Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Wet Bandits eliminated:  Ukrainian forces managed to somehow take a Russian command and control center by surprise, reportedly formerly belonging to Russia's 429th motorized rifle regiment. (no link because very NSFW)

Two Russian soldiers - let's call them Harry and Marv - are very "sleepy" at their chairs.  Whatever happened was very quick and unexpected, with no discernable battle damage to the post itself - the only noticeable change is to its occupants.  Very professionally done.

Apparently, Ukrainian special forces operate much closer to the Russians than they think and they also operate undetected.  That's a very powerful combo!

[Hydra009]

Mouth of Sauron: "Russia is ready to negotiate with both Ukraine and Europe, but combat will only stop with a result that satisfies Russia," – Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

The second statement contradicts the first, because if they were willing to stop fighting, they'd be willing to stop fighting in order to have productive talks.  Apparently, Russia remains uninterested in a ceasefire.

[Hydra009]

Third time's a charm: Ukraine approves minerals deal with US

Under the terms of a draft minerals agreement, according to sources familiar with its contents, the United States and Ukraine would establish a Reconstruction Investment Fund to collect and reinvest revenues from Ukrainian sources including minerals, hydrocarbons and other extractable materials.
Ukraine would contribute to the fund 50% of the revenue minus operating expenses and continue until the contributions reach the sum of $500 billion. The United States would provide a long-term financial commitment to the development of a "stable and economically prosperous Ukraine."
Asked what Ukraine would get in return for the minerals deal, Trump cited what he said was $350 billion already provided by the U.S. "and lots of ... military equipment and the right to fight on."

"the right to fight on" is definitely Trump's rather unique "weave" language, because I guarantee that no Ukrainian would come up with that one.  Ukraine has been fighting on with US aid and for a time without US aid (it was shut off for months due to Congressional squabbling).  Ukraine does not receive the right to fight on from anyone.

[Hydra009]

Z-blogger talking about Russian soldiers advancing and dying or becoming wounded "for what"

Shoulda asked yourself that every single day of the special military operation.  If you plant and water a dead and rotten tree for years on end, you can't then be mad that it fails to bear fruit.  You reap what you sow.  Plant a lie, reap disappointment.

[Hydra009]

BYOD (Buy Your Own Donkey):



Currently, that's about $460 usd.  And yes, they're really using them.  There's footage of a Russian on foot struggling to get one to budge as Ukrainian drones fly overhead.  There's also new footage of Russians on horseback and another one driving some sort of go-cart-like contraption, to laughter and jokes from other Russian onlookers.  The laughter before the crying.

Headed west (gravestone inscription):



Not sure if this is intended to be sarcastic or not, but one Z-blogger notes that an entire Russian convoy was destroyed on the way to the frontline - i.e. within Russian-occupied territory, not the no-man's-land.

Lvov is a Russified spelling of Lviv, a city in western Ukraine close to Poland and far from the frontlines.  Taking it is so far removed from reality that one might as well talk about also taking Berlin and London.

Nikolaev is a Russified spelling of Mykolaiv, a city in southern Ukraine close to Odessa that was perilously close to the frontlines at one time and sieged by Russian forces, but Russian forces were ultimately repelled towards Kherson to the south and eventually also driven out from Kherson retreating to the other side of the Dniper river, where they remain.

And finally, Lozova is a city in Kharkiv region that afaik never fell under Russian occupation, so I'm not sure what he means by "liberated".  Though it's unfortunately common for Ukraine to have several settlements with the same name (Greenville syndrome) so perhaps he's referring to a small town held by the Russians.

[Hydra009]

Trump lackey can't say if Russia invaded Ukraine

I saw some footage of this and it's embarrassing.  When asked this softball question, the guy (not gonna bother memorizing the name, since odds are high that he'll be Scaramucci'ed) let out a sigh and struggled to find words and then struggled again to find sentences.  To our enemies - a weak, ineffectual showing.  Makes us look incredibly vulnerable.  To our allies, utterly exasperating, demonstrating either a lack of will or awareness, either of which make us an unreliable ally.  And to the Ukrainians, many of whom have lost a loved one or know someone who has, it's unmistakable cowardice and craven bowing to the aggressor - to murderers, thieves, and rapists.

It's no wonder that Ukrainian soldiers have started to remove their US patches - previously worn with pride and gratitude for US assistance against the aggressor, now shocked and dismayed to find the US stance fluid and changing based on whatever Putin whispers in Trump's ear.  Years of built-up goodwill, wasted by poor leadership.

[Hydra009]

There are a couple videos of a lone Russian troop surviving his convoy's destruction.

