Welcome to our site!

Main Menu

Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

Previous topic - Next topic


Some prisoners recruited by Wagner to fight in Ukraine already captured

Poor training and equipment FTL.  Russia cuts so many corners that their flag should be a circle.


Tank driver.  Only a few weeks of training.  Old, low-quality equipment.  Never seen infantry (combined arms isn't a thing)


Russia moves air defense from St Petersburg to Ukraine

They're creating a gap on their own air defense to shore up Ukraine.  Definitely a sign that they're running low.

Also, it really puts the lie to their talking point that they're super worried about "NATO aggression".  If they were truly worried, they'd pull out of Ukraine and reinforce their border.


Institute for the Study of War assessment

QuoteRussian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly relying on irregular volunteer and proxy forces rather than conventional units and formations of the Russian Federation Armed Forces. ISW has previously reported that Putin has been bypassing the Russian higher military command and Ministry of Defense leadership throughout the summer and especially following the defeat around Kharkiv Oblast.[1] Putin's souring relationship with the military command and the Russian (MoD) may explain in part the Kremlin's increasing focus on recruiting ill-prepared volunteers into ad-hoc irregular units rather than attempting to draw them into reserve or replacement pools for regular Russian combat units.

QuoteThe formation of such ad-hoc units will lead to further tensions, inequality, and an overall lack of cohesiveness between forces. Ukrainian and Russian sources have reported instances of Russian Armed Forces refusing to pay veteran benefits, one-time enlistment bonuses, or provide medical treatment to BARS (Russian Combat Army Reserve) servicemen.
Jeez.  No medical treatment.  No wonder morale is so catastrophically bad.

QuoteThe formation of irregular, hastily-trained units adds little effective combat power to Russian forces fighting in Ukraine. Forbes noted that the 3rd Army Corps rushed in to defend Russian positions around Kharkiv Oblast during the counteroffensive but failed to make any difference and "melted away."[10] The reported arrival of increasing numbers of irregular Russian forces on the battlefield has had little to no impact on Russian operations.
So basically, Putin is delusionally gambling on value-brand soldiers to save his bacon in Ukraine and doesn't yet realize that this is yet another blunder.

QuoteRussian forces are likely attempting to conduct a more deliberate and controlled withdrawal in western Kherson Oblast to avoid the chaotic flight that characterized the collapse of Russian defensive positions in Kharkiv Oblast earlier this month.
Music to my ears.  Their positions might not collapse as catastrophically as they did in Kharkiv, but they're still ceding ground that Ukraine will liberate and continue to push them out.





Not a catastrophic kill, but that's definitely going to void the warranty.


The Wagner recruiting website was recently hacked.  Instead of the normal page, there are graphic pictures of dead Wagner soldiers (don't worry, the news link is sanitary and doesn't even mention that part) and the ominous message, "Ukrainian IT Army here. We now have your website personal data. Welcome to Ukraine. We're waiting for you 😈"

Suffice it to say that recruitment might slow down a bit.