Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

There's a blog from an American volunteer in the Ukrainian foreign legion, and I'll spare you the gory details, but there is intense and chaotic fighting near Lyman.

He's seen a lot of dead/dying Russians, all extremely poorly supplied - no med kits, only a tiny amount of ammo and/or food with them.

Ukrainian/international forces are faring better, but they have to get more ammo frequently and are traumatized by seeing so much death.  He personally says he's "sick of killing people" so I'm guessing that things aren't going well for the Russians.

[Hydra009]

In-depth look at the reasons for Russia's mobilization, the mobilization itself, and its implications.

Russia has suffered a huge manpower shortage for quite a few years (Russia is not the Soviet Union), which is why it has relied heavily on mercenaries in recent conflicts.  And Ukraine inflicted more casualties than this sort of system could cope with, which Russia tried and failed to lessen by exhausting LPR/DPR forces and forming "Frankenunits" of sailors working as tank units.  Russia simply had no other choice but to mobilize.

Also, the fake referendum scheme, which is itself kind of a euphemistic term, like saying that a person was fake "gifting" their jewelry to another person (the fact that the other person is holding a gun is conspicuously absent and it's obviously not correct to call this a "gift" at all, even a phony gift - it's just straight robbery) - where was I?  Oh yes, the land-stealing scheme was also necessary from the russian pov because it legally allowed mobilization of "russian" forces (aka Ukrainians living in temporarily-occupied ukraine) without the explicit declaration of war.

Why Putin is so keen on avoiding declaration of war is beyond me but the answer probably rhymes with mullet.

From the outset, mobilization has not been going smoothly.  Some regions, notably Dagestan, are decidedly NOT happy about it.  A lot of these recruits are quite old, poorly trained and provisioned (a consistent mistake).  Quite a few have already surrendered or been killed fruitlessly.  Add to that the prospect of new recruits simply fragging their commanders or staging insurrections (they know they're being used as cannon fodder, so there's nothing left to lose).  I came across an interesting video of a new recruit who identified as a Tartar and if I understand correctly, part of a Tartar separatist organization, who vowed to do everything in his power to destroy the "special operation" from the inside out.  Not going smoothly is an understatement.

Mark my words, this will all come crashing down on Putin's head before long.

[Cassia]

In-depth look at the reasons for Russia's mobilization, the mobilization itself, and its implications.


Mark my words, this will all come crashing down on Putin's head before long.

Also..gonna be a tampon shortage in Russia.

[Hydra009]

The craziest thing about the mobilization is that the authorities ask conscripts to bring a lot of their own gear and then that stuff sometimes gets stolen by the very same authorities!

On day one, you start off with a strong and justified resentment of the authorities.  I can certainly see why military hardware gets sold to the Ukrainians - for payback reasons alone.

I swear, the smartest Russian soldier in this conflict is that guy who sold his tank to Ukraine.  That guy got $10,000 in his pocket, a comfortable and safe place to live, and a real chance at Ukrainian citizenship.  That beats pretty much every other outcome by a wide margin, especially the likely ones.

[Hydra009]

ISW assessment

Ukrainian forces inflicted another significant operational defeat on Russia and liberated Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, on October 1.

The defeat around Lyman also indicates that Russian President Vladimir Putin – who has reportedly been micromanaging Russian commanders on the ground – is deprioritizing defending Luhansk Oblast in favor of holding occupied territories in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian and Russian sources consistently indicate that Russian forces continued to reinforce Russian positions in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts, despite the recent collapse of the Kharkiv-Izyum front and even as the Russian positions around Lyman collapsed.[6] The decision not to reinforce vulnerable Kupyansk or Lyman front lines was almost certainly Putin's, not that of the military command, and suggests that Putin cares far more about holding the strategic terrain of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts than he does about Luhansk Oblast.

General Hitler over here calling the shots, no wonder Kharkiv-Izyum-Lyman collapsed while he shored up Kherson and Zaporizhia.  That dude is so obsessed with Crimea that he let a passed pawn through Kharkiv region.  He walks right into blunder after blunder, sacrificing troops daily.  Eventually, he won't have an army left.  Then he really will lose Kherson and then Crimea shortly afterwards.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Lyman completely cleared of Russians.  Putin's refusal to withdraw got 1,500 Russians killed

Now Ukrainian forces are shelling Rubizhne, Lysychansk, Kreminna, Sievierodonetsk

Russia captured those territories at great cost during intense fighting.  Arguably, this is what changed the tide of the war prior to HIMARS - Putin sold so many Russian lives cheaply that invader forces were no longer able to really go on the offensive since.

