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Wuhan Corona virus

Started by Sal1981, January 28, 2020, 09:04:46 PM

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Sal1981

3Blue1Brown made another video on disease spread, now a little more in depth than the last, with the measures now being recommended around the world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs

Baruch

Monte-Carlo / Random Walk algorithms are a good way to simulate finance / politics too ;-))
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Sal1981

Quote from: Baruch on March 28, 2020, 10:57:11 PM
Monte-Carlo / Random Walk algorithms are a good way to simulate finance / politics too ;-))
It's a toy model, not a simulation.

Baruch

Quote from: Sal1981 on March 28, 2020, 11:10:48 PM
It's a toy model, not a simulation.

Your toy, my national policy ;-)
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Baruch

"UK Police Force Creates Tool That Lets People Snitch On Others For Not "Social Distancing"" ... now Munch can join the British Stasi ;-)

"German State Finance Minister Found Dead" ... suicide.  Being elite has its hazards.
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Baruch

"White House Extends Coronavirus Guidelines Until April 30" ... will keep the lockdown until the Army of the Unemployed forms ...

"French Official Says Quarantine Should Not Be Enforced In Migrant Areas To Avoid Riots" ... not enough wine or cheese in the Banluis.
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Sal1981

Now, 2 months later it's 718.685 cases worldwide with starting signs that it's slowing down, a tad, but still not at the inflection point.

149.076 recovered.

33.881 deaths.

Closed cases are 182.957‬, while there are active cases of 535.728‬.

If you take the closed cases only the mortality rate is a lot higher than the projected 2-3%, it's more like 18,5%, because we don't know yet the turnout for the active cases will be; recovery or death.

Shiranu

Four Asian-Americans were stabbed here in Texas because, and I quote the stabber, "He thought they were Chinese and spreading the Coronavirus."

I guess that makes stabbing a 2 year old, a 6 year old and their parents okay then?

https://news.yahoo.com/federal-authorities-warn-increase-asian-004749098.html?soc_src=community&soc_trk=fb
"A little science distances you from God, but a lot of science brings you nearer to Him." - Louis Pasteur

Hydra009

I really wish I had a private, uninhabited island for both the people who are homicidally concerned about this pandemic (and racist to boot) and the people who aren't at all concerned and won't modify their behavior at all.  Let them duke it out and leave the sane people alone.

Baruch

#804
Quote from: Sal1981 on March 29, 2020, 06:54:59 PM
Now, 2 months later it's 718.685 cases worldwide with starting signs that it's slowing down, a tad, but still not at the inflection point.

149.076 recovered.

33.881 deaths.

Closed cases are 182.957‬, while there are active cases of 535.728‬.

If you take the closed cases only the mortality rate is a lot higher than the projected 2-3%, it's more like 18,5%, because we don't know yet the turnout for the active cases will be; recovery or death.

Are the active cases people in hospital?  The fatality rate against all infected, vs fatality rate against people in hospital, are different.  If hospitals fail apart as claimed in Italy and Spain, then the hospital fatality rate does up.
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Munch

Quote from: Hydra009 on March 29, 2020, 08:22:05 PM
I really wish I had a private, uninhabited island for both the people who are homicidally concerned about this pandemic (and racist to boot) and the people who aren't at all concerned and won't modify their behavior at all.  Let them duke it out and leave the sane people alone.

times like this showcase peoples true nature. I'm happy to find those closet to me are sane and rational, my mum, brother, his famiy, my boyfriends, they have all dedicated to staying indoors and protecting one another, only stepping out for supplies and adapting to life indoors, which in my brothers case is hard given he has 2 young kids.

Sadly that doesn't extend to everyone I know. two family friends close to my mum, who are old enough to be in the risk group, one being married to a man who suffered eunomia last year, the other one being asthmatic herself, are going out for walks around their village or local town to meet friends.. for what fuck if i know.
My aunt whos partner is a contract builder is stuck at home and slowly going crazy, I'm expecting their both go wander about soon.

my friend in sweden seems to be following the rules so far and staying indoors with his roommate, but he's said about going outside for food too.

I've been inside for 2 and a half weeks so far and I feel okay, I'm a natural introvert anyway and staying indoors, reading, writing, watching movies, baking and playing games is more my idea of entertainment. I'm just more concerned about the people I care about the most.
'Political correctness is fascism pretending to be manners' - George Carlin

Baruch

#806
"NATIONAL GUARD GOES TO HOMES HUNTING DOWN "REFUGEES" FROM NYC, CUOMO CALLS IT "DECLARATION OF WAR"" ...  Governor Cuomo is saying, US has declared war on New York!  Trump caught between a rock and a hard place ... says that he recommends New Yorkers stay in New York, but won't call for a national lockdown (which would include prohibiting interstate travel).  Rhode Island lady governor has sent in Rhode Island National Guard ... to check on any New York auto plates at any location in Rhode Island, demanding they quarantine for 14 days.  Governor Cuomo wants to sue Rhode Island.

Meanwhile Trump claims that Cuomo is hiding a reserve supply of medical equipment, while demanding additional medical equipment from the rest of the US.  NYC itself is getting excellent support from Washington DC.

In Australia, they have shut down travel between Australian states, based on orders from individual governors, complicating the job of the Australian PM.
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

Baruch

Quote from: Munch on March 29, 2020, 09:48:18 PM
times like this showcase peoples true nature. I'm happy to find those closet to me are sane and rational, my mum, brother, his famiy, my boyfriends, they have all dedicated to staying indoors and protecting one another, only stepping out for supplies and adapting to life indoors, which in my brothers case is hard given he has 2 young kids.

Sadly that doesn't extend to everyone I know. two family friends close to my mum, who are old enough to be in the risk group, one being married to a man who suffered eunomia last year, the other one being asthmatic herself, are going out for walks around their village or local town to meet friends.. for what fuck if i know.
My aunt whos partner is a contract builder is stuck at home and slowly going crazy, I'm expecting their both go wander about soon.

my friend in sweden seems to be following the rules so far and staying indoors with his roommate, but he's said about going outside for food too.

I've been inside for 2 and a half weeks so far and I feel okay, I'm a natural introvert anyway and staying indoors, reading, writing, watching movies, baking and playing games is more my idea of entertainment. I'm just more concerned about the people I care about the most.

I go out once a day for drive thru fast food.  Every other day I go out for limited grocery shopping (scavenger hunt).  Haven't been with family (two different trailer  parks) for 8 days.  I can easily continue this for two more weeks.  So I am limiting public exposure, but above zero.  This level is still legal here.
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.

trdsf

Ohio's been giving county by county results since the first case in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland).  We're at around 1650 known cases with "only" 29 deaths so far.  As of 2pm today, there have been no new cases since yesterday.  I suppose that won't hold, but that's an optimistic sign, at least.

For the most part, DeWine has done well, with only two major missteps along the way: canceling the primary at the last possible moment without either declaring a new date or vote-by-mail, and closing women's health clinics as "optional" medical care.
"My faith in the Constitution is whole, it is complete, it is total, and I am not going to sit here and be an idle spectator to the diminution, the subversion, the destruction of the Constitution." -- Barbara Jordan

Baruch

#809
"SOCIAL ORDER IS BREAKING DOWN IN ITALY, POLICE BEING DEPLOYED TO GROCERY STORES AS LOOTING ERUPTS" ... getting bad in Italy ;-(

If people can't get food, they will riot.  Supposedly food is going short in South Italy.
Ha’át’íísh baa naniná?
Azee’ Å,a’ish nanídį́į́h?
Táadoo ánít’iní.
What are you doing?
Are you taking any medications?
Don't do that.