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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Hydra009



We're always watching: Ukraine to receive new satellite data

QuoteICEYE will transfer full capabilities of one of its SAR satellites already in orbit for the Government of Ukraine's use over the region. The SAR satellite will be operated by ICEYE. In addition, ICEYE will provide access to its constellation of SAR satellites, allowing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to receive radar satellite imagery on critical locations with a high revisit frequency.
These satellites can peer through clouds to boot!  Expect a large and sustained influx of Russian base/depot destruction.  It's HIMARS o'clock!

Hydra009

When all you have is a hammer: Putin pins hopes on organized crime organization to win war

QuoteNearly six months into Russia's bloody war against Ukraine, it appears Vladimir Putin has pinned his hopes for claiming victory on a self-described "organized crime syndicate" that is now trawling prisons for cold-blooded killers and deploying mercenaries to straighten out fed-up troops.

QuotePrighozhin had visited personally on July 24 and told inmates the regular Russian military was "weakening" and "cannot cope" with the war.
Have they tried copium?  :P

Quote"I'm not afraid to say, we're an organized crime group [referring to Wagner Group] that helps the Russian army," another inmate, Alexei, quoted Prighozin as saying.

QuoteHe went on to say that, after talking to more people outside of prison about the war, he'd learned no one was getting paid the compensation they were promised and that it was all really just a "meat grinder."
Desperate.  Very desperate.

Hydra009

After cigarette-related explosions in Crimea, Russia redploys its remaining aircraft

Some deploy deeper in Ukrainian Crimea (won't help), many redeploy within Russian borders (helps a lot, provided they stay there)

The part that gets me is that Ukraine both knows and reveals what's going where, which is a power move if I've ever seen one.

The Ukrainians know what's going where, who's flying them, how many times a week they take a shower (trick question, it's twice a month), and their heart rate when these guys hear the word HIMARS.  They're terrified, as they should be, because their airbase could be next.

Hydra009

Ammo depot goes boom in Belogrod

Everyone's favorite Russian region, voted most flammable 6 months and counting.

Hydra009

No intel for you: Ukraine destroys invader satellite communications system in the southern front

Apparently also bagged an ammo depot.  Must be a day that ends in a y.

Cassia

The surprise to me is the complete lack of Russian air superiority.

Hydra009

Quote from: Cassia on August 18, 2022, 02:54:06 PMThe surprise to me is the complete lack of Russian air superiority.
Both sides deployed some serious AA early into the war and the air force now has to either stick to friendly territory or fly dangerously close to the ground to avoid being shot down.  Curiously, the Russians haven't made destroying AA a high priority.  Definitely a mistake.  Hopefully, Ukraine gets a chance to clear out enough Russian AA to fly in relative safety.

Cassia

Quote from: Hydra009 on August 18, 2022, 05:39:07 PMBoth sides deployed some serious AA early into the war and the air force now has to either stick to friendly territory or fly dangerously close to the ground to avoid being shot down.  Curiously, the Russians haven't made destroying AA a high priority.  Definitely a mistake.  Hopefully, Ukraine gets a chance to clear out enough Russian AA to fly in relative safety.
I remember Desert Storm when the US destroyed most of Saddam's anti-air, control, communications, and aircraft on the first few nights. The CNN reporters watched from the hotel balcony. All I heard about this time was that the Russians launched a giant artillery barrage. Just like WW2, LOL.

Hydra009


Desert Storm was probably the most well-planned and well-executed military operation the past 40 years.  So that's a high bar to clear.


Russia must've thought they could use paratroopers (VDV) to capture strategic sites, take cities quickly or bypass them entirely, and force Kyiv to surrender within just a few days.  Man, were they in for a surprise!

Btw, the US warned Ukraine about Hostomel.  The Ukrainians might've predicted such a move as well, because they had rapid response units paste those paratroopers and retake those airfields quickly.

Hydra009


Hydra009

Russian drone shot down, contains footage of their own base.  RIP

At this point, they might as well just send Ukraine letters with group photos and ID attached.

Hydra009

#1106


400 in one day, an unusually high deathtoll for the Ruscists.  Usually, it's in the high 100s or low 200s.  Someone must've commenced a special smoking operation near something combustible.

Edit - apparently at least 200 of the deaths can be attributed to failed (as usual) advances on Ukrainian battle lines.  What's unusual is that they received abnormally heavy losses in these advances.  I suppose Ukrainian intel, marksmanship, and/or weapons are improving.

Hydra009

Ukraine destroys 4 S-300 AA systems and a radar station along the Southern front

QuoteIn addition to the S-300, it was also possible to demilitarize 73 enemy personel, three tanks, one ammunition depot, and five units of armored and automotive vehicles during the day.

Hydra009