The first one had a before/after and the before is all smiles and laughs and the after is 500-yard stare territory.  The second one was just an after with no before and he calmly says that it's "a mess" and that he's wounded in the leg while smoking a cigarette and artillery is still raining down in the background.  Finally, he says "it's all right" and makes that weird surfer thumb-and-pinkie extended gesture with the fakest smile I've ever seen in my life before shutting off the phone.  I get the distinct impression that things are not actually all right.

On the lighter side of things, the Russians made an improvised bazooka and decide to test-fire it.  I'm not sure, but it appears that they had the bright idea of sealing the back end - you know, the part where the backblast escapes from.  For those with a passing familiarity with physics, Newton's third law causes some "light recoil" in that scenario.  Basically, it's a fun way to dislocate your shoulder and/or perform an instantaneous facial cosmetic procedure.  Truly, Wile E. Coyote stuff.

Edit- apparently, the Russian soldier was trying to fire a Soviet S-8 rocket, which were intended to be fired by helicopters, not people.  The huge muzzle velocity - much larger than normal manpads - is the primary reason for the dangerously high recoil.

[Hydra009]

A small man with a big mouth:



The Zelenskyy-trump meeting Oy vey, where to begin...

For starters, I'll start with the global reactions.  Our adversaries, Medvedev (former Russian puppet president under Putin) and China both reacted with glee, while our allies were appalled.  Ukrainians are angry and rightfully so, at the shameful and ungrateful way their wartime leader was treated.  That right there is enough for me to say that this was a victory for Putin, handed to him on a silver platter by Trump.  Shameful.  Reckless.  And against the overall wishes of the American people, who generally support Ukraine and Zelenskyy and don't see Putin in a favorable light.

Prior to the meeting, Trump was asked by a reporter about his comment that Zelenskyy was a dictator and did one of those smug "did I say that??" gaslight things.  Yeah, we all know you said it.  Either be a man and admit you were a dumbass or keep digging your hole and lie in it.  You don't get to have always been at war with east asia one day and at have always war with eurasia the next.

Also, a TASS (Russian state media) guy somehow wandered in despite not having any authorization, but at least he was reportedly asked to leave before the end of the meeting.  Russians overstaying their welcome is a familiar sight for Zelenskyy and I'm sure he has that in common with White House staff.

The meeting started off okay, with Trump greeting Zelenskyy and exchanging the normal pleasantries, though even that's difficult with someone like Trump.

Zelenskyy showed photos of malnourished and tortured Ukrainian PoWs, which to normal people, evoke feelings of compassion and empathy, but man, Zelenskyy misjudged this regime cause that sort of thing is just their ASMR.

Basically, it was all this weird sort of verbal ambush after that.  I'm not going to do a play-by-play but especially galling were the accusations that Zelenskyy was somehow "disrespecting" the Oval Office by accusing Putin of war crimes.  Stupid.  You can't solve a problem unless you're honest about what the problem is.  Not to mention felon-in-chief has been doing a lot to bring the Presidency and US as a whole into disrepute.  Then there's the idiotic "why are you not wearing a suit?" thing.  First off, is attire the top priority here?  He could be wearing a Packers jersey and it wouldn't be an important thing to discuss.  And Heaven forbid that the guy who visits warzones is unfashionably dressed.  Then Vance accuses Zelenskyy of being ungrateful, as if he hadn't been thanking countries for support the whole time.  Do me a favor and google "Zelenskyy thanks" and I guarantee you'll see plenty of examples.  Hell, a huge portion of his telegram feed is just giving thanks to the Ukrainian military, to various Ukrainian officials, and to countries supporting Ukraine.

These accusations are bullshit, and everyone in the room knows it (with the possible exception of the TASS guy) - deliberate lies intended to erode American popular support for Zelenskyy, likely as a prelude for going after Ukrainian aid.  This is betrayal of our key ally.  I won't have it.  I know the score and you do, too.  Putin launched a campaign of naked aggression to remake the global order, starting with Ukraine.  Lots of troops, tanks, and armored vehicles - which would otherwise go who knows where are contained in Ukraine's east, though this was achieved at great cost by the Ukrainians.  Europe and the US have a lot more to thank Zelenskyy for than the other way around.

[Unbeliever]

Trump doesn't want to end the war unless Russia wins it.

[Hydra009]

I'm really worried about the aftermath of this ambush "meeting".

The US completely shuttered an initiative to restore Ukraine electric grid.  Trump is apparently joining Putin in wanting Ukrainian civilians to suffer to generate discontent to force a truce unfavorable for Ukraine.  In general, that seems to be exactly how Trump is behaving - undermine Ukraine, spread fear and uncertainty about Ukraine, and then force a "peace" deal not much different from surrender.

