Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

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I'm pleased to report that power has been restored to much of Ukraine, including Kyiv.  Ukraine currently meets about 70% of its power needs, despite desperate Russian attempts to destroy its power grid.

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Ukrainian forces blow up Rashist artillery unit that shelled a hospital and killed a newborn baby

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Russian armored convoy destroyed in Ukraine, including a T-90M tank

As you can see, it does in fact toss its turret, despite Russian claims to the contrary.

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Russia says it must deploy 5 million troops to achieve victory

Good luck with that!  They're struggling to pay and feed and supply and train (assuming they still do that) the troops they already have!  Which is well short of a million, iirc.

Not to mention hardware.  The last couple million will probably be driving T-35s and T-28s.

Russia can field 5 million troops like China can field 500 million!

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Kremlin plots assassination of Belarus dictator Lukashenko, seizure of his military for use in Ukraine

According to a US-based think tank, so take it with a helping of salt.

Still, Russia is deeply unhappy about Belarus's half-hearted participation in the war.  Initially only used as a base of attack and much-needed hospitals for increasing numbers of wounded Russians, Belarus has had to give up a lot of military hardware to the Russians and reportedly are also creating units composed half by Russians and half by Belarusians.  There can only be one purpose for such a move - to drag Belarusians into Putin's war of aggression and meatgrinder.

As the war drags on and Russia becomes increasingly desperate for manpower, especially non-Russian manpower, extreme methods such as provocations or assassination become more likely.

Only time will tell if Belarusians will allow themselves to be slave to Dictator Putin or if they will resist such moves.

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Russia reporedly removing the nuclear warheads from aging cruise missles, filling them with conventional explosives, then firing them at Ukraine

What desperation!

Also, Ukraine may be inadvertently causing nuclear arms reduction, so kudos for that.

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Wagner wasn't happy about Russia being branded a sponsor of terrorism by the European Parliament, so in a pale imitation of mafia movies, they sent a sledgehammer with fake blood to the European Parliament (they executed a Wagner soldier who had allegedly defected to Ukraine with a sledgehammer)

Estonia responded by sending them a pair of handcuffs (the Wagner leader is wanted by the FBI with a $250,000 bounty on his head)

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For a long time, Russians had an unofficial agreement with Dictator Putin - he runs the country, they won't be political so long as they are left in peace.  How's that working out for Russians?  Her only son, drinking from puddles and running for his life from a tank.  Now seems like a good time to get political.

Edit - the second video is an admission to using white phosphorus.  It is my hope that such audio is one day played at The Hague.

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Speak of the devil, the Belarus foreign affairs minister is dead under suspicious circumstances.

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Not much to report.  Power is almost totally restored.  More shelling along the fronts, but not much movement.

Neither side is very mobile considering that roads are very muddy and cold but not yet frozen.  After it freezes over, then both sides will be able to travel more freely, assuming they have plans to advance.

The daily ISW assessment has some rather interesting tidbits:

Russian defensive positions are optimized to defend against Ukrainian forces attempting to advance along GLOCs rather than driving cross-country as Ukrainian forces have previously done.

That's...a choice.  Definitely a choice.  I dunno, if the other guy used scissors last round, paper probably isn't the best call, but you do you Russia.

Most of the Russian field fortifications in eastern Kherson are nevertheless optimized to defend against drives along the roads and would be very vulnerable to envelopments across the open countryside.

Hmmm...

The tactical vulnerabilities of these defensive positions are mirrored in a similar operational-level vulnerability. Russian forces would be under threat of attacks on their uncovered flanks or even complete encirclement if Ukrainian forces were able to cross the Dnipro River both in the Kherson City-Nova Kakhovka area to the north of most Russian fortifications and to initiate a substantial mechanized campaign from a base on or near the Kinburn Spit to the west of most fortifications.

The Russians also likely sent mobiks (conscripted soldiers, often with poor...well, everything) to man the defensive lines closer to the front while the more experienced troops occupy defensive lines further from the frontlines.  That means that outer defenses crumble rapidly.  Lots of vulnerabilities to exploit.

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More of the Snake Island defenders have been released from Russian captivity in a prisoner swap

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Can't argue with that

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Replacing BTGs are Thieving Tactical Groups (TTGs), Marauding Tactical Groups (MTGs), and Retreating Tactical Groups (RTGs)

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Not linking because of graphic photos, but near Bakhmut, Ukrainian paratroopers overtook a Russian position and the Russians...well, they'll be pushing up sunflowers come spring.  The stench will probably take much longer to go away.

Suffice it to say that Bakhmut is holding, though it is still a very tense situation.