Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Need a pager, too?

Update: 8 Russian soldiers were blinded by this exploding FPV goggles

The first case of detonation of an improvised explosive device embedded in glasses was recorded on February 4 in the Belgorod oblast.

As a result of the explosion, a serviceman suffered injuries to his face and eyes.

Between February 4 and February 7, seven more explosions of similar devices were recorded in Kursk, Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

The sender of the parcels (I'm just going to call him The Courier) took a flight from Moscow to Istanbul after dropping off the "donations" on February 3.

Turkey has really been doing a bang-up job lately.  Eight wounded Russian soldiers might not seem like a game-changer and it's not, but skilled drone operators take a LOT of time and money to develop.  Plus, every frustration of Russia's war effort is a good thing.  I've briefly seen footage of Russian drone operators deliberately target civilians in Kherson and elsewhere, so them being wounded and unable to continue their operations ultimately saves lives, especially civilian lives.

[Hydra009]

Trump once again accused Ukraine of starting the war  (after previously blaming Biden and Ukraine's push for NATO membership, which doesn't even make internal sense given that both Finland and Sweden recent joined NATO without incident)

Zelesnkyy points out (correctly, imho) that Trump is living in a Russian information space.  I mean, when he's spouting literal Kremlin propaganda, it's hard to argue that he's not under Russian influence.  And it's not like his record was spotless before now - he's been publically asking Russia for help since 2016 and who knows what before that.

Trump, ever eager to trade barbs like the spoiled yet inexplicably aggrieved baby he truly is called Zelenskyy a "dictator" and that he has a 4% approval rating (8 years ago, Trump was sworn in with the lowest approval rating of any US President.  A month ago, Trump was sworn in with the second-lowest approval rating)

He also said that Zelesnkyy was doing a terrible job, which is especially galling considering that in the early stages of the war, most western countries assumed Ukraine would be overrun and Kyiv taken, but Zelenskyy famously refused to be evacuated and repelled the however many miles-long Russian convoy inching towards Kyiv.  One can only imagine what Trump would do in a similar situation.

Zelenskyy still enjoys broad popular support within Ukraine and without (the sort of popularity Trump can only envy), though years of war have naturally dulled that initial wartime boost.

In short, my thoughts are that Putin sucks and anyone who supports him sucks.  Slava Ukraine.

[Hydra009]

The Ukrainians continue to be inventive - they managed to modify an anti-tank mine, attached it to a drone, and dropped it into a house full of Russian soldiers.  The pressure wave went through all the doors and windows.  Quite a show-stopper.

[Hydra009]

Inconsistent allies get shamed - by Ukraine, by western Europe, by the world.  Definitely a blunder for the US.

Also, Denys reaction is pretty typical for Ukrainians.  The more Trump attacks Zelenskyy, the more popular Zelenskyy becomes.

[Hydra009]

Trump Gave Europe Three Weeks to Sign Off on Ukraine 'Surrender': MEP

Granted, this is unsubstantiated so far - I guess we'll know one way or the other in 3 weeks.  Though this sort of thing shouldn't be as plausible at all.  It certainly wasn't under Biden.

[Hydra009]

Elon having a meltdown because he got fact-checked for spewing nonsense about Zelenskyy.  Naturally, he wants to "fix" community notes to protect his fragile ego.

Musk went on to suggest that Zelenskyy would lose in an election (to who?  Tellingly, he doesn't say. Perhaps he imagines that Putin is on the ballot)

The real reason there's not a new election, is of course that the country is at war and under martial law, and it's against the law to hold an election during martial law.

And just to zoom out and think about this for a second.  The country is being bombed.  Lots of people are refugees within the country (e.g. fleeing from the Russian-held eastern Ukraine to western Ukraine) or refugees residing in other countries (Denys left Kyiv to live in France during the war, and not long before that, he was able to take a walk to see an apartment building that had been struck by a Russian missile).  The military is quite busy in trenches or on the move near the frontline or training, either in Ukraine or other countries.  This isn't exactly a fantastic time for a quick questionnaire, even assuming you can track down everyone.  And packing lots of people in very easily-identifiable places while under threat of Russian missiles isn't exactly a smart idea, either.

I mean, FFS, the very article I linked has this telling passage:

The writing of this very article was disrupted by a Russian missile salvo on Lviv, which killed 10 people (as of this writing) and rocked the authors' windows. The disruptions from air raids would make reliable voting, counting, and tabulation across the country simply impossible.

If you can't type up an article in peace, you sure as hell can't vote in peace.

Foreign Policy is a bit less charitable than me, darkly noting that forcing a change in power is a familiar ploy from the Russian playbook.