Secondly, the Trump regime no longer moves to defend against Russian cyber threats.

A person familiar with the matter who spoke to the Guardian on the condition of anonymity said analysts at the agency were verbally informed that they were not to follow or report on Russian threats, even though this had previously been a main focus for the agency.

The person said work that was being done on something "Russia-related" was in effect "nixed".

And unsurprisingly, the "raw earth" minerals deal fell through, for the time being.

I just want to remind everyone that we have these alliances in Europe and Asia for two very, very good reasons: 1) "the great war" and 2) "the great war part 2".  After the first one, Europe was in ruins.  After the second one, much of the world was in ruins.  After the third one...well, let's hope the astronauts on the ISS remember us kindly.

If Ukraine is betrayed and its military aid is cut off by Trump, this will not just endanger Ukraine, but the entire world.  If allies do not protect allies, then the alliance system that has kept a lot of stability in the world is finished.  Without alliances, the only ways countries can be assured to their own protection are through strong conventional forces (huge military expenditures at the expense of their other interests, as Americans are familiar with) and/or acquiring nukes.  Ukraine already regrets its decision to give up its nukes in exchange for worthless words that no one would invade.  Other countries are likely already making similar calculations, especially militarily weak ones near aggressive countries.  What will happen when war breaks out again?

[Hydra009]

JFC, it gets worse the more of this ambush-meeting I see.

Crimea takeover in 2014 or 2015?  If this were Biden, it'd be frontpage news along with accusations of dementia and calls to resign.  Trump screws up basic facts and no one bats an eye.

Vance has sort of a point in that Biden's approach wasn't completely successful - but he uses it for baseless conclusions.  "Let's try diplomacy!"  Do you not think that was the first thing every world leader already tried?  Hell, even China has tried to de-escalate to no avail.  Why repeat those mistakes?

Biden's approach didn't work very well because he provided aid late and generally in small batches.  It obviously helps, but it doesn't dramatically change the situation.  And obviously, we have to talk about the MAGA camp - at Trump's insistence - stopping US aid entirely for months, effectively cutting off Biden's efforts at the knees.  I noticed Vance didn't mention that part.

A truly different approach would be to swing the other way and dramatically scale up military aid and cause such a dramatic change on the battlefield that Putin would have no other choice but to concede much of his ill-gotten territory at a peace summit.  Putin fears that and a weak leader like Trump is a huge reassurance for him and allows him to keep the war going for longer or force Ukraine into an unfavorable ceasefire, whichever he prefers.

[Hydra009]

And one last thing about this topic, this moronic maga idea that Zelenskyy is some sort of warmonger who doesn't want peace (a lie also said about Biden or anyone else who militarily supports Ukraine, which tells you exactly where it's coming from: Россия)

In reality, Zelenskyy has prepared to sit down and talk with Putin many times throughout this war.  But let's say that purely hypothetically, Zelenskyy is the biggest warmonger who ever lived.  He didn't send Russian "little green men" into Luhansk and Donestk.  He didn't invade Crimea.  He didn't annex Luhansk and Donestk.  He didn't "annex" (not under full control) Kherson or Zaporizhzhia.  He didn't launch the 2022 invasion or continue it for years.  He did invade Kursk region, but that's incredibly minor compared to everything else.  But at the end of the day, all Putin has to do is withdraw his forces and the war's over and Ukraine similarly leaves Russia.  Zelenskky can't continue the fighting without Putin already deciding to continue the fighting.

So if you truly want peace in Ukraine, and you're honest about it, tell the Russians to pull out, don't wag your finger at Zelenskyy.  If you're honest, your starting point has to be Putin.

[Unbeliever]

Trump has never been honest in his life.

[Hydra009]

Zelenskyy with a truer friend (UK PM Starmer)

"I hope you heard some of that cheering in the street," the British prime minister said after hugging the Ukrainian president in view of the cameras.

No drama.  No concern for ratings (bad priorities).  Just world leaders behaving as world leaders and adults behaving as adults.

[Hydra009]

Meanwhile, Vance flees to undisclosed location

Zelenskyy faced invasion and famously refused to run, he stood his ground bravely like that famous photo with him and the his ministers outside at night in Kyiv early in the invasion in 2022 or that time a Russian missile almost hit his convoy while with Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis in 2024.

Meanwhile, Vance runs like a coward from disapproving citizens in a country not at war.  It makes sense that he's never been to Ukraine - he probably can't even handle Lviv.