Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

ISW assessment November 6th

Putin and key Kremlin officials had increased their references to the use of nuclear weapons from Putin's September 30 annexation speech and throughout October, likely to pressure Ukraine into negotiations and to reduce Western support for Kyiv. Putin made several general references to nuclear weapons in his September 30 speech but avoided directly threatening the use of nuclear weapons.[4] Putin's rhetoric during this speech and throughout October was consistent with his previous nuclear threats and failed to generate the degree of fear within the Ukrainian government that the Kremlin likely intended.

Key Kremlin officials began collectively deescalating their rhetoric regarding the use of nuclear weapons in early November.

[Hydra009]

Russian troops in Belarus live in poor sanitary conditions, contract disease

Currently, there is a large-scale outbreak of various diseases among these soldiers. These are mainly respiratory diseases (bronchitis, sore throat, pneumonia, asthma exacerbation) and infections of the gastrointestinal tract

This is due to the military living in unsuitable conditions, mostly in field tents without proper sanitary conditions.

Also, tensions between the military of the two countries are growing in Belarus. Numerous conflict situations are related to the precedents of Russian military's disparaging attitude towards Belarusians. In particular, using humiliation based on ethnic characteristics.

Hmmm...another vulnerability.  Several, in fact.  An unscrupulous person might even seek to deliberately exacerbate Belarussian-Russian tensions...

[Hydra009]

In naval news, a Russian missile cruiser and destroyer were in the Mediterranean for months trying to form up with the Black Sea fleet (what remains of it) and but were prevented by Turkey.  After waiting and waiting, they finally gave up and are making their way back to their base in eastern Russia, currently spotted in the Indian Ocean

[Hydra009]

Russian priest who urged Russians to have more kids to feed to the meatgrinder (I'm 90% sure he phrased that differently) has died in Ukraine.

C'est dommage.

[Hydra009]

Advanced air defense (NASAMS and Aspide) have arrived in Ukraine, strengthening Ukrainian air defenses

[Hydra009]

Bottom of the barrel: Russia only has roughly 120 Iskander missiles left

That explains the sporadic missile attacks and Russia's desperate attempt to replenish missile stocks with Iranian missiles.

[Hydra009]

In Kherson region, Russian Duma representative's car explodes from a mine

Any injuries/deaths are unknown, but it was a french mine, so presumably everyone in the car was smoking.  :P

[Cassia]

Russian priest who urged Russians to have more kids to feed to the meatgrinder (I'm 90% sure he phrased that differently) has died in Ukraine.

C'est dommage.

His mother was quoted as saying "oh well, I have other and some potato too"

[Hydra009]

In a recent failed Russian assault, a big part of the reason why it failed is because they rushed directly towards fortified positions and notably failed to clear any basements along the way 🌻

[Hydra009]

Hundreds of Russians killed daily as Donetsk is "littered with bodies" - Zelenskyy

It's true.  Today, the kill count is over 700 and based on footage, the Ukrainians have gotten terrifyingly good with drone-dropped munitions as well as Bayraktar strikes and superbly accurate artillery strikes.

Bushes do not conceal as well as Russian soldiers think, and russian foxholes often serve as shallow graves.  Even the rare genius who put a tarp over his hole merely allows the Ukrainian gunner to do a neat trickshot and post it on the internet for the world to see.  A hell of a way for his mom to find out.

The only paths to safety are by remaining in Russia or surrendering.  Even spending a single night in Ukraine can prove deadly.

[ferdmonger]

Can't argue with that logic.

"Me like out-house better.  Stink very good.  And shower inside?  Crazy stuff." (Wow!)

[Mr.Obvious]

"Me like out-house better.  Stink very good.  And shower inside?  Crazy stuff." (Wow!)

Rain inside home? Bad omen.

[Hydra009]

US approves sale of 8 HIMARS to Lithuania

Ammo included, including extended range missiles.  I want to stress that this is to Lithuania, not Ukraine.  But if Lithuania were to donate or sell such systems to Ukraine, the US might publicly disapprove of such a move but does not have a say over what Lithuania does with systems it legally owns.

I would also like to remind everyone that those extended-range missiles have a maximum range of 150km, which could theoretically threaten a wide variety of military targets currently engaged in hostilities, even if it were to remain within Lithuanian borders.

[Hydra009]

Russia orders general retreat from Kherson city

Mr. Putin was not present at the meeting, distancing him from both an embarrassing defeat and a decision to retreat that, Kremlin analysts say, only he could have made.

News of the withdrawal drew anguished and angry responses from some prominent Russian hawks, while others described it as a sensible, tactical retreat to a more defensible front.

A still image taken from a video released by the Russian Defense Ministry purporting to show Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu, right, listening to Gen. Sergei Surovikin, left, at the Joint Russian Forces command center in Ukraine on Wednesday.

Boris Rozhin, a Russian military analyst, called the retreat the Russian Federation's "most serious military defeat since 1991," when it formed. In a Telegram post, he wrote, "If there won't be any upcoming successes with major towns captured and no advancement during the winter offensive, the series of military setbacks would accumulate a much greater internal discontent than sanctions."

The occupation forces had telegraphed a possible pullback for weeks, making statements about the difficult position of troops in Kherson and ordering both the Kremlin-appointed regional government and the remaining civilians to flee eastward. The Ukrainian military was skeptical, reporting just days ago that 40,000 Russian troops were west of the river, digging in to fight for the city.

Moscow's apparent decision to pull back allows an orderly withdrawal rather than the kind of sudden collapse and panicked retreat its forces endured from the northeastern Kharkiv region in September, leaving behind a treasure trove of weapons and other equipment that the Ukrainians could use.

Hmm...not making the mistake of leaving weapons/equipment behind that the Ukrainians can use.  Let's see how that's going...

[Hydra009]

And on the same day as the Kherson retreat announcement, the Russian-installed "official" in Kherson met a terrible, completely unexpected demise

Stremousov, Ukrainian by birth, was a 45-year-old pro-Russian propagandist known for posting voluminous videos — often from his car.

Pro-dictator, makes propaganda videos from his car, spews disinformation ultimately from Putin, now why does that sound so familiar?

Stremousov had a colorful, eccentric past. In a video he posted on YouTube in 2017, he holds his infant daughter by the arm and leg and swings her around as a form of what he calls exercise, which sparked accusations online of child abuse.

Stremousov ran unsuccessfully for mayor of Kherson and the Ukrainian parliament, and became a well-known opponent of vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Hmmm...still not seeing any parallels...

Ukrainian intelligence officials and past associates told NPR that Stremousov had a thirst for wealth and began using his blog to extort money from local businesses in exchange for not publicizing their wrongdoing.

Still not ringing any bells...

"When the war began, all of them started to work as collaborators," said Marus. "They were not pro-Russian. These were just people who wanted money. They had no sense of patriotism or purpose. They are simply traitors to Ukraine."

Hmmm.  Well, I'm glad we don't have anyone like that in the States.