Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

There's also footage of Russia scoring a direct hit with a Lancet drone (suicide drone) on a Ukrainian howitzer (hit while being towed)

It hit the howitzer near the wheel on one side.

It barely did enough damage to require the Ukrainians to change the tire.  The howitzer is almost certainly still operational.

A similar thing happened with the much more heavily-armored Panzerhaubitze 2000.  Did enough damage to require repairs, but didn't damage anything critical or hurt anyone.

Russia's definitely going to have problems exporting its military gear in the near future.

[Hydra009]

The city of Kursk in Russia experiences mysterious power outage

Today's proverb: sooner or later, an arsonist watches his house burn down

[Hydra009]

This Russian soldier has very common complaints: hellish conditions, encounters with Ukrainian bomb-dropping drones, high casualties (~50% KIA), poor command, pervasive lawlessness, urge to frag the commander and return to Russia

But what really caught my attention was apparently, a whole company was poisoned by Romani/gypsies.

That's a huge vulnerability (alcoholism) cleverly exploited.  This is something that has happened at least twice now.  Combined with their penchant for looting and the desperate desire for such goods, this remains an unpatched vulnerability that can be exploited again and again with incredibly powerful results...

[Hydra009]

November has been the deadliest month yet.

It's also important to note:
* In July, HIMARS became active in Ukraine
* In late August, Ukraine launched the Kherson counteroffensive
* In early September, Ukraine launched the Kharkiv counteroffensive
* On September 21, Putin announced a "partial" mobilization
* On October 1, Ukrainian forces liberated Lyman
* On November 11, Ukrainian forces liberated Kherson

The point is that overall, the progress of the war has shown a sharp swing in Ukraine's favor since summer, both in terms of Russian KIA and liberated territory.

[Hydra009]

The Russians have withdrew/repositioned some units in the Zaporizhzhia front, which is very interesting news since it's coupled with Russian forces making preparations to "evacuate" civilians as well, much like they did in Kherson.  And we all know how that turned out.

To quote ISW: 

Russian military movements in Zaporizhia Oblast may suggest that Russian forces cannot defend critical areas amidst increasing Ukrainian strikes on Russian force concentrations and logistics. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 1 that Russian forces withdrew or are currently withdrawing personnel from Polohy, Myhailivka, and Inzhenerne in Zaporizhia Oblast.

The withdrawal from a critical position may suggest that Russian forces cannot defend the entire frontline in Zaporizhia Oblast and are prioritizing where to concentrate forces.  It is just as likely that Russian forces are reorienting their grouping in Zaporizhia Oblast and may move different personnel back into these settlements, however.

This could turn out to not be significant, but it could also be very significant since any weakening of Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia could lead to yet another Ukrainian advance.  And this one would be the most damaging to Putin's ambitions yet, a scenario that Russian military bloggers have been predicting and dreading for months.


(apologies for the outdated map, I'm using it only to illustrate the geographical importance of the Zaporizhzhia region, not to show current deployments)

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that a Ukrainian advance in Zaporizhzhia is *VERY BAD* for Russians, since it could bisect Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine and basically cut off all Russian forces in the Kherson region and Crimea from supply/reinforcement, causing that entire front to collapse.

Meanwhile, the sprawling frontline would shrink to just Donetsk and Luhansk - a much more manageable size for Ukraine.  After that, the end of the war is much closer and its outcome is much more assured.

This scenario may not be in the cards just yet, but with the uptick in Russian losses (500+ KIA per day takes a toll), Western military hardware continuing to make its way into Ukraine and possibly expanding quite a bit in the near future, and Russian mobilizations failing to make a strategic impact, it's simply a matter of time before Russian forces rout somewhere and Ukrainian forces conduct a rapid liberation of another sizable chunk of Ukraine.

[Hydra009]

In a gesture of goodwill, a Russian Mig-31 crashed itself immediately after takeoff in Russia

Both pilots ejected safely.

[Hydra009]

Russia demands illegitimate land-grab scheme be legitimized as a precondition to peace talks

Translation: Russia not interested in peace at the moment

[Hydra009]

EU countries agree to $60 cap on Russian oil

Poland and the Baltic states wanted a $30 cap.  My man.  They know what's up.

[Hydra009]

Russia ready to give up nuclear power plant it unsuccessfully used as nuclear blackmail, but only if Ukraine allows Russian oil and gas to flow through unimpeded

Why not just use Nordstream and skip Ukraine entirely?  /s

[Cassia]

Russia demands illegitimate land-grab scheme be legitimized as a precondition to peace talks

Translation: Russia not interested in peace at the moment

Everyone knows a deal with Putler is worthless.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

They made the same mistake in Severodonetsk, which was captured for political rather than strategic reasons and lost so many troops in the process that subsequent Russian advances were slowed down tremendously or put on hold.

Now, they're fixated on Bakhmut when they really need to be worried about the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.  Win or lose in Bakhmut, they will have wasted so many troops there that the Ukrainians will be able to launch another successful counterattack elsewhere.

And eventually, these hard-fought Russian conquests will be retaken quickly and with minimal casualties because spent armies simply can't continue to fight.

[Hydra009]

Russia says it won't accept the EU's price cap on Russian oil and is "analysing how to respond"

Here's my response:
1) Take it or leave it.
2) I make two Putins every morning before I shower.

Imho, if the Russians try any funny business, the EU should go with Poland's plan.  Cheapskate dictator deserves oil revenues to match.

[Hydra009]

I'm not the kind of person to indulge in gossip, especially malicious gossip, but this particular gossip is seemingly tailor-made to humiliate and undermine a genocidal dictator and shoe-in for this year's Nobel War Prize, so I might as well.

Putin falls on his ass and soils himself

Point and laugh, everyone.  If you feel inclined, feel free to spread memes about it.  Remember, Hitler only had one ball.  :P

[Cassia]

I'm not the kind of person to indulge in gossip, especially malicious gossip, but this particular gossip is seemingly tailor-made to humiliate and undermine a genocidal dictator and shoe-in for this year's Nobel War Prize, so I might as well.

Putin falls on his ass and soils himself

Point and laugh, everyone.  If you feel inclined, feel free to spread memes about it.  Remember, Hitler only had one ball.  :P

The pope has the resources to take him in, protect him, and give him a life of luxury in the Vatican. They are good at that, no?