Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Kreminna-Svatove highway under fire control of Armed Forces of Ukraine

This means that the Russians cannot use that highway anymore, further complicating Russian logistics.

If that sort of thing sounds familiar, it's because it has happened several times before and usually before Russians cede more ground.

[Hydra009]

Ukrainians are abuzz about the Jan 1st elimination of hundreds of mobiks in one HIMARS volley, which flattened their base and resulted in the survivors going on the internet to beg for donations to replace literally everything, claiming that all they have left is the clothes on their backs. (Sounds kinda scammy, tbh)

Since the Russians were holed up in an abandoned technical college and then visited by Saint HIMARS, the Ukrainians are calling it the "Makiivka Graduation party" 🎉 🪦 🌻

Gotta love their sense of humor!

[Hydra009]

The Russians explain why they cannot take Bakmut: the Ukrainians have strong defense lines and the Russians lack adequate armored vehicles and equipment

This after they lost >3000 tanks in earlier battles.  Coulda come in handy.

[Hydra009]

Pro-Putin crowds in Russia (the only legal crowds) mourn Russian dead in Jan 1st HIMARS strike



"Shoulda been a better species!" - Morty

[Hydra009]

Well, it looks like Russia won a great victory today...against high-tech NATO balloons.

What air defense doing?  Drugs, apparently.

Next they'll shoot down seagulls and claim that they were strategic bombers.

[Hydra009]

Another 700+ kia day.  Ukrainians are very busy lately.

On December 31st, Ukrainian strikes against Russian positions in Kherson region and generated about 500 casualties - wounded/dead

[the_antithesis]

Next they'll shoot down seagulls and claim that they were strategic bombers.

They do poop everywhere.

[Hydra009]

Looks like France will be first to send tanks to Ukraine

Light tanks*, so don't expect much fireworks.  But it's important to break the ice and show that sending tanks to Ukraine isn't an "escalation" but a substantial step forward in bringing the war to an end and saving civilian lives.  Other Allied countries will take notes and are much more likely to pitch in after seeing others pitch in, just like they have with manpads and armored vehicles and artillery and antiair.

* the wiki has them down as tank destroyers and especially useful for reconnaisance in dangerous environments (though it goes without saying that tanks tend to operate in dangerous environments) and fire support.  Useful, but not exactly the main battle tank role that most people tend to expect from the word tank.  Hopefully, another country *coughGermanycough* will pitch in with a bigger brother.

[Shiranu]

Seems good for the type of warfare they are fighting at the moment, though what they are fighting atm and what they will be fighting tomorrow can always change. The weather has not been on Ukraine's side these last few weeks - Saturday is looking "good" though - high of 14 in Bakhmut, hopefully freeze some of the terrain.

[Hydra009]

They have improved mobility over rough terrain like say, mud and snow.  That will certainly come in handy.  It's also somewhat amphibious, so it can ford small bodies of water, several of which exist near the current frontlines, so that might be a nice surprise for the Russians.

And they're quite fast (up to 85 km/h on roads, 40 km/h offroad) which lends itself to the high-mobility offensives Ukraine has been launching.

It can stop and fire very quickly and with high accuracy on that first shot - perfect for shoot-and-scoot or ambush tactics.  It can also take advantage of uneven terrain by perching on a hill or in a depression and tilting its suspension to angle the barrel to make otherwise difficult shots.

But the gun isn't stabilized and it can't accurately fire on the move, so I hope the Ukrainians manning them are a one-shot-one-kill sort of people.

I'm curious about the ammo, which as far as I know, is 105mm caliber, but apparently not the same as the 105mm NATO standard ones.  So I wonder if ammo reserves will be an issue.

[Hydra009]

When I say it can tilt its suspension, this is what I'm talking about:

I gotta say, I've never seen a tank "kneel" before.  Looks quite strange, but hopefully will have good practical purpose.

[Hydra009]

810 kia today.  Almost up to 110k Russian deaths.

[Hydra009]

The US might send Bradleys to Ukraine

I don't like reporting on maybes, but I feel like it's important to know how Ukraine's pleas for tanks are shaking out.  I hope to have something more substantial to report when the US's next round of military aid is announced next week.

[Hydra009]

Ukrainians destroy two russian ammo dumps near Bakhmut

Russia is really struggling for every inch there and running out of just about everything.  So anything that hurts their logistics there has a disproportionate effect on their operations.

[Hydra009]

Hmmm... 🤔