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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Shiranu

I'm still concerned that we haven't seen the muskovite themselves fighting, other than Wagner.

But perhaps Wagner really was all the military they had.
"A little science distances you from God, but a lot of science brings you nearer to Him." - Louis Pasteur

Hydra009

Quote from: Shiranu on September 07, 2022, 11:49:01 AMI'm still concerned that we haven't seen the muskovite themselves fighting, other than Wagner.

But perhaps Wagner really was all the military they had.
Russia has tapped almost all of the manpower it has available to it without mobilizing.  If they mobilize, they'd essentially be publicly admitting that the special operation has failed.  Such a move also has dire consequences for Putin's rule (and life).  Besides, it's unlikely that they can equip much more troops, as the 3rd Corps fiasco is showing.

As a result, Ukraine has mobilized and Russia has not.  In a war of attrition, Russia is fighting at a disadvantage before cards are even dealt.

Hydra009

Ukraine launches a surprise counterattack in Kharkiv region and encircles Russian forces

QuoteAn official representing the Russian-controlled Donetsk People's Republic said on Tuesday that Ukrainian forces "encircled" Balakliia, an eastern town of 27,000 people situated between Kharkiv and Russian-occupied Izium.

"Today, the Ukrainian armed forces, after prolonged artillery preparation ... began an attack on Balakliia," Daniil Bezsonov said on Telegram.

"At this time, Balakliia is in operative encirclement and within the firing range of Ukrainian artillery. All approaches are cut off by fire," he said, adding that a successful Ukrainian offensive would threaten Russian forces in Izium, a strategically important town that Russia has been using for its own offensive in eastern Ukraine.
Oh no, it'd be such a shame if Russia lost Izium, too.

QuoteWithout specifying any locations, the Luhansk regional governor, Serhiy Haidai, told Ukrainian television on Wednesday that a "counterattack is under way and ... our forces are enjoying some success. Let's leave it at that."

Hydra009

In probably related news, Ukrainian forces captured an alleged Russian lieutenant colonel near Kharkiv, which is fairly high up the food chain.  Definitely a significant loss for Russian forces in the area.

Hydra009

Putin says Russia has "lost nothing" since the war began back in February

At first, I thought that this is an obvious lie.  But it is the truth if and only if he considers Russian lives to be nothing.

Unbeliever

How can you lose anything if you never had anything to begin with?
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

Hydra009

Apparently, some Russian forces tried to escape the encirclement near Kharkiv by dressing like civilians and driving civilian cars.  80s action movie tactics, lol.  I guess they thought Ukrainian forces would never think that Russians would try to escape the completely encircled Russian position.  So yeah, they were captured.  Just as well that they ditched the military uniforms, they're not going to need them again for a long time.

Ukrainian forces also captured something of value: 2 electronic warfare units.  I assume they jam Russian mines within a small radius to allow Russian forces to freely travel through an otherwise deadly mine field.  Pretty smart.  The only wrinkle is that if you no longer control the jammers, you no longer control the minefield.  Hope they kept everyone in the loop.

Hydra009

Ukrainian forces denazify a whopping 640 invaders in 24 hours

Another banner day.  Attrition is destroying Putin's dream of conquest.  Every day, his dream becomes more uncertain and further from reality.

Hydra009

Norway donates Hellfire missiles to Ukraine, already there and ready to be used.  Russian forces should expect record high temps before winter.

Unbeliever

I see that Putin, along with other officials, fell asleep at a meeting about tourism. He was apparently quite fatigued, poor guy.
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

Cassia

Death of a Russian T90. I never worked on or designed any weapon systems, but I did interview with General Dynamics Electric Boat division and turned down the offer. Later, I did do some work on a military radio design, and I am OK with that. It's a decision engineers make.

I screen-captured a frame where the exposure was relatively long enough to capture both the incoming missile and the resulting explosion. Truely must be frightening to be a tank crew member, especially for the Russian invaders as the very portable NATO tank killers work very well. And just think there was a Ukrainian drone up there just watching that tank operate. Tanks must be deployed strategically to be effective.



Hydra009

Russian Z-propagandist laments "We have already lost"

Quote"The war in Ukraine will continue until the complete defeat of Russia," Igor Girkin, a far-right nationalist, grumbled in a video address to his 430,000 followers on Telegram on Monday. "We have already lost, the rest is just a matter of time."

QuoteThe Russian government has not published its own losses since 25 March, when it gave a total of 1,351 killed and 3,825 wounded.
lmao.  They lose more than that over a long weekend.  If trends continue, maybe a normal weekend.

QuoteInstead, since the onset of the war, the Russian defence ministry has repeatedly issued improbable statements about its successes on the battlefield, boasting of having destroyed more than 40 western-made Himars rocket launchers and claiming to have decimated the Ukrainian air force.

State television, the most popular source of information in Russia, similarly continues to paint a rosy picture of Russian successes in Ukraine.
Good.  I hope they continue to paint a false picture.  People who don't know the reality of the situation have great difficulty changing it.  (the exact reason why Moscow keeps their domestic situation from the populace)  Sooner or later, the truth gets out and it's going to come down on them like a ton of bricks.  Then shaky morale becomes utterly broken morale and this whole thing will be over.

Hydra009

St Petersburg municipal deputies call on state duma to charge Putin woth treason and remove him from office

Quote"We believe that President Putin's decision to launch an EWS is detrimental to the security of Russia and its citizens. In this connection, we ask you, as a member of the State Duma, to propose charges of treason against the Russian president to remove him from office," the appeal reads.

The texts also mentions the war is killing "young able-bodied" Russian citizens, the Russian economy is suffering, NATO is expanding eastwards and Ukraine is getting new weapons (although Putin called one of the goals of the invasion the "demilitarisation" of the country).
EWS is presumably the cyrillic acronym for Special Military Operation.

And they're not wrong, Putin's gamble with Russian lives has resulted in precisely the opposite of Putin's stated goals.

Western Europe is more united and influencial than ever, countries are begging to join the EU and/or NATO, and Ukraine is more militarized than ever, with an eclectic blend of seemingly every major power's military arsenal.  Russia is now a rapidly waning power and Ukraine is rising - exactly what Moscow feared the most.

Dark Lightning

^ Gonna be a bunch of deputies falling out of windows, soon...

Shiranu

Quote from: Dark Lightning on September 08, 2022, 03:57:36 PM^ Gonna be a bunch of deputies falling out of windows, soon...
If they are feeling bold enough to say this, perhaps Putin has lost the aristocracy.

I'm curious to see where this goes - Putin has seem in increasingly poorer and poorer health, and men in his profession haven't historically retired so peacefully in Russia.
"A little science distances you from God, but a lot of science brings you nearer to Him." - Louis Pasteur