Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Mysterious fire consumes a Russian Su-27 aircraft stationed near Vladivostok (far eastern Russia)

Very fortunate that "concerned citizens" were nearby to record this mysterious, unexplained, and possibly supernatural phenomenon where Russian military hardware seemingly spontaneously combusts.  Careless smoking, perhaps?  I suppose we'll never truly know what really happened.

[Hydra009]

1k a day keeps the ruscists at bay!

[Hydra009]

Due to enormous apc losses, the Russians have started using antique BTR-50s

These things were first made in 1954.  And while some have been used in other countries over the decades, they're not meant as frontline units and definitely not for the sort of high-intensity warfare present in Ukraine.

The armor is between 7mm and 13mm, which I imagine is not particularly good.

[Unbeliever]

Yeah, but what will Ukraine do about the mineshaft gap!?
😱

[Hydra009]

Ukrainian forces use bridgelayer to create supply line to Bakhmut

[Hydra009]

Poland on course to become Europe's largest and most powerful land power

They've put 4% of the GDP towards defense and are going on a hell of a spending spree.

We're talking 1,000 South Korean tanks, 250 brand new Abrams tanks from the US, 18 HIMARS, 1,000 Polish IFVs, etc. They're also building fortifications along their border with Belarus.

[Dark Lightning]

Don't know that I'd want to buy South Korean tanks, in the current political state of affairs. NK and China rattle enough saber that I'll turn loose of my Kia after the warranty runs out (3 years). I'm already searching for another old vehicle that has parts I can buy not made there, and old enough that I know how to repair it. No CANBUS electronics, etc.

[Shiranu]

Biden has already told Ukraine and Russia that a "small incursion" into Ukraine will go unpunished, so my guess is that within the next few years Kyiv will be Russian occupied and within the decade as far as Lviv will belong to the Russians; this would also link Russia with occupied Moldova (Transnistra) and give them borders with most of their former vassals for future moves (or for influencing these more corrupt Comblock states' governments to be pro-Russia, like we've seen in Montenegro).

In hindsight a year later I too bought into the "Russia Number TWOOO!!!" propaganda.

Was still right about the Germans being P.o.S. , but America and several NATO countries really surprised me.

[Shiranu]

Don't know that I'd want to buy South Korean tanks, in the current political state of affairs. NK and China rattle enough saber that I'll turn loose of my Kia after the warranty runs out (3 years). I'm already searching for another old vehicle that has parts I can buy not made there, and old enough that I know how to repair it. No CANBUS electronics, etc.

IIRC, Korean arms manufactures will be developing factories in Poland as well so that might not be too big of issue for them.

Lithuania getting chip factories, Poland becoming the military of Europe, Ukraine just being Ukraine... Eastern Europe is quickly going from "second-world" to world-leading, for better and for worse.

[Hydra009]

Don't know that I'd want to buy South Korean tanks, in the current political state of affairs.

There's an hour-long Perun video about it that I've unfortunately mostly forgotten and in no hurry to rewatch.  Suffice it to say that there are good but non-obvious reasons why Poland would want to buy tanks from South Korea.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Dozens of Russian troops sent to Ukraine without ammo with predictable results

Training turned out to be minimal. A wife says that that the men "played on their phones" for two weeks and had one session at a firing range where they shot ten blank rounds from a sniper rifle.

That makes sense as they expected to just be on guard duty.  When they found out they'd be on the frontlines, they were a lot more interested in training.  Still, they didn't get it and they were dumped in Ukraine without a clue of what they should be doing and without ammo, so it didn't matter.

Eventually, they were picked up in trucks already crowded with cargo, which drove slowly and close together on a dangerous road.  Then HIMARS'o'clock happened.

[Unbeliever]

So, their clock got cleaned?

[Hydra009]

So, their clock got cleaned?

Dead or wounded, yes.