How long will capitalism last?

[The Skeletal Atheist]

As I've come to understand, capitalism requires a few key things to work properly. These things are as follows:

1. Scarcity of resources, but not too much scarcity. The idea being that if a resource is too scarce, it may very well be a luxury resource but its share in the larger market will be limited by its scarcity. On the other hand if a resource is too abundant, like air, one can't possibly trade for it at any price.

2: Growth. A capitalist system requires some sort of growth. The focus on profits assumes growth in a market, without that there are no profits to free the system. I give you x for y, and from the difference I make z. Without x or y, there is no z.

3: Semiscarcity of labor. For capitalism to work for almost everyone except for the most elite, there must be a bit, but not too much, of a scarcity. Barring artificial measures like a minimum wage, a scarcity of labor is what keeps wages high enough that the average worker can live off of it. When there is an abundance of labor the average worker is forced into a race to the bottom when it comes to wages.

I feel like if any of these three pillars fall, then the viability of capitalism is done. Consequently, with the rise of technology I feel like all three pillars are weakened, if not outright broken and merely propped up by the state. In one way or another technology has sawed away at very least scarcity and labor. It's an undeniable fact that technology is taking jobs. How long is it until only about 20% of the population is doing 100% of the actual labor? What do we do to the 80% who aren't actually doing labor? How should a postjob, postcapitalism society work?

[GSOgymrat]

I have no idea what will happen with capitalism. Prognosticators say self-driving vehicles will do away with taxis, Ubers and trucking in thirty years. I have read when AI becomes "live", which experts describe as when, not if, it will eliminate a lot of jobs in finance, law, medicine, research, education, etc. Some have suggested a basic wage provided by the government or some other institution but it seems very theoretical. There are also concerns about the psychological value of work. I would like to learn more about what the future might hold in terms of economics if anyone has recommended articles.

[Baruch]

With 20% working, 80% will have Hunger Games ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfmrPu43DF8

This particularly works with the high unemployment of young adults in the EU ...

[Baruch]

Capitalism for most of us is individual freedom in the context of consumerism and hire/fire at will ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLJBzhcSWTk

[Baruch]

Loss of control of territory, particularly loss of control of colonies like GB, the EU, Japan etc ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiKjd6QgZQo

Loss of value of British Pound ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjOaGkoFjX4

Overstretch of the US ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Mg0oZHwW6c

[Baruch]

History of US dollar ... and decline in the modern era ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CU4fBySL29c

Remember, if you worship the State, it will eat you alive

[AllPurposeAtheist]

OMG OMG OMG (exclamation point) We're all gonna die!  Say your prayers pardners! The good news is that we all indeed get to die eventually and for myself and many others here we're closer to dying of old age or some odd diseases than we are from the collapse of capitalism. It really does feel like we're being rushed head on into a scenario similar to that of the grapes of wrath (the movie and book) where millions will flee their homes to seek out jobs that no longer exist.
Just a day or so ago El Trumpo had a nice little chat with the new president of Taiwan which really pisses off mainland China which may or may not set off an invasion of the island nation/province of China and of course the trumpists will play it all off as some stance for 'freedom' much the same as the old tripe we were feed about Iraq followed by an unprecedented trade war so electronics will likely quadtriple in price and we'll be told it's to bring back all those manufacturing jobs from China.  But someone isn't thinking this through very well. If indeed all the jobs come here they won't pay enough to put food on the table because to be able to manufacturer all the products we currently take for granted as cheap will have to cost much more simply because either the wages currently being paid in China will have to go WAY up here or people will have to be so utterly desperate for any type of work they'll work for quite literally pennies on the dollar, but won't be able to afford any of the products.
How many of you would be willing or even able to buy a $200 cell phone that will suddenly cost $2000? Those jobs, if they ever come back (they wont) would be the greatest thing to happen for the labor movement since the Triangle garment factory fire of 1911 because folks aren't going to be willing to work for starvation wages under the trumpist economic miracle..

[Aletheia]

I feel like if any of these three pillars fall, then the viability of capitalism is done. Consequently, with the rise of technology I feel like all three pillars are weakened, if not outright broken and merely propped up by the state. In one way or another technology has sawed away at very least scarcity and labor. It's an undeniable fact that technology is taking jobs. How long is it until only about 20% of the population is doing 100% of the actual labor? What do we do to the 80% who aren't actually doing labor? How should a postjob, postcapitalism society work?

I think it was Isaac Asimov who addressed this issue in his books where the bulk of the labor force was provided by robots. Humanity was free to pursue other things.

I suspect this could, in a more positive light, be akin to a second Renaissance.

