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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Hydra009

#435
Turkey has closed its airspace to Russian planes carrying troops to Syria

Unlike European/American airspace bans, this one really hurts Russia.  It turns a straightshot into a much more circuitous route, adding time and fuel costs.  Bleeding rubles.

As you can see, Russian flights can't cut through Europe, so their only practical route is through Iran and Iraq, which is certainly not ideal.

Turkey's been the understated MVP in frustrating Russian aggression - blocking Russian warships access to the Black Sea and easy access to Syria.

Sure, Russia could try to pass through anyways, but Turkey is dead serious about shooting down Russian planes on their turf.  They've done it before..


Hydra009

#437
My brother is really into that.  Parkinson's, maybe?

I half-jokingly compared Putin to Phaeton from Exosquad.

That villain marched to war and galvanized opposing factions into a formidable united front, sealing his doom from day 1.  He took over lots of territory but couldn't hold it as determined resistance with more and more advanced weapons eventually outmatched his forces.  Halfway through the war, the villain started dying from illness (he wore a special outfit to conceal his grotesque, disfiguring disease progression) and exhibited increasingly erratic and self-destructive behavior, eventually causing his most trusted generals to plot against him or simply desert their posts.   Sound familiar?

Shiranu

Firstly, sorry I've left you to do all the heavy lifting in this thread Hydra; between work and mental I just haven't been able to work up the energy to post here.

QuoteTurkey's been the understated MVP in frustrating Russian aggression - blocking Russian warships access to the Black Sea and easy access to Syria.

Secondly... it's almost like spending several hundred years provoking someone (the Russians and the Ottomans were kinda, slightly, just a little, not too friendly with each other) makes them more likely to hate you in the future.

Who would have thought?*




*other than literally everyone who wasn't a massive empire at one point.
"A little science distances you from God, but a lot of science brings you nearer to Him." - Louis Pasteur

drunkenshoe

That's Montreux Convention. The Turkish government has declared that they will act according to the convention with no exceptions. But Turkey's not strong enough to stand against Russia in any way. Too big, too powerful, too close and not to mention two country has been shit wired into each other for a very long time in a fatal, twisted way.
"science is not about building a body of known 'facts'. ıt is a method for asking awkward questions and subjecting them to a reality-check, thus avoiding the human tendency to believe whatever makes us feel good." - tp

Dark Lightning

My eldest son is currently at Incirlik AFB. He was set to rotate back to the US but is stuck, for now, because of the war.

Hydra009

Quote from: drunkenshoe on April 24, 2022, 04:01:53 AMBut Turkey's not strong enough to stand against Russia in any way. Too big, too powerful, too close and not to mention two country has been shit wired into each other for a very long time in a fatal, twisted way.
Doesn't matter.  Article 5.  Russia will think twice.

Hydra009


A LOOOONG video, but a good one, I think.

Basically, no matter what happens in Ukraine tomorrow, the West has already done significant harm to the Russian economy and taken away a very sizable chunk of Russia's warchest.  Russia won't collapse tomorrow, and may lean on China to survive the worst of it.  But the main take-away is that the West can absolutely win the economic long game with Russia and destroy its war-making ability for years if not decades.

Hydra009

#443
Sanctions hit Russian economy

Quote"The government wants to paint a picture that things are not as bad as they actually are," said Michael Alexeev, an economics professor at Indiana University who has studied Russia's economy in its transition after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

A closer look, however, shows that the sanctions are taking a bite out of Russia's economy:

— The country is enduring its worst bout of inflation in two decades. Rosstat, the state's economic statistics agency, said inflation last month hit 17.3%, the highest level since 2002. By comparison, the International Monetary Fund expects consumer prices in developing countries to rise 8.7% this year, up from 5.9% last year.
A tank manufacturer had to shut down, the main russian shipyards had to shut down, an industrial plant that manufactures SAMs shut down, etc.  Job losses in the hundreds of thousands in Moscow alone.  Brain drain.  Partial default.  The real possibility of stagflation.  Etc.

Putin is artificially inflating the ruble by forcing Russian businesses to buy the ruble (losing significant amounts of money in the process).  And the stock market only looks okay because it's mostly not open.

This seemingly good financial health is an illusion.  The real situation is Russians fighting over bags of sugar at the grocery store like piranhas.

Hydra009

#444
Caught 'em napping: Russian soldier found sleeping

Bring him inside, give him a nice cot to sleep on, and relieve him of his gun.  He won't be needing it anymore.

Russia benefits from this big myth of boldness, grit, and fearsome determination.  Take a look.  Do you see any of that in reality?

*edit - may be a russian soldier filmed by other russians


Hydra009

Meet the heroes: Green


This guy stole an invader truck full of ammo, sneaked it past a Russian checkpoint (lol), and delivered it safely to Ukrainian forces.

Hydra009


ferdmonger

 
Quote from: Hydra009 on April 25, 2022, 08:31:54 AMMeet the heroes: Green


This guy stole an invader truck full of ammo, sneaked it past a Russian checkpoint (lol), and delivered it safely to Ukrainian forces.

Good on you, Mr. Green.

ferdmonger

So how about the cruise missiles?  How many does Russia have that function.  10,000? 1200? 56?

I don't know, but is Vlad the Mad just going to keep pounding Ukrainian cities into dust while his three day 'special operation' continues to fail spectacularly. I  guess Vlad will decide how much carnage to unleash to cover for his miscalculations.