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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Hydra009

Russian talking heads weigh in on the "special operation"

First, they say Ukraine is receiving NATO weapons (true)
Then, NATO is sending its soldiers to operate such weapons (not necessarily)
Finally, Russia is at war with NATO countries and winning (lol no.  If they were, they'd know it.  Casualties would be skyhigh)

North Koreans are less delusional.  Russia can't take Kyiv, and they want Europe?  Poland would chew them up and spit them out. Lunatics.

Hydra009

A few days ago, the Netherlands said it was sending "heavier equipment" to Ukraine.  Now we're getting into specifics.  Specifically, they're sending German-built Panzerhaubitze 2000 long-range armored howitzers.  These things are no joke and a hell of an upgrade from Ukraine's old soviet tech.

1) armored (as opposed to the field guns they've mostly been using)
2) relatively fast vehicle
3) fast firing rate, firing every 3-6 seconds
4) long range of 30-40km

This could be a game-changer.  Russia's been relying heavily on bombardment tactics so far, since massed assaults are meatgrinders for them.  Let's see what happens when Ukraine has better artillery backed by shared intel!

PopeyesPappy

Quote from: Hydra009 on April 21, 2022, 11:27:32 AMA few days ago, the Netherlands said it was sending "heavier equipment" to Ukraine.  Now we're getting into specifics.  Specifically, they're sending German-built Panzerhaubitze 2000 long-range armored howitzers.  These things are no joke and a hell of an upgrade from Ukraine's old soviet tech.

1) armored (as opposed to the field guns they've mostly been using)
2) relatively fast vehicle
3) fast firing rate, firing every 3-6 seconds
4) long range of 30-40km

This could be a game-changer.  Russia's been relying heavily on bombardment tactics so far, since massed assaults are meatgrinders for them.  Let's see what happens when Ukraine has better artillery backed by shared intel!

These along with the counter battery radar system they are getting from the US and the Netherlands should help a lot.
Save a life. Adopt a Greyhound.

Hydra009

Apparently I've been focused on the wrong warzone.  Lots of mysterious fires going on in Russia.  Rough seas?  (Too soon?)

Fire at weapons facility in Tver kills 7, fire at chemical plant in Kinesha

Speaking of mysterious, 2 Russian oligarchs got the ultimate sanction.  In both cases, they were found dead from violence along with family members and another family member found the bodies.  Both men were tied to russian gas giants.

The first one was ruled a murder-suicide.  Maybe that's correct.  Maybe it's not.  Who knows.  But I'll tell you this, I'd bet 6-months pay that Putin knows.

Dark Lightning

Quote from: Hydra009 on April 21, 2022, 09:39:54 PMApparently I've been focused on the wrong warzone.  Lots of mysterious fires going on in Russia.  Rough seas?  (Too soon?)

Fire at weapons facility in Tver kills 7, fire at chemical plant in Kinesha

Speaking of mysterious, 2 Russian oligarchs got the ultimate sanction.  In both cases, they were found dead from violence along with family members and another family member found the bodies.  Both men were tied to russian gas giants.

The first one was ruled a murder-suicide.  Maybe that's correct.  Maybe it's not.  Who knows.  But I'll tell you this, I'd bet 6-months pay that Putin knows.

Needs more Polonium...

Hydra009

US to send $800 million worth of military aid to Ukraine, including 72 howitzers, 144,000 howitzer rounds, and 121 Phoenix Ghost drones.

These new drones are particularly interesting.  Similar to Switchblade drones, which essentially kamikaze enemy vehicles, but different.  And especially intriguing - specifically geared towards Ukraine's battlefield situation in Donbas.

If I had to guess, I'd assume it could excel at destroying grouped vehicles.  Or maybe it hands out travel brochures to the Red Forest.  Either one would be devastating.


Hydra009

Russia plans to steal land in southern Ukraine to link up with Transnistria, deny Ukraine the sea, surround Ukraine

The weird part is Transistria.  Those are just separatists, right?  Not some sort of pseudo-secret Russian-controlled enclave?  So why would Moscow care about them?

Hydra009

France to supply 12 Caesar self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine

These things are no joke, either:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAESAR_self-propelled_howitzer
* fully computerized (so I assume extremely accurate)
* can fire 6-8 rounds per minute
* max range of 42km
* vehicle speed of 31mph-62mph depending on the terrain

40 Ukrainian soldiers arrived in France to train on them.

Hydra009

Ukraine's current artillery:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2S7_Pion
And yes, it can theoretically fire nukes.

Dark Lightning

My hope is that enough firepower makes it to Ukraine to repel the Russian invasion. I'm sure that a lot of eastern Europe is with me on this. The whole thing is sickening.

Hydra009

Quote from: Dark Lightning on April 22, 2022, 10:50:28 PMMy hope is that enough firepower makes it to Ukraine to repel the Russian invasion.
So far, they're holding strong.  The live map has a TON of russian bombardment, which is scary but doesn't appear to be particularly strategically significant *looks at photos of bombed livestock pen*

The good news is that Russian advances have failed and been turned back.

QuoteOn April 22, Joint Forces successfully repulsed eight attacks by Russian invaders in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Ukrainian defenders destroyed nine tanks, three artillery systems, 18 units of armored and 13 units of other military vehicles, an armored combat vehicle, and a fuel tanker.

Air defense units shot down four Orlan-10 unmanned aerial vehicles.
Also, unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces bombed a Russian command post near Kherson.  I'd LOVE to post more about that when it hits the press.

Hydra009

#432
I've been reading reports that these advances are causing heavy attrition among Russian forces for minor territorial gains, if anything.  And that this heavy attrition is rapidly degrading their fighting ability, so in time, they'll be so spent that Ukrainian forces will be able to fairly easily push them out, especially with the influx of western artillery.

(This is essentially what happened in Ukraine's northern front, which now no longer exists)

If so, this war could be over sooner rather than later.


Dark Lightning

I'm really hoping that the armaments being sent arrive in time to cashier the Russian Army right the fuck out of Ukraine. It's a shame that said armaments weren't sent sooner, but I guess politics fuck everything up. It would have been nice to not see so much destruction; it's just sickening to me.