[Baruch]

I think it was Isaac Asimov who addressed this issue in his books where the bulk of the labor force was provided by robots. Humanity was free to pursue other things.

I suspect this could, in a more positive light, be akin to a second Renaissance.

But his robots had AI ... which is a fantasy.  Ultimately his robots evolved past humans, and simply left the galaxy for elsewhere, to let the carbon units get on with their lives, because they were incompatible.  In the distant future you had the Foundation Trilogy ... which is a bit like Star Wars ... Trantor, the galactic capital, Coruscant, the capital in Star Wars.  Humans forget their home planet.  In the fourth book of the trilogy ;-) ... humans get back to Sol and Terra, and find out what happened millennia before, including about the superior robots.

I wish it was true that AI was possible, but it is a grant seeking fraud, including fully autonomous cars and trucks.  Semi-autonomous cars and trucks can only work if they are a sophisticated tram network, with outside guidance, not with AI.  A computer could control that right now.  But a world of mostly trams won't be compatible with private cars and trucks, they will have to be banned (for global warming as an excuse).

What was the original Renaissance?  Local Italian mafiosi city states (Medici, Sforza), free of the Pope and the German Emperor.  The contest between the Pope and the German Emperor, made city states temporarily possible, the first time since ancient Greece.  But the Renaissance ended when N Italy was conquered by France & Austria and the Papacy was able to reassert control in the Papal States during the counter-revolution.

There is no economy outside of politics.  Our politics limits what we can do as a society .. not our technology.  Techno-utopianism ... is utopian, it will never happen.  The present isn't a techno-utopia is it?  The idea of Eloi sitting around while mechanical Morlochs slave away ... would be unstable if the robots were sentient.  The original "robot" was the Czech word for "worker" ... in the play RUR in the 1920s.  In that play, a metaphor for current radical politics, the robots rise up and kill the humans.  Won't happen though, the human workers almost never rise up ... too many quislings.

There is no free lunch, and no escape from mortality, even mortality of civilizations ... there is always a price to pay, such as plutonium breeder reactors.

[reasonist]

OMG OMG OMG (exclamation point) We're all gonna die!  Say your prayers pardners! The good news is that we all indeed get to die eventually and for myself and many others here we're closer to dying of old age or some odd diseases than we are from the collapse of capitalism. It really does feel like we're being rushed head on into a scenario similar to that of the grapes of wrath (the movie and book) where millions will flee their homes to seek out jobs that no longer exist.
Just a day or so ago El Trumpo had a nice little chat with the new president of Taiwan which really pisses off mainland China which may or may not set off an invasion of the island nation/province of China and of course the trumpists will play it all off as some stance for 'freedom' much the same as the old tripe we were feed about Iraq followed by an unprecedented trade war so electronics will likely quadtriple in price and we'll be told it's to bring back all those manufacturing jobs from China.  But someone isn't thinking this through very well. If indeed all the jobs come here they won't pay enough to put food on the table because to be able to manufacturer all the products we currently take for granted as cheap will have to cost much more simply because either the wages currently being paid in China will have to go WAY up here or people will have to be so utterly desperate for any type of work they'll work for quite literally pennies on the dollar, but won't be able to afford any of the products.
How many of you would be willing or even able to buy a $200 cell phone that will suddenly cost $2000? Those jobs, if they ever come back (they wont) would be the greatest thing to happen for the labor movement since the Triangle garment factory fire of 1911 because folks aren't going to be willing to work for starvation wages under the trumpist economic miracle..

We brought it on ourselves. Shopping at WalMart means supporting the Chinese economy. We want cheap goods but we want to make them here and we want high wages. Obviously that cannot work. Yeah, Mr. President-elect wants to play hardball with China but has half of his (and Ivanka's) business items made in China and Singapore.
I order items from China all the time because anything you choose, it's a fraction of the price of a comparable locally made item. So I am as guilty as the next guy but in order to be competitive, I have no choice. Trump just 'saved' a 1,000 jobs at Carrier, perfect window dressing. The company got a 7 million dollar tax incentive from the State per year plus federal tax breaks, that is costing the tax payer U$ 7,000 per employee every year, minimum. Now it's only a matter of time until other companies threaten to move operations abroad and receive similar tax concessions. Trump opened a can of worms that won't be easy to close again.
Capitalism is not going to die because it's main ingredient is greed. And that's not going away anytime soon. Shareholder happiness above all...

[Baruch]

What Trump did isn't new .. local and State governments have been giving sweetheart deals to businesses for a generation now.  The job I worked in 20 years ago, was a result of a city deal with a local business.

