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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Cassia

Quote from: Hydra009 on April 28, 2022, 05:58:03 AMI think I'll pull through.

Russia has threatened a lot of stuff over the past two months, including attacking most of its neighbors, attacking arms shipments, even attacking any country that donates arms. They even threatened the UK in particular with...something a few days ago.  Last I checked, the UK is still standing.

In fact, they haven't made good on virtually any threat, except for very small, petty threats like cutting Poland off from gas.

So why sorry about words alone?
Just because Putler may feel like a man with nothing left to lose if Russia gets little or nothing for all the cost. Would he be done? Could he continue on after that?

John F. Kennedy said: 'Nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war.'

Use of tactical nukes (or even hardcore use of chemical weapons) by Russia in Ukraine would be particularly tough for NATO to deal with. What is the correct response? During a recent war game, the US responded by nuking Belarus.
 

Hydra009

Quote from: Cassia on April 28, 2022, 11:18:46 AMJust because Putler may feel like a man with nothing left to lose if Russia gets little or nothing for all the cost. Would he be done? Could he continue on after that?
Perhaps Putin is a suicidal man, perhaps not (personally, I doubt he would kill the only thing he cherishes).

But Putin derives his power from oligarchs who most definitely are not suicidal.  If faced with the utter ruin of Russia or the removal of Putin, they will make the obvious choice.

Mr.Obvious

#482
Problem for the oligarchs is that to try and fail means death as well.
And with how closely the kgb watches them, trying to arrange something must feel like a suïcide mission.

Honestly, I wouldn´t be surprised  if it turned out putin had those two oligarchs recently killed, along with their family, even without them trying to conspire against him. If only to make it look like they did so that other oligarchs would not even think about turning on him. That he fabricated his own insurrectionists to prevent a real insurrection.
"If we have to go down, we go down together!"
- Your mum, last night, requesting 69.

Atheist Mantis does not pray.

Hydra009


Hydra009

Countering PuZin propaganda:  Russia's hand was forced by NATO expansion


Hydra009

Belarus, Russia want to form "union state"

Some sort of Union of ex-Soviet Socialist Republics.

Hmmm...now where have I heard of this before?

Hydra009

#486
Slovakia said it would donate all its Mig-29s to Ukraine if its allies will protect its skies until it gets new F-16s in 2024.

Well, Poland just offered to patrol Slovakia's airspace in the meantime, enabling Slovakia to go through with the Mig donation!

Cassia

I do hope China is paying attention. It seems NATO did let Putin slide for too long and leaders thought he was a reasonable man. Maybe he was, maybe his health is failing now, and he wants his big-time legacy. Well, that's not really working out for him, is it?

Hydra009

US House overwhelmingly approves Lend-Lease for Ukraine

They could've pushed it through before the two-week recess, but c'est la vie

Hydra009

Quote from: Cassia on April 29, 2022, 10:08:28 AMI do hope China is paying attention.
I do, too.  The moral of the story is that sometimes the West will let things slide and sometimes they'll come down on you like a ton of bricks. 

And if you don't pull a fait accompli in the first week, they will rally around the defending country and do everything they can to disrupt the aggressor country. We're talking unprecedented levels of cooperation. If you rely on imports in any way, kiss those goodbye.

And you better bring your A-game to the information war, because every dirty deed and secret on the aggressor side is going to get out, while the defenders get extremely sympathetic coverage.  The defending leader is going to be a world hero and other leaders are going to hang by his/her every word.

Meanwhile, the world is going to watch your troops get droned on TikTok and they're going to cheer.

If you think you're ready for that, you're not.

ferdmonger

Vlad's in a corner
Oh what will he do
I really don't know
and neither do you

He could be insane
Or medically sick
Or just plain suffrin'
From little man's dick






Hydra009

So, a Russian commander had just finished a battle and was doing a walk-and-talk on camera and was abruptly killed by shelling.

The lack of training is really showing.

Hydra009

Not-so-friendly-fire:  Two groups of Russian troops fire on each other, dead and wounded in both groups

Hydra009

Meet the heroes: Javelin/NLAW operator destroyed 6 armored vehicles in one day

Quote"It would be very difficult for us to contain the enemy without Western anti-tank weapons. After all, Russians have a lot of equipment and they spared neither hardware, nor personnel at the beginning of the war. And now the situation is completely different. The enemy knows we have Javelins and NLAWs, they fear them like plague, and this fear paralyzes them and undermines their morale," the soldier added.