Wormtongue Lavrov's trip to Serbia cancelled due to neighboring countries closing their airspace to Russia

Quote"Our diplomacy has yet to master teleportation," a senior foreign ministry source told Russia's state-run Interfax news agency.

I have an excellent idea for an end to this war invasion of choice. Two easy parts:

1)  Russia. Get your ass out of Ukraine.  It's called 'Ukraine', not Russia. 

2)  Negotiations can begin. 

Sadly, Russia's not going to leave until they get soundly beaten and lose the territory they've gained.

Their current plan is to consolidate their holdings and trigger a food crisis on top of the existing energy crisis, hoping that it generates enough political pressure on Kyiv to halt the war and/or reverse sanctions.

That buys the Kremlin enough time to fully replenish their troops and then resume hostilities until they get what they want - the eradication of Ukraine and a New Russia with more oil and more wheat and freshwater ports.

Occupiers abandon checkpoints in Melitopol

This is deep in occupied territory.  Very strange and uncharacteristic behavior.

Mysterious fires in Russia compilation

Ukrainian forces destroy "elite" Russian unit

The battle lasted for 14 hours before the Ukrainians inflicted heavy casualties and forced a retreat.

QuoteThe Ukrainians went on to say that their Lviv-garrisoned paratroopers gave the Russians a "warm welcome" during the fight, after which the Russian brigade was beaten back in retreat, "leaving in their path through the forest a trail of the bodies of their dead."

"The coordinated actions of the artillery units of the 80th brigade, in the end, inflicted a mass artillery strike on the enemy," the post continued.

The russian unit was based in Pskov and considered elite, so there's a good chance it was the 76th Guards Air Assault Division (won't do much assaulting anymore)

In certainly related news, Ukraine estimates that an invader dies every 5 minutes in Ukraine.  That's 288 per day, which tracks with Ukraine's 50-100/day losses, which are high as well but much less than Russian losses.  Somewhere around a 1:3 or 1:4 ratio sounds plausible, based on reports.  Expect that ratio to change as increasingly sophisticated western arms pour into Ukraine.

In an unencrypted call (god I love these), a Russian soldier recounts brutal Ukrainian ambushes, complains of comparitively inaccurate artillery, and most importantly: lack of replenishment.  Music to my ears.


Keep the intel coming!

Quote from: Hydra009 on June 08, 2022, 10:41:10 AMIn an unencrypted call (god I love these), a Russian soldier recounts brutal Ukrainian ambushes, complains of comparitively inaccurate artillery, and most importantly: lack of replenishment.  Music to my ears.

Keep the intel coming!

I just don't understand how many times you need to be punched in the face to get it through your skull that you aren't welcome there.

I guess as many times as it takes, but it should not take this many... then again, we spent how many decades in Korea, Vietnam, the Middle East and elsewhere and didn't learn?

At least the Russians might have bit off more than they can chew.

Putin doesn't have an accurate picture and never did.  Dictactors rarely receive bad news.

According to one of my favorite books, Why Nations Go To War, one of the top reasons for greenlighting a war (and subsequently losing said war) is inaccurate assumptions. 

E.g. Thinking that the enemy is weaker than they are, thinking that your forces are stronger than they are, thinking the international community will let it slide like last time, etc.  Knowing your capabilities and your opponent's capabilities is at least as important as the presence of a McDonald's.

I think even Putin at this point understands this has gone south.  He keeps threatening to make things worse.  His 'Don't make me do it' is growing stale.

Is the man vile and juvenile enough to resort to 'if I can't have it you can't either'?  Go away, you petty little shit.

He knows it's not going exactly to plan - hence the shift east - but he still thinks this is winnable.

His all-out assault on Severodonetsk is evidence of that, as well as an attempt to project strength that doesn't exist in reality.  News outlets unintentionally aid this - "Severoodonetsk under intense bombardment" "Russia takes more territory in the east!" - it paints the picture of an unstoppable advance, emboldening Z-cultists and potentially disheartening Allies and causing them causing to rethink weapons shipments (if this war drags on and on, the drain on our own resources will be unacceptable, so we should cut off aid now)

The grain move was particularly devious and cruel - sowing discord and finger-pointing among Allies, putting intense pressure on Ukraine to end the war now for civilians' sake (allowing Putin to restart it from a position of strength), and overall causing hardships on the world (if I can't have what I want, I'll flip the table).

Of course, the grain doesn't necessarily have to be delivered from Ukrainian ports.  It could take a land route through Belarus.  Maybe you could cut some sort of deal with Lukashenko...

Lukashenko is probably sufficiently malleable to such a thing.  Right side of history and all that.

Russia:  We really really want to get the grain out to all those poor starving people.  Truly.  But first, there's just one tiny incy wincy thing we need you to do:  demine your ports

We definitely won't take advantage of your lowered defenses.  Promise!  There's no landing force or anything just waiting for an opportunity to strike.

Russian advance on Izium stalls

Russia tried to reconstitute its units after heavy casualties, but was unable to fully replenish

I'm sensing a theme...

In retailiation for sanctions and closed airspace, Russia stole foreign jets in its territory.  Real classy.

Well, it can't get adequate parts to maintain these jets due to sanctions.  So it's turning to bootleg parts, rendering this stolen air fleet useless.  It's like dumping $10 billion right down the drain.