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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Hydra009

Russia's (and China's) most advanced fighter shot down in Ukraine and enough of the plane is intact for it to be researched by UK/US governments

QuoteNow, as scientists in the United States and the United Kingdom investigate the remnants of a fighter jet, experts believe it might make a "huge difference" in how the West conducts air-to-air warfare with both Russia and China, inflicting a severe blow to Russia's military and industrial complex.
Scientia potentia est.


Hydra009

Zel's Counterattack:  Ukrainian forces launch major counteroffensive with the goal of liberating Kherson.

Currently, they have pushed fairly deep into enemy territory NE of Kherson and are attempting to cut enemy supply lines there.

Hydra009

115 members of Putin's privaye army fired for refusing to fight

QuoteThe Pentagon said this month that it had seen "anecdotal reports" that "mid-grade officers at various levels, even up to the battalion level", had "either refused to obey orders" or were not obeying them with the expected measure of "alacrity".

Hydra009

#664

Hydra009

#665
The wretched state of russian invader equipment:



Archaic rifles, what I hope is a radio, basically nil body armor (where tf are their helmets?!), and that's about it.  I'm not even sure if they get rations or just eat whatever they can forage/steal.

These guys might as well surrender just to have a hot meal and a decent place to sleep.

Cause otherwise, they're goners.  That Z might as well stand for 'zero chance'.  A technical alone could probably do the trick, let alone a mortar-dropping drone.  Heaven forbid an armored convoy comes through there.

And you better believe drones are drawn to that tricolor like vultures to roadkill.  They can literally see that flag from a mile away.

Just go away and save everyone unnecessary hardship.

Dark Lightning

I served in the US Navy, '72-'76, and in defense for another 27 years in the interval from '76 until 2014, when I retired (intervening years include insurance claims adjuster and high school teacher). We had an expectation about what the USSR (yes, I'm that old) could do. I remember when the USSR was crumbling and the US was asked to sequester fissile Uranium that could have potentially fallen into the wrong hands. What I'm seeing now is way worse. If the USSR/CIS/whatever it is called now, drops any lower in power, The Chinese are right there to pick up the reins. I consider the US manufacturing companies who transferred their capability to China to be greed monsters. The US suffers and is going to suffer for this mistake.

Hydra009

#667
Reading the current Institute of War assessment and it's like reading the academic assessment of Ralph Wiggim.

QuoteUkraine has twice forced Putin to define down his military objectives. Ukraine defeated Russia in the Battle of Kyiv, forcing Putin to reduce his subsequent military objectives to seizing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine stopped him from achieving that aim as well, forcing him to focus on completing the seizure of Luhansk Oblast alone. Putin is now hurling men and munitions at the last remaining major population center in that oblast, Severodonetsk, as if taking it would win the war for the Kremlin. He is wrong.
Putler is losing thousands of troops and ludicrous amounts of military hardware for some podunk town in the middle of nowhere just to eke out a purely political "win" whose cost was so horrendous that calling it pyrrhic would be an understatement.  Double pyrrhic?  Literally stabbing the sea would be more productive.

QuoteThe Russians continue to make extremely limited progress in their efforts to gain control of the unoccupied areas of Donetsk Oblast, meanwhile. Russian troops have struggled to penetrate the pre-February 24 line of contact for weeks, while Russian offensive operations from Izyum to the south remain largely stalled.
Invaders have been pushed out of Kharkiv and have yet to make any real progress since then.  I do not expect this to change.

QuoteRussian progress around Severdonetsk results largely from the fact that Moscow has concentrated forces, equipment, and materiel drawn from all other axes on this one objective.
No wonder the Ukrainians picked now for their southern counter-offensive.  The Russians put everything they had into a haymaker that didn't quite connect and got jabbed in the side for their trouble.

QuoteMoscow will not be able to recoup large amounts of effective combat power even if it seizes Severdonetsk, because it is expending that combat power frivolously on taking the city.
Win or lose, they're spent.  Idiotic.

