for some.  I know that Turkey has its share of internal problems, but its foreign policy towards Ukraine is commendable.

[ferdmonger]

This whole thing is just shenanigans.  A sovereign country was invaded with its soldiers running rampant and committing atrocities.  Any sane discussions begin with the return of stolen land and reparations.  Let Putin begin back-peddling from there.   

[Hydra009]

I think I figured out the mystery of why Europeans are suddenly leery of buying American military hardware.

"Our allies are calling constantly—they want to buy them also. Certain allies, we will be selling them, perhaps, a toned-down version. We like to tone it down about 10%, which probably makes sense, because maybe some of them are not our allies, right?"

"Hey, wanna buy a crappy version of our new plane?" - Genius businessman and 10d chessmaster (more like 10d IQ points)
Hypothetical question: do you guys think European defense companies intentionally hobble their products?  Cause if not, there's a very obvious disadvantage to this approach.

Also, I really want him to go into specifics here.  What countries won't be our allies?  UK?  France?  Germany?  Japan?  South Korea?  Poland?  Pick and country and tell me why it's not in our best interests to be allied with them.

[Unbeliever]

f'King Trump wants to ally with Russia, China, and North Korea.

[ferdmonger]

But in his defense, he's utterly fucking insane. 

[Unbeliever]

But in his defense, he's utterly fucking insane. 

Not guilty by reason of Insanity?

[ferdmonger]

Invoking the 25th would be a good starting point. What man starts trade wars with our biggest partners with a booming economy, threatens Greenland and Panama, and claims we're going to clean up and own Gaza and it won't cost a penny. If Biden had done these things, MAGA would be screaming for intervention. 

[Hydra009]

threatens Greenland and Panama

And Canada.  Quite a bark on a small dog.

I wish I had saved it, but on Telegram, Russian officials said that those sorts of threats "suit our purposes" since they legitimize land-grabbing.

[Hydra009]

Despite the "ceasefire", Russia remains very active on the battlefield and interested in bombing Ukrainian civilians.

Russia launched a massive drone attack on Odessa

Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military analyst, told Reuters that Russia used new tactics for the attack, having its drones descend from a higher altitude than usual and at high speeds to make it harder for Ukraine's air defences.

While it's fun to point at donkeys on the battlefield and have a good laugh, the truth is that Russian tactics are evolving and becoming much more dangerous and Western countries are not fully prepared.  Ukraine is taking the brunt of it right now, but in the future, they could be used on other targets, possibly Polish or Baltic cities.  No one is fully ready to deal with this sort of threat, which is why it must be defeated in Ukraine.

Russia also launched a drone attack on Kyiv

And as is typical for Putin's "hybrid warfare" approach, Russia fights not only with missiles and drones and not only against Ukraine - Russia has been behind a sabotage campaign in Europe to disrupt military aid or simply to reduce popular support for Ukraine.  59 incidents linked to the Kremlin so far.

The incidents range from stuffing car tailpipes with expanding foam in Germany to a plot to plant explosives on cargo planes. They include setting fire to stores and a museum, hacking that targeted politicians and critical infrastructure, and spying by a ring convicted in the U.K.

The cases are varied, and the largest concentrations are in countries that are major supporters of Ukraine.

Some incidents had the potential for catastrophic consequences, including mass casualties, as when packages exploded at shipping facilities in Germany and the U.K. Western officials said they suspected the packages were part of a broader plot by Russian intelligence to put bombs on cargo planes headed to the U.S. and Canada.

In another case, Western intelligence agencies uncovered what they said was a Russian plot to kill the head of a major German arms manufacturer that is a supplier of weapons to Ukraine.

Officials from Estonia, Poland, Latvia and Finland, meanwhile, have accused Russia and Belarus of directing migrants to their borders.

There's video evidence of the Polish border attack, with footage of uniformed Belarusian troops herding migrants, who later attack Polish border guards.

To quote wiki:

Belarus state involvement was suspected from the very beginning of the crisis. Lukashenko personally confirmed that the involvement of Belarusian border troops is "absolutely possible" shortly after numerous videos appeared online showing Belarusian border guards assisting migrants in crossing the border and preventing them from returning to Belarus

In November, several recordings appeared on social media showing Belarusian soldiers shooting near immigrants in order to intimidate them, recorded from both the Polish and Belarusian sides of the border. The Times reported about migrants brought to the border at gunpoint or trucked by people wearing balaclavas; the migrants were then additionally given planks to cross a small border river called Svislach. Later in the crisis, the migrants would be given tools to destroy the border infrastructure.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus%E2%80%93European_Union_border_crisis

Additionally, Russia is responsible for an operation to meddle in Germany's election and against support for Ukraine

And Germany is far from alone in election meddling.  Poland reported something similar:

Last month, Warsaw said it had identified a Russian group tasked with influencing Poland's upcoming presidential election through disinformation and stoking instability.

[Hydra009]