But the Feds are different ... they can print money, most states, and all local governments ... have to live on a budget.  States that can go deeply into debt (see Calif) are a fool's paradise.  How do the Feds get away with it?  They are more creditworthy than any of the 50 states, and they can sell massive debt into the carry trade (liquidity in foreign markets and bonds).  When the dollar dies, that won't be possible.  If the US tries to kill the dollar, like Modi is trying to kill the rupee ... then this will collapse spectacularly, not gradually.

[Baruch]

Quick example of Dutch Capitalism
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPIhMJGWiM8

The Dutch were early competitors with GB ... and they fought trade and hot wars over it.  The people in London and Amsterdam were real enemies.  Besides the VOC of Holland, we had the BEIC and BWIC of Britain.  The US is partly based on the BWIC.  The US has been under corporate occupation since, Alexander Hamilton.

[SGOS]

We brought it on ourselves. Shopping at WalMart means supporting the Chinese economy. We want cheap goods but we want to make them here and we want high wages. Obviously that cannot work. Yeah, Mr. President-elect wants to play hardball with China but has half of his (and Ivanka's) business items made in China and Singapore.
I order items from China all the time because anything you choose, it's a fraction of the price of a comparable locally made item. So I am as guilty as the next guy but in order to be competitive, I have no choice. Trump just 'saved' a 1,000 jobs at Carrier, perfect window dressing. The company got a 7 million dollar tax incentive from the State per year plus federal tax breaks, that is costing the tax payer U$ 7,000 per employee every year, minimum. Now it's only a matter of time until other companies threaten to move operations abroad and receive similar tax concessions. Trump opened a can of worms that won't be easy to close again.
Capitalism is not going to die because it's main ingredient is greed. And that's not going away anytime soon. Shareholder happiness above all...

I had a now dead friend who abhorred Walmart because it "exclusively sold cheap stuff from China."  In searching for an outdoor patio table and chairs, he convinced me to by bypass Walmart in favor of Lowes, where I purchased a set.  When I got it home, I discovered and showed him the label that said, "Made in China."  He just grunted, but did not comment.  At this point, I don't know how we could survive without China.  The only television I know of made in the USA is Vizio, which I owned for one year until it conked out.  I gave the TV to him, and he used it for video games until he sold it to an unsuspecting buyer at a garage sale.

I hate the outsourcing of jobs, while giving tax breaks to corporations that do it, but that won't change, and as a consumer, I like to buy quality things at the lowest price.  We all contribute to this problem, including my friend who had a thing about China, who also owned an LG TV, which he didn't realize was made in China at the time.

[Baruch]

Once the horse is out of the barn, it won't come back.  We could have kept it in the barn 20 years ago, but we chose to leave the barn door open.

Nobody can save the US ... it is done.  Best to get onto the next big thing (if you live long enough).

But I would accept a slower decline, rather than the Thelma & Louise routine of the D&R party.

[GSOgymrat]

We brought it on ourselves. Shopping at WalMart means supporting the Chinese economy. We want cheap goods but we want to make them here and we want high wages. Obviously that cannot work. Yeah, Mr. President-elect wants to play hardball with China but has half of his (and Ivanka's) business items made in China and Singapore.

This is an analysis of how much it would cost consumers if the iPhone was manufactured in the US. It could be a complicated venture given that components are made all over the world. It is very interesting how these phones are made.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601491/the-all-american-iphone/










... To fully grasp the importance of trade in the high-tech economy, imagine a scenario even beyond what the candidates suggest: what if Apple tried to make an iPhone out of “American atoms,” so that the U.S. would not be at all reliant on foreign governments for access to the necessary materials?

According to King at the Ames Lab, an iPhone has about 75 elements in itâ€"two-thirds of the periodic table. Even just the outside of an iPhone relies heavily on materials that aren’t commercially available in the U.S. Aluminum comes from bauxite, and there are no major bauxite mines in the U.S. (Recycled aluminum would have to be the domestic source.)

An iPhone contains most of the elements in the periodic table, including ones not mined in the United States. The elements known as rare earths (which aren’t that rare but are tough to mine) would need to come primarily from China, which produces 85 percent of the world’s supply. Neodymium is needed for its magnets, like the one in the motor that makes the phone vibrate and the ones in the microphones and speakers. Lanthanum, another rare earth, goes into the camera lens. Hafnium, a metal that is not a rare earth and is rarer than most of them, is essential for the iPhone’s transistors.

In other words, “no tech product from mine to assembly can ever be made in one country,” says David Abraham, author of The Elements of Power, a new book about rare earth metals. The iPhone is a symbol of American ingenuity, but it’s also a testament to the inescapable realities of the global economy.