Whether it's Ukraine or Germany, nazi-salute Musk seems suspiciously interested in elections around the world.  No doubt he wishes for a new administration that's more friendly to his strange ideas of how countries should be run.  Perhaps he does more than wish...

[Unbeliever]

Elon having a meltdown because he got fact-checked for spewing nonsense about Zelenskyy.  Naturally, he wants to "fix" community notes to protect his fragile ego.

But I recall Musk saying that he'd get things wrong and that he should be corrected when he does.
Or did he simply mis-speak?

[Hydra009]

Russia reportedly demanded the withdraw of NATO forces from eastern Europe as a precondition to normalizing relations

MFer, YOU'RE the one under sanctions. YOU'RE the one with a crumbling economy.   YOU'RE the one at fault.  YOU'RE the one who has to make concessions.  We don't owe you anything.  You're doing a ceasefire AND paying reparations just to even get us to think about dropping sanctions.

The US reportedly rejected this demand, but jeez, what a friggin' no-brainer.  The nerve!  If it were me, I'd threaten a new sanctions package every time I hear something like this.  It's very simple.  Russia plays nice, pressure on Russia eases.  Russia misbehaves, pressure ramps up.  That's how you potty-train a feral bear.

[Hydra009]

News link

This is good news.  Kellogg seems like one of the more reasonable people in the regime (I note that he wasn't at the US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia) and seems to have handled a discussion with an ally in an adult way and without threatening them, which is an incredibly low bar to clear but here we are.

[Unbeliever]

Zelenskyy should certainly not trust anything Trump (or anyone in his administration) says. Any Trump guarantee should be listened to about as much as one would listen to the boy who cried "Wolf!"

[Hydra009]

Ukraine Matters weighed in on probable US foreign policy after the elections but before Trump soiled the bed.  He predicted that US foreign policy would be less "what can I do for you?" and more "what can you do for me?".  I know full well that US foreign policy isn't exactly altruistic, but it's not explicitly selfish, either.  Trump would essentially go mask-off in that direction - very blatantly self-centered.

In theory, Ukraine would absolutely make some sort of deal for additional aid.  Plus, it's not necessarily bad for the US to have some kind of stake in the country.  That way, the US ruler would have something to lose - something under threat - to incentivize continued cooperation with Ukraine.

From what I've read, Ukraine is open to make a deal, but Ukraine is absolutely not open to extortion.  Trump made a huge blunder there and is somewhat trying to walk it back in his own way, but it's hard to overlook that initial screw-up and the Ukrainian people are less open to deals today than they were last month.  And these people don't fold easily.  They didn't fold when there was a giant Russian convoy headed to Kyiv and they won't fold today.

[Unbeliever]

Trump: "Youse got a nice country. Be too bad if somethin' was to happen to it."

[Hydra009]

According to telegram photo - which needs to be substantiated - Italy appears to be transferring an unknown number of Centauro wheeled tank destroyers to Ukraine

It's plausible, given that Italy has some to spare after making a new version of these and decommissioning the old version.

But plausible and true are two different things.  I eagerly await confirmation from either Ukraine or Italy (or the third option, war footage.  Now that would make a helluva introduction!)  Until then, I'd play it safe and assume nothing.

[Hydra009]

Sunday is election day in Germany.  Putin (and Musk) have already declared their preferred party - AfD - and both have considerable means at their disposal.  And they definitely put those resources to work.  I am worried.

Though I was also worried about France's election in 2024 and with good reason.  Though I should stress that there was considerable manoeuvering to keep Le Putin's National Rally party from taking over the National Assembly - and it worked.

And in the UK, Labour won big and its leader, Starmer, is a pretty damn good advocate for Ukraine.  Though iirc, both top candidates pledged to support Ukraine.

So a lot of times, it goes in favor of the normal, pro-democracy, pro-Ukraine candidates...but not always, as I have bitterly found out.  And elections have very serious life-and-death consequences.  All it takes is someone rotten to worm his way into power and lots of things change for lots of people.  I hope that Germany of all places remembers history and just how precious and vital democratic countries are to the maintenance of peace around the world.

[Hydra009]

Germany's center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) won the most seats, making Merz the new Chancellor of Germany.

alt-reich AfD increased its seats significantly and Scholz's party really took a beating.

Merz's stance towards Ukraine is similar to other adult Western leaders (e.g. polar opposite of Orban) He even supports sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine, which is sonething Scholz invariably opposed.

So it looks like Ukraine might benefit from this change in government, though the growth of the AfD - and its foreign oligarch support - gives me pause.  The German people should govern Germany, not Putin.  There is a cancer within and there are plenty of countries who can tell you what happens when it is allowed to grow and spread unchecked.  Nothing good happens, that's for sure.  And contrary to popular belief, the trains do not run on time.