https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-16/deutsche-bank-bnp-face-reality-of-168-billion-hedge-fund-deal
German to-big-to-fail bank. They are killing off their investment bank business. 18,000 banker staff laid off. If Germany can't save the remainder, then the German economy will fall down too.
Quote from: Baruch on July 17, 2019, 12:10:47 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-16/deutsche-bank-bnp-face-reality-of-168-billion-hedge-fund-deal
German to-big-to-fail bank. They are killing of their investment bank business. 18,000 banker staff laid off. If Germany can't save the remainder, then the German economy will fall down too.
The world economy is overdue for a serious retraction. Trump is doing his best to encourage it, because he will gain from it The Chinese economy is reaching a disbalance of investment and over-reach (the local and regional governments are borrowing heavily). The EU is struggling with Brexit. The US stock market is on an over-confidence bubble. Investors are assuming the Dow will go up forever. 1929, anyone?
I bailed out to treasury notes and CDs at DOW 25,500. I regret the bad timing, but I sure wont be damaged when the fewmets hit the windmill. Or I might miss out on great gains. The important thing to me is that I not lose what I have. But I bet that in 5 years, I'll be better off.
One never knows. But I do know one thing... I won't LOSE anything.
Quote from: Cavebear on July 20, 2019, 08:31:39 AM
The world economy is overdue for a serious retraction. Trump is doing his best to encourage it, because he will gain from it The Chinese economy is reaching a disbalance of investment and over-reach (the local and regional governments are borrowing heavily). The EU is struggling with Brexit. The US stock market is on an over-confidence bubble. Investors are assuming the Dow will go up forever. 1929, anyone?
I bailed out to treasury notes and CDs at DOW 25,500. I regret the bad timing, but I sure wont be damaged when the fewmets hit the windmill. Or I might miss out on great gains. The important thing to me is that I not lose what I have. But I bet that in 5 years, I'll be better off.
One never knows. But I do know one thing... I won't LOSE anything.
Being dynamic is a good idea, until it isn't. You have to jump, but not into the fire. Yes, the trade war with China, and the potential hot war with Iran add additional jokers to the deck, but I ain't laughing. I think the damage from Brexit is exaggerated, because staying in the EU ties you to the German suicide complex.
Quote from: Baruch on July 20, 2019, 11:41:18 AM
Being dynamic is a good idea, until it isn't. You have to jump, but not into the fire. Yes, the trade war with China, and the potential hot war with Iran add additional jokers to the deck, but I ain't laughing. I think the damage from Brexit is exaggerated, because staying in the EU ties you to the German suicide complex.
First, listening to Canon in D on a harp... OMG.
Second, I've expected Trump to ruin the global economy, but it is taking longer than I thought. I wasn't trying to time the market, of course (a fool's errand) but I was expecting a politically-forced economic pull-back by now. Cost me 13%... Well, what's $130,000 in the long term? I'll buy back in when the Dow hits 18,000.
Or not. When you have enough to live on, it's sort of all Monopoly money.
I suspect Putin's agenda is to invade Europe, and Trump's job for him is to keep America from interfering when he does. The UK is already unlikely to be able to do much of anything, and after America's political institutions have been sufficiently degraded, America will be unable/unwilling to do anything, either.
I surely do hope I'm wrong!
Quote from: Unbeliever on July 20, 2019, 01:28:42 PM
I suspect Putin's agenda is to invade Europe, and Trump's job for him is to keep America from interfering when he does. The UK is already unlikely to be able to do much of anything, and after America's political institutions have been sufficiently degraded, America will be unable/unwilling to do anything, either.
I surely do hope I'm wrong!
I rather sadly agree. The US can't do another D-Day in the modern age of nukes and drones and cyberattacks. THat is why NATO is so important to both Europe and the US. The only way to win that war is to PREVENT IT FROM HAPPENING by economic and other means.
Some people fear Trump for domestic reasons (and those are valid concerns). But I fear global consequences. Militarily, Putin could take Europe. And there are only 2 choices if he does.
Surrender it. Or
Boom, we're all dead. Everyone. Madmen don't care.
Quote from: Cavebear on July 20, 2019, 12:16:09 PM
First, listening to Canon in D on a harp... OMG.
Second, I've expected Trump to ruin the global economy, but it is taking longer than I thought. I wasn't trying to time the market, of course (a fool's errand) but I was expecting a politically-forced economic pull-back by now. Cost me 13%... Well, what's $130,000 in the long term? I'll buy back in when the Dow hits 18,000.
