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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Hydra009

Russian troops are starting to use sandbags (novel technology), and these geniuses decided to use ammonium nitrate instead of sand

At first, I thought that this is too dumb to be true, but then I remembered that these are the same brainiacs who camped out in a forest that's so radioactive that it literally changed the colors of the trees.

Hydra009

Russian state TV: War in Ukraine rehearsal for war with NATO

Quote"We'll test and compare NATO weapons with our own. We'll find out on the battlefield how much stronger our weapons are than theirs," he said.
LOL dare ya.

Actually, they have had a taste of it in Syria when Wagner forces were mauled by US forces. Suffice it to say that it was not peer level.

Hydra009

Earlier, Putin said Russia was deploying laser weapons to combat drones (no doubt to embolden troops who have been savaged by them)

Well, turns out that was all talk.  The Pentagon sees no evidence of laser weapons at all.

Hydra009

#633
In the South, Ukrainian forces destroyed  36 invaders, three T-72 tanks, and a Grad multiple rocket launcher

In the luhansk region, Ukrainian forces hold back a surge of Russian invaders as they wait for western artillery to be brought in so they can conduct a proper counter-offensive.


Hydra009


Hydra009

#636
Russian propagandist shot videos with Russian heavy mortar vehicle.  Less than 24 hours later, Ukrainians forces blow it to bits

Lessons learned:
1) operational secrecy is important - location can be figured out from footage (you'd think they would've figured this out after the assault landing ship Saratov sank after being in shown off in propaganda footage and was similarly targeted and destroyed)

2) artillery that remains stationary is a sitting duck for counter-battery fire (shoot-and-scoot is artillery 101)

3) Very poor cover/concealment.  Practically begging to be destroyed.

Conclusion:  Russia repeatedly botches warfare basics and reaps the reward.

Hydra009

A bridge too far: Ukrainian forces destroy another pontoon bridge, deny another Russian river crossing

Apparently there have been several of these lately but I assumed they were reposts of the same news item.  Instead, the Russians suffered a catastrophic loss and decided to do it again and again.  Smh.


Hydra009

#639
Near Lviv, Ukrainian forces shoot down an Su-25 plane and destroyed 14 paratroopers

Strange place to attack, so far from the front lines and so close to Poland.

Russian state media says they destroyed a western arms shipment, but Russian state media says a lot of things and isn't credible.  Still, it makes sense that they'd be trying to do that there, they just likely weren't successful, otherwise western media would be abuzz about it.

Hydra009

#640
Zelensky says that Ukraine loses about 50-100 soldiers a day, which is troubling.

But they currently have 700,000 total troops.

And they take comparatively light losses compared to the Russians, who lose at least 200 on any given day, based on reports I've seen.  Sometimes, it's much higher than that.  On rare occasions, they lose the equivalent of a whole battalion, which is around 600-700.

Russian forces are predicted to become too depleted to continue within 90 days, far sooner than Ukranian forces.  Still, that's 4500 - 9000 Ukrainian kia by then.  Not good.

But the predictions, which have been on track so far, give Ukraine a total victory as Russian lines collapse from attrition.

Hydra009

#641
Desperate: Russia tries to prepare T-62 tanks (from the 1960s) to replenish ranks.

Quoteit is extremely difficult to call these machines effective, as it's really difficult to conduct combat operations having the 15-mm gun, without both automatic loading and ancient fire control system and night vision.

This is the equivalent of hauling your Ford Pinto out of storage because the road proved too dangererous for your CR-V and Honda Accord.  Third time's a charm!

Hydra009

Ukraine air defense shoots down 4 naval-fired cruise missiles near-simultaneously.  The missiles were targeting Ukrainian infrastructure (and possibly an outhouse)

They've shot down 110 cruise missiles so far.

The Kremlin's bombardment strategy, which must've seemed great on paper, doesn't appear to be nearly as effective in reality.  Very expensive and burning through a very limited stockpile of precision missiles.

Cassia

Quote from: Hydra009 on May 23, 2022, 02:23:52 PMUkraine air defense shoots down 4 naval-fired cruise missiles near-simultaneously.  The missiles were targeting Ukrainian infrastructure (and possibly an outhouse)

They've shot down 110 cruise missiles so far.

The Kremlin's bombardment strategy, which must've seemed great on paper, doesn't appear to be nearly as effective in reality.  Very expensive and burning through a very limited stockpile of precision missiles.
Got me to wondering if the US military forces would be almost as vulnerable to anti-ship, anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles and drones? Could say, 150 anti-ship missiles launched at the same time by a certain large Asian country take out a bazillion-dollar US nuclear powered aircraft carrier? We saw glimpses of this in Nam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

Hydra009

#644
US naval vessels currently prioritize anti-missile defenses and are working on anti-drone defenses, afaik.

All modern ground forces are highly vulnerable to drone technology, especially those whose military doctrine relies heavily on massed tank columns (Russia and China)

All nations would be wise to rethink any military adventurism and seriously contemplate another strategy for the time being.