Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[the_antithesis]

Okay, evidentially I haven't been paying attention. What's with Zorro the Gay Blade?

[Hydra009]

Okay, evidentially I haven't been paying attention. What's with Zorro the Gay Blade?

The Z markings?  They mostly seem to allow Russian units to broadly identify where they're from and to identify themselves as Russian to friendly forces (incidentally, also enemy forces) so friendly forces don't accidentally fire on them (spoiler: friendly forces do fire on them surprisingly often)

[Hydra009]

Latest Kharkiv counterattack map:



As you can see, two tendrils of Ukrainian forces are coming towards Lyman, one very close to the north and one farther away to the north.  Before long, Russian forces will be encircled.  At that point, they can either take the road straight east out of Lyman or stand their ground.  Kind of a lose-lose-worse situation.  Lyman is an important logistical hub for that region and its loss will cause Russian forces in that area to endure further logistical problems.

[Hydra009]

Russia lost an entire company today in heavy fighting near Bakmut

Apparently, that was the last company from the 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division.  So it's looking like that division has gone extinct.  A Russian division is roughly 8,000 - 9,000 troops.

[Hydra009]

Some of the newly mobilized forces are already cargo 200 (KIA)

A train carrying Russian troops was hit by Ukrainian artillery in the Luhansk region.  No doubt their scant training (if any) was insufficient to prepare them for the Ukraine experience.

[Hydra009]

Russian colonel buried in Russia, reportedly killed by a HIMARS strike in Izyum just prior to the counteroffensive that saw it liberated

[PopeyesPappy]

Latest Kharkiv counterattack map:

As you can see, two tendrils of Ukrainian forces are coming towards Lyman

I hate the icons on that map. It looks like the Ukrainians are going the wrong way.

[Hydra009]

Russia's border with Georgia has a huge backlog of Russians fleeing from the consequences of their own war of aggression.

In response, Russia has deployed a mobile conscription office on its border with Georgia

[Hydra009]

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan is struggling to accomodate the somehow simultaneously war-weary and war-mongering refugees.

It should be noted that Kazakhstan got threatened by Russians for not being pro-war enough and now is working hard to house and provide for Russians.

And Finland closed its border and recommends building a fence along part of its border.

[Hydra009]

Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines experienced a sudden drop in pressure recently and now officials believe it was likely a targetted attack

[the_antithesis]

The Z markings?  They mostly seem to allow Russian units to broadly identify where they're from and to identify themselves as Russian to friendly forces (incidentally, also enemy forces) so friendly forces don't accidentally fire on them (spoiler: friendly forces do fire on them surprisingly often)

So the Gay Blade works.

[Unbeliever]

And Finland closed its border and recommends building a fence along part of its border.

Maybe they could get some advice from Trump on how to build a wall.

[Shiranu]

Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines experienced a sudden drop in pressure recently and now officials believe it was likely a targetted attack

Out of all the countries in Europe, they decided to pick on Denmark, Sweden, Poland and Norway with this chemical attack...

Russia really likes to try punching up...

[Hydra009]

Maybe they could get some advice from Trump on how to build a wall.

I worry that Ukrainian refugees in Europe could be harassed/harmed by Russians, either already living there or moving there to evade mobilization.  Theoretically, they both should have a lot in common - slavic ethnicity, soviet history, this war has upended both their lives, etc.  But in practice, Russians have been fed a lot of disinfo about Ukrainians and that kind of stuff has lingering effects.

For now, I'm glad that they're mostly going to different countries, though I hear some Azov higher-ups have agreed to stay in Turkey until the end of the war as a condition of release from Russian captivity and Turkey is a popular destination for Russian refugees.  So the odds of them bumping into each other are not zero.

This whole situation is a bit odd.  Could you imagine in WWII a country taking in Jewish refugees and then taking in German possibly-nazis not long after?  Like in some sort of Paperclip Operation?  That'd be wild!

[Hydra009]