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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Cassia

Quote from: Hydra009 on March 05, 2022, 10:28:55 PMSo we've gotten to the part where the Russian advance has ground to a halt, Ukraine has been making something of a counteroffensive, everyone and their brother has divested from Russia, Putin is begging for no more sanctions while at the same time threatening to end Ukraine's existence as a sovereign state (this dude is like a couple months from swallowing a gun or getting strung up like Mussolini), oh and both Georgia and Moldova applied for EU membership.

We certainly live in interesting times.
It's like a megayacht-of-the-day gets confiscated. Read somewhere even Sweden thinks NATO isn't such a bad idea... but who knows what is real anymore on all these insane new feeds. 

Hydra009

Quote from: Cassia on March 05, 2022, 10:54:24 PMIt's like a megayacht-of-the-day gets confiscated. Read somewhere even Sweden thinks NATO isn't such a bad idea... but who knows what is real anymore on all these insane new feeds. 
There was a blurb the other day about a big mansion being seized from an oligarch that could be used to house Ukrainian refugees.  Now that would be quite a sight to see!

Hydra009

Red VS Red

Do you ever wonder why we're here?  No, I mean literally, why we're stuck in the world's worst traffic jam eating F-tier rations, no petrol, almost no ammo, and shooting at our own forces?

Hydra009

#168
The invaders were reportedly gearing up to assault Kyiv, but the latest news definitely put that on ice:

- A Russian convoy near Kyiv was annihilated ("There is no need to be afraid. The Russian army is not strong, it is just long. We will eat them slowly, like a salami.")
- Another Russian fuel convoy annihilated
- Another Russian general KIA
- Ukrainians captured another airfield
- 30 (!) Russian helicopters destroyed on the ground

Suffice it to say that the war has not necessarily progressed to Russia's advantage.

At this rate, in two weeks they'll have to beg to be towed back to Russia (be sure to get the payment upfront, the ruble isn't looking so good atm)

Mr.Obvious

Sadly, I do take both sides´ claims with a grain of salt.

But here is yo remaining Hopeful.
"If we have to go down, we go down together!"
- Your mum, last night, requesting 69.

Atheist Mantis does not pray.

SGOS

Quote from: Mr.Obvious on March 08, 2022, 07:11:35 AMSadly, I do take both sides´ claims with a grain of salt.

But here is yo remaining Hopeful.
From Hydra's Red vs Red article:

QuoteAccording to USA Today, thousands of Russian citizens across the country have risked prison to protest Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

Since the invasion began, over 8,000 Russians have reportedly been taken into police custody for antiwar activities.

In response to the dissent, the Russian parliament passed a law on Friday allowing citizens to be punished for spreading what the Kremlin deems "fake news" regarding the invasion in Ukraine. Violators face up to 15 years in prison.

Russian officials have also forced journalists to call the attack on Ukraine a "military operation of demilitarization," essentially forbidding them from using the term "war."

"It becomes dangerous to cover news in Ukraine," Olga Bychkova, Echo of Moscow's deputy editor in chief, told USA TODAY. She noted that Russia's new law targeting speech is "blurry" and "allows authorities to go after anybody."
In reading this Western Press information, I have come to dislike Putin and the Russian Government more than ever, but I take all of this with a grain of salt too.  It makes me wonder; When the US invades another country, what does the non-Western press read like?  I'm guessing it too must be quite scathing and reproachful, but we don't have very good access to that over here.

Hydra009

#171
Quote from: Mr.Obvious on March 08, 2022, 07:11:35 AMSadly, I do take both sides´ claims with a grain of salt.

But here is to remaining Hopeful.
Yes, as you should.  However, both sides have different methods of reporting and distort the truth to vastly different degrees.

For example, Russia did not even report any war casualties early in the conflict while every other source reported hundreds of Russian KIA, with a significant amount of footage to substantiate it.

Ukraine, in contrast, generally reports fairly truthfully, perhaps a slight exaggeration here and there; Ghost of Kyiv stuff.  Their main technique is to portray Ukrainians in as a heroic and sympathetic light as possible, while showing russian forces as cruel or pathetic as possible.  An adjustment that requires significantly less effort than their russian counterparts.

