Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Zelenskyy visits UK

Plans have been announced to train Ukrainian pilots to fly Nato-standard fighter jets in the future, a key request from Ukraine.

The UK also announced a fresh wave of sanctions against Russia, this one includes IT companies (Russian IT infrastructure is largely dependent on Western companies) and manufacturers of drones and helicopters (shoulda been done months ago, imo)

Also, Leopard tanks from Canada and Bradleys from the US are both now in Europe.  So this isn't a will-they-won't-they situation.  They're on their way, and there ain't a foxhole deep enough or a cope cage strong enough to hide from them.

[Hydra009]

Ukrainians return 126 kidnapped kids back to Ukraine

After the war is over, I'd tack on $1 million dollars of reparations per kidnapped Ukrainian and allow the confirmed safe return of each Ukrainian to pay off each million.  Russia obviously doesn't have a lot of money to spare, so this would incentivize freeing them from captivity.

[Dark Lightning]

I just hoping that, if Ukraine folds, there isn't any technology capture by the Russians. Meanwhile, I really hope they "win". Fending off the invasion is only a small piece of it. I'm curious how reparations will be enforced.

[Hydra009]

Wagner POS who performed on stage with Ukrainian skull is himself shot in the head

It was far from the frontline, so it might have been a fellow Russian. (edit - close range with a handgun, almost certainly Russian)

He's in the hospital right now, but things aren't looking good.

Update: he's dead.  The guy was part of some Neo-Nazi group.  Good riddance.

[Hydra009]

I'm curious how reparations will be enforced.

I'd tie it to lifting sanctions.  Doesn't matter if Putin dies or if the marauders return to Russia, if they don't pay Ukraine to rebuild, sanctions stay indefinitely.  And returning people is part of the rebuilding process.

Western countries have all the leverage and we should use it to ensure that Ukraine gets all the help it needs to get back on its feet.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

China to EU: Drop calls for Ukraine's 'complete victory'

toeing Xi's line, Fu said the "security concerns of both sides" — Ukraine as well as Russia — should be taken care of.

Splendid.  Both parties should peacefully return to their own borders, then?

Fu also dismissed the comparison between Ukraine and Taiwan, both of which face military threats from a nuclear-armed neighbor.

Apples and oranges still have many similarities...

[Hydra009]

Man, the combat footage from near Vuhledar is insane!

A group of Russian tanks and armored vehicles got the HIMARS treatment between drone strikes and artillery.  The infantry tried to take cover behind the tank, but I guess they kind of forgot that drones can drop bombs from behind as easily as in front.  And bunching up like that tends to not work very well when it comes to explosions.  The last footage shows a repositioning APC unintentionally dragging an infantryman behind it.  Yikes.  Definitely took a morale hit on that one.

I'm describing it in this level of detail to show just how brutal and demoralizing these failed assaults are for the Russians.  They lose valuable equipment and lots of soldiers in truly horrific ways on a daily basis.  And because this engagement was so long-distance and asymmetric (artillery and drones VS tanks and infantry) it's unknown if the Ukrainians had any casualties at all in that engagement.  Definitely the right way to wage a war of attrition.

[Cassia]

Man, the combat footage from near Vuhledar is insane!

A group of Russian tanks and armored vehicles got the HIMARS treatment between drone strikes and artillery.  The infantry tried to take cover behind the tank, but I guess they kind of forgot that drones can drop bombs from behind as easily as in front.  And bunching up like that tends to not work very well when it comes to explosions.  The last footage shows a repositioning APC unintentionally dragging an infantryman behind it.  Yikes.  Definitely took a morale hit on that one.

I'm describing it in this level of detail to show just how brutal and demoralizing these failed assaults are for the Russians.  They lose valuable equipment and lots of soldiers in truly horrific ways on a daily basis.  And because this engagement was so long-distance and asymmetric (artillery and drones VS tanks and infantry) it's unknown if the Ukrainians had any casualties at all in that engagement.  Definitely the right way to wage a war of attrition.

Unfortunately, I don't think battlefield deaths and wounded carry much political power in Russia, especially with all the rural, poor soldiers, the mercenaries and criminals that they are using. Plus, many Russians believe they are truly 'fighting Nazis' to save the motherland.

The survivors will be in bad shape...combat solders learn how shitty humankind really is and once that curtain has been lifted, they can't unlearn that lesson.

[Hydra009]

Yeah, there are reports of Muscovites rejoicing at high casualties of people from rural areas or convicts, claiming that Russia is "cleaning itself" (nazi-esqe ideals of racial purity on full display).  What they seemingly don't realize is who'll be next on the chopping block after they run out of those mobniks.

[Hydra009]

And yes, Putin sacrifices those people on his altar of war precisely because there's little-to-no pushback.  But that won't work indefinitely, after this latest push, he'll likely have to start sending young men from Moscow and St Petersburg.  And then this cheering for war will suddenly stop and we'll hear tear-filled pleas for peace.  Too little, too late.

[Shiranu]

Yeah, there are reports of Muscovites rejoicing at high casualties of people from rural areas or convicts, claiming that Russia is "cleaning itself" (nazi-esqe ideals of racial purity on full display).  What they seemingly don't realize is who'll be next for on the chopping block after they run out of those mobniks.

I've never understood this mindset, and yet it's one that repeats time and time again.

"First they came from the socialists..." or, "Hey, let's hire these ethnic minorities to guard the border of our Empire! What's the worse that could happen... wait, why is Rome on fire?" both feel like they apply here.

[Dark Lightning]

The US also relies on the poor for at least enlistment. I know it worked for me. Rich people don't have to send their sons off to war. The difference here is that by and large the poor are from every bit of the US, as opposed to just some parts.

[Shiranu]

The US also relies on the poor for at least enlistment. I know it worked for me. Rich people don't have to send their sons off to war. The difference here is that by and large the poor are from every bit of the US, as opposed to just some parts.

That did lead to an increase in Hispanics and African Americans being over-represented as Enlisted members around the start of the War on Terror anyways (don't know about before), but I would agree/argue that it was more to do with class specifically (with race playing a factor in that)... whereas in Russia it literally is just, "Get these disgusting Asian yokel trash and send them to die.".

We at least armed our minorities, gave them training and a fighting chance...

[Hydra009]

Right.  Recruitment is typically disproportionately among the poor/rural in most countries.  What Russia has done is a tad different, deliberately targeting and essentially depopulating regions with high minority numbers while leaving Muscovites largely alone.  It's basically genocide with plausible deniability.