QuoteThe Ukrainians continue to receive supplies and materiel from their allies as well, however slow and limited that flow may be. The Russians, in contrast, continue to manifest clear signs that they are burning through their available reserves of manpower and materiel with no reason to expect relief in the coming months.
Music to my ears.

QuoteEvidence of eroding military professionalism in the Russian officer corps is mounting. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian commanders are attempting to preserve military equipment by forbidding drivers from evacuating wounded servicemen or providing supplies to units that have advanced too far.[1] Refusing to risk equipment to evacuate wounded personnel on the battlefield—other than in extraordinary circumstances—is a remarkable violation of core principles of military professionalism. Such behavior can have serious impacts on morale and the willingness of soldiers to fight and risk getting injured beyond their own defensive lines.
Morale problem turned into a casualty problem.  How efficient.

QuoteZhychkovskiy noted that Russian commanders are responsible for high losses and cases of insanity among servicemen.
Full.  Metal.  Jacket.

Hydra009

Quote from: Dark Lightning on May 29, 2022, 11:45:11 PMI served in the US Navy, '72-'76, and in defense for another 27 years in the interval from '76 until 2014, when I retired (intervening years include insurance claims adjuster and high school teacher). We had an expectation about what the USSR (yes, I'm that old) could do.
Did it involve dusting off T-62s for use in 2022 because a 3-month war had chewed through about a third of their armor?

The USSR might've been a tough customer, but the Russian Federation is without a doubt a shadow of that.  Corruption has eaten through a lot of what was left.

And you're right, China is much better positioned as a true rival for the West.  China plays a much more cautious game and wisely stays out of foreign entanglements (for the most part).  But one misstep could have them right where Russia is now.  Even the idea of that is helpful in curbing their advances.  In time, they'll hopefully be the last of a dying breed of despotic states.

Hydra009

Ukrainian forces launch successful counterattack NE of Kherson

Russian losses:  63 troops, 19 units of equipment (some combination of T-72 tanks, Grad multiple rocket launcher, artillery, helicopters, and one Su-35 aircraft)

The Russians previously lost 6 helicopters in that area in short order, so those skies are looking awfully clear.  Not good for anyone on the ground.

Hydra009

Update to the above ^

Exact losses:
67 troops
6 T-62 tanks (yep, already lol)
2 Grad multiple rocket launchers
3 Msta-S self-propelled howitzers
3 armored personnel vehicles
13 *ahem* other vehicles
an Orlan-10 drone
And last but not least... a command post.

(*sung to tune of 12 Days of Christmas*)

Mike Cl

Quote from: Hydra009 on May 30, 2022, 12:49:42 AMDid it involve dusting off T-62s for use in 2022 because a 3-month war had chewed through about a third of their armor?

The USSR might've been a tough customer, but the Russian Federation is without a doubt a shadow of that.  Corruption has eaten through a lot of what was left.

And you're right, China is much better positioned as a true rival for the West.  China plays a much more cautious game and wisely stays out of foreign entanglements (for the most part).  But one misstep could have them right where Russia is now.  Even the idea of that is helpful in curbing their advances.  In time, they'll hopefully be the last of a dying breed of despotic states.
Reminds me of Fallout 3 where the game takes place well after a US-China conflict in which nukes were liberally used on both sides.  Fun in a game, but not in real life.
Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able?<br />Then he is not omnipotent,<br />Is he able but not willing?<br />Then whence cometh evil?<br />Is he neither able or willing?<br />Then why call him god?


Hydra009

Slow learners:  Chornobaivka struck by Ukrainian forces again (I've lost count of how many times this has haappened) this time it blew up an ammo depot

Hydra009

Ukrainian soldier downs third Russian aircraft in two months

You read that right, some guy on the ground with a MANPAD is downing Russian planes like he's at a turkey shoot.

Latest kill was a Su-25 aircraft with an Igla.  Imagine what he could do with a Stinger or Starstreak.