Ukrainian source:



Russian source:



From my own posts, I generally report surprising developments, which can give a skewed impression of an endless string of Russian failures and routs - that the Russian military is a paper tiger that cannot do anything right.  Obviously, this is not the case.

About 20% of Ukrainian territory has been successfully conquered and held.  However, this amount has not changed much in the past week, which gives me some hope.  There has also been a significant loss of life among Ukrainian civilian populations as well as a considerable amount of Ukrainian military KIA, which I note but intentionally don't draw attention towards because it can be very discouraging.

I'd much rather focus on russian defeats to give some amount of hope that the conquest of Ukraine is not a foregone conclusion, but something that can be prevented.  And with each passing day, donated arms/equipment flows into Ukraine, foreign fighters (many are elite troops) flock to Ukraine's defense, more money pools into Ukrainian coffers while Russia's economy bleeds like a sieve, etc.  Every day Ukraine stands firm - every day russian forces fail to gain much ground, every day that Kyiv stays standing - it becomes less and less likely that it will be conquered.  Slava Ukraini!


Hydra009

UK to donate its most advanced man-portable AA to Ukraine

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starstreak

When deployed, this could further weaken Russia's already weak air raids (they switched to night attacks for "enhanced survivability") and further split russian convoys from their air support.

Shiranu

A surprisingly accurate description of the war on Ukraine... from a year ago, and from Russia.

https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/taood7/uncanny_predictions_of_ukraines_war_from_april/
"A little science distances you from God, but a lot of science brings you nearer to Him." - Louis Pasteur

Blackleaf

#175

According to Pat Robertson, the REAL reason Putin decided to invade the Ukraine is because God compelled him to, so that God could get the end times out of the way. To be clear, Pat Robertson isn't saying that Putin is right to invade the Ukraine, but that God is basically pulling the same heart-hardening trick he pulled on the pharaoh, when he made the pharaoh go after the Israelites, just so he could kill him. In this case, Pat thinks Putin obtaining control of the Ukraine will get him one step closer to Israel...somehow. And that will officially kick off the apocalypse.
"Oh, wearisome condition of humanity,
Born under one law, to another bound;
Vainly begot, and yet forbidden vanity,
Created sick, commanded to be sound."
--Fulke Greville--

Hydra009

Ukrainians launch a counterattack against russian forces east of Kyiv, eliminate another russian commander

Another huge setback for russian invaders' goal of taking Kyiv.

And military experts seemed surprised the unexpectedly poor tactics among the russian forces, racing through open road without caution or infantry support only to run face-first into an entirely predictable ambush.  Putin admitted to using conscripts, so poor training is likely a big factor in their failure, though it doesn't explain the notably subpar equipment, logistics, and communications.  I feel misled by their much more competent portrayal in the movies.

Hydra009

Russia complains that China refuses to supply aircraft parts

QuoteAgencies including Interfax quoted Valery Kudinov, a Rosaviatsia official responsible for maintaining airplane airworthiness, as saying that Russia would look for opportunities to source parts from countries including Turkey and India after a failed attempt to obtain them from China.
lol, good luck trying to get them from a NATO country.  India is a little more realistic.

After sanctions hit Russia hard, they've been relying heavily on China for succor, not unlike North Korea.  This gives China a significant amount of leverage.  I wouldn't be surprised if years from now, Russia had become largely dependent on China and taken on a somewhat subservient role.  Russians have long regarded China as a little brother.  That dynamic could be reversed in the future.

Cassia

Quote from: Shiranu on March 10, 2022, 11:10:30 AMA surprisingly accurate description of the war on Ukraine... from a year ago, and from Russia.

https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/taood7/uncanny_predictions_of_ukraines_war_from_april/
And.. he is an church trashing atheist and stunningly vampyrish.

Shiranu

Quote from: Cassia on March 10, 2022, 08:01:35 PMAnd.. he is an church trashing atheist and stunningly vampyrish.

How this guy still has a place in Russian media, much less in Russia period, is beyond me. Apparently he use to be the modern equivalent to the court jester for Putin, his opposition and criticism being a thing of amusement rather threat like it is with others.
"A little science distances you from God, but a lot of science brings you nearer to Him." - Louis Pasteur