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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Hydra009


Hydra009

#1262
I can't pretend to fully understand this, but  Russian forces idiotically decided to put reactive armor on its Infantry Fighting Vehicles without properly reinforcing them first, which evidently not only won't work correctly, but presents a huge safety risk to the crew.

Essentially, if the anti-tank missile doesn't kill them, their own reactive armor will (Newton's third law)

Hydra009


Hydra009

Institute the Study of War assessment

QuoteUkrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places and captured over 3,000 square kilometers of territory in the past five days since September 6 – more territory than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April.

Ukrainian forces will likely capture the city of Izyum itself in the next 48 hours if they have not already done so. The liberation of Izyum would be the most significant Ukrainian military achievement since winning the Battle of Kyiv in March.

QuoteKremlin-sponsored TV propagandists offered a wide range of confused explanations for Ukrainian successes ranging from justifications that Russian forces are fighting against the entire Western Bloc, to downplaying the importance of Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCS) in Kupyansk.[4] The Kremlin's propagandists appeared unusually disorganized in their narratives, with some confirming the liberation of certain towns and others refuting such reports.
Ha!  They sound a lot like Fox News.  Suspiciously so...

QuoteRussian milbloggers condemned the Russian MoD for remaining quiet, choosing self-isolation, and distorting situational awareness in Russia.[5] One milblogger even stated that the Russian MoD's silence is a betrayal of Russian servicemen that fought and still fight in Ukraine.[6]
The reward for lying is distrust.

QuoteSome milbloggers noted that occupation administrations are disoriented and lack initiative.[10] The Ukrainian counteroffensive is effectively paralyzing the Russian occupation leadership that is likely afraid for its fate.
Good.  They should wake up and go to sleep every day with the same fear that the residents of Mariupol have known.

Hydra009

Increased US-Ukraine intel sharing key to Ukrainian counteroffensive plan

QuoteSenior Ukrainian officials stepped up intelligence sharing with their American counterparts over the summer as they began to plan the counteroffensive that allowed them to make dramatic gains in the northeast in recent days, a shift that allowed the United States to provide better and more relevant information about Russian weaknesses, according to American officials.
Knowledge Is Power.

Hydra009

Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant shuts down safely

Looks like Ukraine will no longer be threatened with the prospect of nuclear meltdown.

Hydra009



Cassia

Quote from: Hydra009 on September 11, 2022, 02:56:59 PMRed on Red:  Russian fighter likely shot down by Russian AA over Crimea
I remember an engineer back in the 80s say he worked on improving an Egyptian (Soviet design) Identify-Friend-or-Foe-System (IFF) and how it was unreliable crap. Basically, when a plane shows up on a missile system's RADAR, the IFF system pings the intruder and if it doesn't reply with a pre-arranged code, it's missiles away. He said instead of using a synchronous clocked design to verify the pulse trains, the circuitry relied on the propagation delays of logic gates; a characteristic that is so variable with temperature it is basically useless. It's like bad digital design 101.

This is the same country that landed image transmitting probes on Venus. I don't get it.

Hydra009


Hydra009

Russia loses roughly a battalion every day as Ukrainian counterattacks accelerate

QuoteThe Russian army is losing at least a battalion's worth of vehicles and men a day as twin Ukrainian counteroffensives roll back Russian territorial gains in eastern and southern Ukraine. That's hundreds of casualties and scores of vehicle write-offs every day.

These losses are catastrophic for Russia. The Russian army barely was sustaining a little over 100 under-strength battalions in Ukraine before Kyiv's forces counterattacked in the south on Aug. 30 and in the east eight days later.

In just under two weeks of brutal fighting, the Ukrainians have destroyed, badly damaged or captured 1,200 Russian tanks, fighting vehicles, trucks, helicopters, warplanes and drones, according to the Ukrainian general staff. Independent analysts scouring social media for photos and videos have confirmed nearly 400 of the Russian losses.

Around 5,500 Russian troops have died in Ukraine since Aug. 29, according to Ukrainian officials. It's possible the Ukrainians are overstating the death toll, but it's worth noting that recent U.S. estimates of Russian losses have been only slightly lower than Ukrainian estimates.

To put these numbers into perspective, Russian losses in Ukraine have swelled by a tenth in around 10 days—in a war that's 200 days old. The rate of Russian casualties and vehicle write-offs doubled then tripled as the Ukrainians launched their counterattacks.

Hydra009

ISW: Ukraine's recapture of Izyum puts stop to Russia's plans in Donetsk Oblast

The U.S. think tank said that Russia can no longer advance on Bakhmut or Donetsk from the north, meaning any advances towards the cities "have lost any real operational significance."


Hydra009



This guy is planning on taking Kharkiv, then Kyiv, LOL.  I don't think he could take a couple of kids in soccer.  Definitely not in those loafers.  As the Starks say, Winter Is Coming!