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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Hydra009

Dead men walking: Putin recruits complete newbies to reinforce invasion

18 to 50 without prior military experience, at least a middle school graduation (they'll take high school dropouts)

FNG Army, more like.  Green af and dumb af, from the looks of it.  I don't envy their chances.

The part that has me worried is that there are 15,000 of them.  Even though Ukraine grinds through Russian forces fairly quickly, chewing through thousands of reinforcements takes a lot of time and prolongs this war.

Putin's been lying and saying that HIMARS is prolonging the war.  But actually, these constant attempts to send more bodies to the front and eke out a win despite the special operation going spectacularly awry is what is actually prolonging the war.

Cassia

Quote from: Hydra009 on August 06, 2022, 10:29:36 AMDead men walking: Putin recruits complete newbies to reinforce invasion

18 to 50 without prior military experience, at least a middle school graduation (they'll take high school dropouts)

FNG Army, more like.  Green af and dumb af, from the looks of it.  I don't envy their chances.

The part that has me worried is that there are 15,000 of them.  Even though Ukraine grinds through Russian forces fairly quickly, chewing through thousands of reinforcements takes a lot of time and prolongs this war.

Putin's been lying and saying that HIMARS is prolonging the war.  But actually, these constant attempts to send more bodies to the front and eke out a win despite the special operation going spectacularly awry is what is actually prolonging the war.
Historically Russia has used the strategy of feeding their peasant-soldiers into the grinder to wage battles of attrition. Soviet casualties invading Finland in 1939 were over 300k vs 70k for the Finns. They are doing it again.

Hydra009

#1037
Russia released a bizarre commercial trying to attract people to Russia (the ones they haven't kidnapped), a country with a net negative population growth for entirely different reasons than say, Japan.


Among the "pros":

* Cheap oil/gas (living in a petrostate, I should hope so)

* Cheap goods (by western standards, but it's not like you can buy anything worthwhile - you can't buy a car with antilock brakes or a halfway decent computer or a plane ticket to practically anywhere in Europe)

* Fertile soil (true only in very select portions of the country, this is misleading bordering on lying for a country notorious for vast swathes of barren land)

* Beautiful women (here's where they lost me.  Even assuming that's true, quite a few of them are pro-nazi and into torture now, brainwashed by state media.  There's no hourglass figure in the world that can make up for that.

Also, couldn't help notice that nothing was said about the men...)

* Cuisine (lol no)

* Architechture, writers, history (also true of every single country on Earth)

* Traditional Values, No "Cancel Culture" (What a weird way to say hopelessly backwards and bizarrely proud of it.  And they absolutely do have a cancel culture.  They just take your life, not your twitter account)

* Vodka (probably the only legit selling point, but other countries make vodka too, so your mileage may vary)

* Apply before winter! (Why?  Are the winters bad or something?)

Cons:

Shaky economy, pervasive poverty, crippling sanctions, brain drain, madman dictator, kleptocracy, state sanctioned repression of minority groups, no freedom, no representation, no hope for the future, horrible beaches

Hydra009


Hydra009

For anyone having trouble figuring out which side is evil: one side regularly and enthusiastically engages in war crimes against POWs, the other gives POWs some warm tea, a phone to talk to their family, and a cot.


Hydra009

Ukrainian Armed Forces destroy Russian Pantsir anti-air missile system and 4 S-300 anti-air missile systems in southern Ukraine

On Aug 6th, they also destroyed a Russian 2A18 122 mm howitzer, a reconnaissance drone, several armoured and other vehicles, and an ammunition dump.

Invaders in Southern Ukraine are feeling the sting.  Every day, they shed more hardware and their position gets weaker.

Hydra009

#1042
Russia has already burned through half of its resources in this war, seriously degrading their ability to wage further war


the_antithesis

So, they're ripe for attack. Let's get 'em.

Hydra009

Rumor has it that Ukraine *might* have HARM missiles.

Take this with not just a pinch of salt, but all the salt in the Black Sea.  Until there's official confirmation, don't get your hopes up.  That said...that'd be super cool.

Blackleaf

Quote from: Hydra009 on August 07, 2022, 08:53:04 AMRussia has already burned through half of its resources in this war, seriously degrading their ability to wage further war



Seriously, what is Putin's endgame here? How much does he have to lose until he says, "You know what? This isn't worth it."
"Oh, wearisome condition of humanity,
Born under one law, to another bound;
Vainly begot, and yet forbidden vanity,
Created sick, commanded to be sound."
--Fulke Greville

Dark Lightning

Who can evaluate the judgment of a madman? He's mad, and we aren't. This cuts completely through humanity- we just don't understand crazy. We see the results, though.

the_antithesis

Quote from: Blackleaf on August 07, 2022, 09:48:46 PMSeriously, what is Putin's endgame here? How much does he have to lose until he says, "You know what? This isn't worth it."

He needs to catch a showing of "My American Cousin"

Hydra009

#1048
Quote from: Blackleaf on August 07, 2022, 09:48:46 PMSeriously, what is Putin's endgame here? How much does he have to lose until he says, "You know what? This isn't worth it."
Imagine you're a ruthless dictator for a second.   You climbed your way to the top over a mountain of corpses.  Everyone is scared shitless of you.  Your state media tells the masses that the country and its fearless leader are strong.  Every advisor you talk to - people who grew up on said media - tells you that you're amazing, your army is top notch, and the enemy is weak.

All you have to do is send more troops, send in some Wunderwaffe (like terminator tanks or hypersonic missiles), and intensify forward firepower/artillery.  The enemy's lines will break any second now, and then it's just a swift mop-up operation and then Kyiv surrenders.

Besides, so many soldiers have died already, we can't let their sacrifice be in vain.  And more importantly, if you botch this, there's no apology tour, you're a deadman.  Autocrats die when the public realizes that they're incompetent, so they must never know.  That's why communications and media are so tightly controlled in autocracies, it's why Putin went to great lengths to pretend to be a shirtless manly man, it's why dead soldiers are cremated at occupied cities and not returned home for burial, and it's why no one from Moscow is getting drafted.

Would you tell the world that you've lost and put your life on the line?

Hydra009

Ukrainian HIMARS  eliminates more than 100 Russian soldiers and their equipment in Melitopol

It just so happens that the Russians relocated much of their air defense from Melitopol to Kherson last week and therefore was unusually vulnerable.  What a strange coincidence.

It would be a shame if they lost even more air defense, giving the Ukrainian air force and drones free reign to wipe the floor with them.