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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Hydra009

Russian tugboat downed in rough seas

I know it's not as exciting as downing a Slava-class cruiser, but this boat was filled to the gills with weapons and ammo and every time Ukraine blows up another logistics vehicle/ship, it saves civilian lives and reduces the length of the war.

Plus, it tells other ships in the Black Sea to back off, which is always nice.

Gotta take pride in the little victories, too.

SGOS

Quote from: Hydra009 on June 17, 2022, 09:47:44 AMRussian tugboat downed in rough seas
That may not have been a cruiser, but it was the biggest tug, I've ever seen.  I would never have called it a tug boat myself.  But there's several more millions of rubles down the drain.

Hydra009

#768
Dictator Putin cruelly subjects the russian people to unhinged 73-minute long rant about the West and the US in particular (QQ + die mad)

What a stable genius who totally has everything under control and doesn't at all drift from delusional imperialistic fantasties where he's some powerful tsar to bitter rage and tears at harsh reality filled with failure.

Hydra009

Ukrainian forces are within 10 km of Kherson and civilians have been ordered to evacuate the city.  Suffice it to say that a push there is imminent.

Hydra009

#770
Lithuania stops transit of sanctioned goods between Russia and Kaliningrad

The ban affects roughly half of all goods being transported from Russia to Kallingrad through Lithuania.

The only alternatives are comparitively more difficult routes by sea or air (gotta watch that restricted airspace).  Tough break for Vlad.  Maybe next time, don't massacre civilians and kidnap kids!

SGOS

Russia might be better off if they would just join the rest of the world, rather than try to own it.


Hydra009

7 invader ammo depots have gone boom in the past 3 days

QuoteIn last week, there is phenomenal increase in accuracy of Ukrainian artillery. Most warehouses and command centers are destroyed with 1st hit. Possibly better ammo, or better targeting. It's hard to measure and explain such increase
*wink wink*

Quotefor example 10 howitzers alone is nothing significant, but 10 howitzers with improved fire-control systems and artillery radars could be compared to 40 dumb Russian howitzers.
Heh.  Dumbfire, in more ways than one.

SGOS

It almost seems like Putin is counting on pulling a rabbit out of a hat.  But then I think, if he actually had a rabbit, he would have used it by now.  I don't have a great grasp of the big picture, but it seems like he's got three options.  Withdraw, go nuclear, or find that rabbit.  He shows no indication of stopping the invasion, and if he drags this out, what might he gain?  Is there some kind of concession he might be looking for?  Again, not having a grasp of the big picture, does the world need Russia at all? Does he have anything he could use to bargain with the rest of the world?

War seldom makes sense, and in this one, I can make no sense out of it at all, even when I reach for something ridiculous to make it seem logical.

Hydra009

#775
He really honestly thinks that Western support is going to dry up and he just has to push a little harder and any second now, the Ukrainian battle lines will give way.  Also that the energy and food crises will cause huge amounts of war weariness and we won't sacrifice our own economies for people we've never met and aren't major allies.

And that's partially true, Western support hasn't been quite as high as it could've been (but waaay more than Vlad initially expected), some shipments have been frustratingly delayed, and there is some level of dissention in our ranks, unfortunately.  And Ukrainian forces have unfortunately been in some tough spots.  High casualties, low ammo in some cases, and almost always outnumbered.

But if Vlad thinks the US and UK and Poland are dumping billions of dollars of equipment into Ukraine only to pull out when things get difficult, he has another thing coming.  We're in it to win it.

And when it comes down to war production, the Allies have Russia beat.  When it comes to attrition, Ukraine has Russia beat.  Russia has already lost huge amounts of war materiel (tanks, artillery, precision bombs, elite troops, officers, etc).  Hell, they're down to antique T-62s just three months into the conflict.  The writing is on the wall.  But lest we forget, Vlad can't read.  His world is shaped by his advisors and they blow smoke up his ass.  They tell him that victory is still within his grasp.  And he tells himself that unless he delivers a win, he'll wind up dead in a year.  And so the war drags on.

Hydra009



(Obligatory: YouGov polls aren't the most reliable in the world, so take it with a pinch of salt)

But generally speaking, support for Ukraine has not dropped off in the West much at all.  Strong majorities still support sanctions and sending aid to Ukraine and that number had barely changed.  If anything, there's a growing pressure to escalate our involvement and not drag out this conflict.

Cassia

Quote from: Hydra009 on June 20, 2022, 10:18:57 AMHe really honestly thinks that Western support is going to dry up.....
If the EU drops the ball now and Ukraine goes away....Don't come a knocking over here when Vlad takes Poland and Hungary and Romania. Germany...talking to you...you do know you are probably the ultimate goal for payback, right?

PopeyesPappy

Quote from: SGOS on June 20, 2022, 07:36:27 AMIt almost seems like Putin is counting on pulling a rabbit out of a hat.  But then I think, if he actually had a rabbit, he would have used it by now.  I don't have a great grasp of the big picture, but it seems like he's got three options.  Withdraw, go nuclear, or find that rabbit.  He shows no indication of stopping the invasion, and if he drags this out, what might he gain?  Is there some kind of concession he might be looking for?  Again, not having a grasp of the big picture, does the world need Russia at all? Does he have anything he could use to bargain with the rest of the world?

War seldom makes sense, and in this one, I can make no sense out of it at all, even when I reach for something ridiculous to make it seem logical.

Putin's pride is not going to let him stop short of anything less than control of additional territory in eastern Ukraine.

Logistical assistance alone to Ukraine is not going to stop the above from happening. The only thing short of Putin dying or a coup that sees him removed from power that can stop Russia from annexing additional parts of the Ukraine is going to be boots on the ground from NATO countries. Even this probably isn't going to work without taking the fight to Russia by attacking logistical supply lines/hubs in Russia and Belarus. That opens the door to Russia attacking other countries. i.e. WWIII.

Short of military intervention, Ukraine's best option to keep their territory is going to be to make it to expensive for Russia to hold on to it over the long term through insurgent operations. This is going to take years and a lot more people are going to die.

As far as the rest of the world needing Russia goes the answer is yes. Even though Russia is relatively poor by western standards it is the largest country on the planet. They have a significant share of the world's resources. A share that dwarfs their current GDP numbers. The rest of the world needs access to these resources. Over the long term climate change is also likely to open up large swaths of Russia that are currently sparsely inhabited to larger populations. People migrating from other places such as China and India are going to need someplace to go as those countries are negatively impacted by climate change.

Save a life. Adopt a Greyhound.

Hydra009