Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Now it's looking likely that the missiles that hit Poland were actually from Ukrainian air defense

Still, the only reason those missiles were in the air was because of Russia's barbaric bombardment of civilians and critical infrastructure all over Ukraine, so Russia bears ultimate responsibility.

Russia praised the US's "measured response".  Disgusting.  Genocidal shitbags got really lucky this time.  They stage provocations and false flags all the time, and if the situation were reversed and a casus belli fell on their laps like this, they would no doubt use it as a pretext to do whatever they want.  They should thank their lucky stars that we're not them.

[Hydra009]

Ukrainians capture warehouse of much-needed munitions

There have been several such findings after Russia's rapid rout from Kherson, but this one has the 120mm mortar shells much sought after by Ukrainian forces.

[Hydra009]

In Russia, an oil depot caught fire

Surprisingly, they don't even try a cover story like a smoking accident or rough seas, but claim it was a Ukrainian drone strike.

[Hydra009]

Russian battalion in Donetsk loses over 50% of its personnel, is disbanded

"In light of the significant losses in the course of hostilities, the morale among units of occupation forces on the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts has significantly deteriorated and the instances of desertion have become more frequent."

[ferdmonger]

"Surviving military personnel have been transferred to other units."

Wonderful.  I'm sure that delaying their deaths for a week or a month will help to improve morale.

[Hydra009]

The best part is that they have terrible morale and I'm sure LOTS of stories to share with their new units, lowering their morale as well.

There's a reason why modern militaries rotate units out.

[Hydra009]

Since the I Want To Live project was launched two months ago, it has received over 3500 requests for surrender

That's roughly 58 surrender requests per day.

[Hydra009]

There's pretty graphic footage of several deceased Russian troops who have been found frozen solid.  They were most likely wounded from a drone and either succumbed to their injuries then froze or some combination of both.

The point is that Russians are generally not well equipped, especially not for cold weather, and are demonstrably prone to leaving their own behind.  (A fact that no doubt crosses conscripts' minds)  In summer, that is bad enough.  In harsh winter conditions, this is 100% fatal.  When faced with this distinct possibility, what is the best course of action from a conscript's pov?

Russian forces are counting on harsh winter to serve as an ally, to stall Ukrainian advances.  But what if the opposite were true?  What if Russian positions, often in foxholes or trenches or what can generously be described as homeless encampments, will be ravaged by the cold worst of all?  In that case, Russian positions may become untenable and they will have withdraw somewhat to seek true shelter in Ukrainian homes or makeshift camps.  Possibly even desert or surrender.  Such a winnowing when units are already weak could present opportunities for Ukrainian forces...

[Hydra009]

Aesop's Fable: The Scorpion and the Frog (or The Dictator and the Underling)



Source

Working with a dictator is hazardous for your health.  Dictators ultimately never reward loyalty or faithful service, therefore they do not deserve it.  And since they keep whole countries in fear through cruelty, neither do they deserve safety.

[Hydra009]

Russian state TV is sometimes really, really funny

1) Old and new(ish) generations divided on nationalizing industries.  One wants a return to the old Soviet economy that worked so well (/sarcasm).  The other wants to embrace decadent western technologies and extravagances.

2) Apparently not much stuff works in Russia, lol.  Plenty of money for supersonic missiles and nukes , but dentures and hearing aids are just too darn expensive!  The gyms are also awful, apparently.  I'm glad I'm American, and don't have such problems (/sarcasm)

3) Woman talking head tried to get in on the action and got talked over.  It basically feels like I'm watching Fox News.

4) Lots of childishness and emotions with very little actual thought involved.  I've seen NOD propaganda broadcasts that were more reasonable and purposeful.

[Hydra009]

The rail line between Kyiv and Kherson back is up and running!  First trains are arriving since February.

But about 50% of Ukraine's electrical equipment has been damaged in some way through these missile barrages.  Ordinary civilians, not soldiers, are Russia's primary target and the ones who are victimized the worst.

But Ukrainians are optimistic and happy to be rid of marauding orcs from much of their territory

[Hydra009]

Dutch court rules that Russian nationals are responsible for shooting down a civilian airliner over Ukrainian airspace, murdering all 298 people on board.  Tried in abstentia, but hopefully more tangible justice will come in time.

I remember when this first happened, there was a lot of finger-pointing and it was an open question about who did it:  Ukrainians, Ukrainian "rebels" (that was a real term that people naively used without irony in those days), or Russians.  The last one was viewed as a somewhat outlandish claim because why would Russians kill civilians and cause an international incident?  It seemingly made no sense.  One would hope that this position has largely been abandoned in the past 9 months.

Most people, confused by all the he-said-she-said accusations and counter-accusations, resolved to be "impartial" and adopt a wait-and-see approach, which imho disappointingly often became a wait-and-forget approach.

Well, now the verdict is in.  It was Russia all along.  The court made it clear that the 2014 invasion was in fact an international conflict involving Russian proxy forces and not some sort of grassroots rebellion against "nazi" Kyiv, as Moscow has claimed (somewhat successfully at the time, much less successfully this year).  People really should have known better.

In other news, the Netherlands has summoned the Russian ambassador over it

[Hydra009]

Iran and Russia deal: Iranian drones to be assembled in Russia

[Hydra009]

Come with me if you want to live:  Russian soldier surrenders to Ukrainian drone

[Hydra009]