Now they don't have enough troops left to hold on to what they've captured.  To top it all off, Ukrainian capabilities have risen considerably - better artillery, better UAVs, better training, spy satellites, etc.  At the same time, Russian capabilities have dwindled - loss of trained/experienced personnel, continuous loss of ammo depots, degradation of armor/air/artillery, undermanned and exhausted units, etc.

[Hydra009]

Earlier, there was footage of the Russians burying strange containers in the ground and the worry was that they were planning to use chemical weapons.

Turns out they were actually burying sea mines in order to detonate them for a "Ukrainian ammo depot" explosion video.

That's an awful lot of work for something of such limited usefulness.  They must be desperate for good news.

[Unbeliever]

Mark my words, this will all come crashing down on Putin's head before long.

I'm very much afraid this will all come crashing down on every one of our heads before long. If Putin realizes he has no chance of "winning" this war he may very well set off a worldwide nuclear conflagration, and then it will be over for most of the biosphere. But a new biosphere will evolve to replace it (eventually). I can only hope the next intelligent species (if there ever is one) can do better.

[Hydra009]

If Putin realizes he has no chance of "winning" this war he may very well set off a worldwide nuclear conflagration, and then it will be over for most of the biosphere. But a new biosphere will evolve to replace it (eventually). I can only hope the next intelligent species (if there ever is one) can do better.

I've had this conversation with relatives more times then I can count (like The Architect, I've grown exceedingly efficient at it) but basically, if/when Putin senses he can't win, the obvious move is to sue for peace.  Right now, both sides believe they can win (hence the mobilization), so peace isn't really on the table.  Personally, I very much doubt Putin will live long enough to broker such a peace.

Let me ask you this, would Russia launching nukes get Putin anything he wants?  Would he get any part of Ukraine?  Would he stay in power?  Would he stay alive?  Would Russia exist?  Putin literally hides in a bunker much of the time from a war that is largely not even in his own country.  Do you really think that this is a courageous, self-sacrificial person?    Do you think everyone involved the process of dropping the bomb is suicidal? 

They may be despotic and cruel, but at the end of the day, these are rational actors, people with families, same as you and me.  In fact, Putin's policy of carving out parts of neighboring countries (while at the same time not risking Muscovites on the battlefield) is precisely fueled by a rational decision-making process - it works (usually).  Russia takes land and resources, Russia endures whatever sanctions come its way, rinse and repeat.  It's an inherently piecemeal, risk-averse process.  That should tell you something.

Brinksmanship makes frightening headlines and the media loves frightening headlines.  And the prospect of a tactical (not strategic) nuclear weapons on Ukraine has been credibly raised.  But would its use be consistent with Russian war aims?  ISW weighs in:

"Kadyrov's call for using tactical nuclear weapons is likely inconsistent with his demands to continue the "special military operation" to bring more Ukrainian territory under Russian control. The Russian military in its current state is almost certainly unable to operate on a nuclear battlefield even though it has the necessary equipment and has historically trained its units to do so. The chaotic agglomeration of exhausted contract soldiers, hastily mobilized reservists, conscripts, and mercenaries that currently comprise the Russian ground forces could not function in a nuclear environment.  Any areas affected by Russian tactical nuclear weapons would thus be impassable for the Russians, likely precluding Russian advances. This consideration is another factor that reduces the likelihood of Russian tactical nuclear weapons use."

Basically, nukes of any kind would make it impossible for Russian forces to function and Russia faces credible consequences of NATO annihilation of remaining Russian naval forces bare minimum.  Not much incentive.

What nuke talk does do is stoke fear and panic in the enemy, reliably exacerbated by fearmongering media, while at the same time stoking patriotic and nationalistic sentiment among Putin's domestic audience.  That's why Putin is talking about nukes, not firing them.

The real thing to be worried about is what happens to Russia's nukes when Russia collapses.

[Dark Lightning]

There was a transfer of a whole bunch of the then-USSR's nuclear materials to the US after the collapse of the Berlin Wall, simply to keep it out of nefarious people's hands. I'd like to think that sane heads would prevail again, and result in a safe transfer of the rest of Russia's arsenal to neutral ground. I'm in no way sure that the US should have them, though. But whom else should the world trust?

[SGOS]

I worry about WWIII also, but I don't think it's going to happen this time around.  When it does happen it will be a surprise to me, even if I think it's inevitable .

[Hydra009]

Ukraine has liberated yet more territory, recapturing more territory around Lyman as well as an unexpected push on the eastern part of Kherson region, capturing in just a few hours an area roughly equivalent in size to Guam.

[Hydra009]

1.5 million Russian winter uniforms mysteriously vanish

It's gonna be a brutal winter in Ukraine without those.

[Hydra009]

Apparently, Russian forces begged for air support on Telegram (the equivalent of asking people on Facebook how to give CPR)

And surprise surprise, the russian air force just let them twist in the wind:



I get the feeling that they're worried about something other than the weather...