Or not. When you have enough to live on, it's sort of all Monopoly money.
Pachabel? Might be better on harp. Harp is going to be like harpsichord ;-) We mostly here forte-piano ... and that muddles the notes together.
Quote from: Unbeliever on July 20, 2019, 01:28:42 PM
I suspect Putin's agenda is to invade Europe, and Trump's job for him is to keep America from interfering when he does. The UK is already unlikely to be able to do much of anything, and after America's political institutions have been sufficiently degraded, America will be unable/unwilling to do anything, either.
I surely do hope I'm wrong!
I am hoping Putin goes all the way, defenestrates the US Congress ;-)
You gay boys want him ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkpuRLJhll8
Quote from: Baruch on July 20, 2019, 04:03:45 PM
Pachabel? Might be better on harp. Harp is going to be like harpsichord ;-) We mostly here forte-piano ... and that muddles the notes together.
The notes are SO specific when plucked... Although I couldn't prove it wasn't a harpsichord. I suppose one could even do it on a guitar.
If I were Russian, I would certainly support Putin ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrWRaQo4dkg
Quote from: Baruch on July 20, 2019, 04:05:27 PM
I am hoping Putin goes all the way, defenestrates the US Congress ;-)
You gay boys want him ...
I'm more worried about his election games here. That should be worth sinking a warm-water Russian port...
Quote from: Cavebear on July 20, 2019, 04:13:46 PM
I'm more worried about his election games here. That should be worth sinking a warm-water Russian port...
He and the KGB are all powerful. They are right now radioing to your tooth fillings to lull you into a false sense of confidence. How much like Dick Cheney (who also never fought in a war) are the arm chair generals here. I always advise ... avoid warfare if at all possible. Most times it is, but not always.
Quote from: Baruch on July 20, 2019, 04:30:47 PM
He and the KGB are all powerful. They are right now radioing to your tooth fillings to lull you into a false sense of confidence. How much like Dick Cheney (who also never fought in a war) are the arm chair generals here. I always advise ... avoid warfare if at all possible. Most times it is, but not always.
Putin and the FSB (the new name) are not all powerful. They, like most nations, can attack others with cyberwarfare at will, but they are not what you think they are.
A threat? Certainly. And many nations attempt to influence other nations' elections. We do too. Just another problem to solve. We'll adjust.
Quote from: Cavebear on August 01, 2019, 05:12:08 AM
Putin and the FSB (the new name) are not all powerful. They, like most nations, can attack others with cyberwarfare at will, but they are not what you think they are.
A threat? Certainly. And many nations attempt to influence other nations' elections. We do too. Just another problem to solve. We'll adjust.
So, you saw thru the sarcasm. You must have already had your coffee ;-)
Quote from: Baruch on August 01, 2019, 07:12:42 AM
So, you saw thru the sarcasm. You must have already had your coffee ;-)
Green Tea. Sometimes Oolong. But that's for when I get up. Right now, I'm still Zinfandel-powered...
Quote from: Unbeliever on July 20, 2019, 01:28:42 PM
I suspect Putin's agenda is to invade Europe, and Trump's job for him is to keep America from interfering when he does. The UK is already unlikely to be able to do much of anything, and after America's political institutions have been sufficiently degraded, America will be unable/unwilling to do anything, either.
I surely do hope I'm wrong!
Putin knows Russia is in no position to invade Europe. Aside from being a petty tyrant, Putin is much better versed in military and geopolitical strategy than Trump.
The real danger is that Putin will roll the dice on a strategy that could well break up NATO once and for all. If he sends his little green men in unmarked uniforms to cause problems in Latvia, Estonia, or Lithuania the way he did in Ukraine, he'll deny they're his troops. Trump with his usual stupidity and submissiveness to Putin will waffle. I can picture his fat mouth spewing, "He says they're not his."
Putin could of course pull his troops out if it gets too risky for him, but by then no nation in NATO will trust the USA, at least under Trump, to implement Article 5.
Quote from: aileron on August 02, 2019, 05:22:23 PM
Putin knows Russia is in no position to invade Europe. Aside from being a petty tyrant, Putin is much better versed in military and geopolitical strategy than Trump.
The real danger is that Putin will roll the dice on a strategy that could well break up NATO once and for all. If he sends his little green men in unmarked uniforms to cause problems in Latvia, Estonia, or Lithuania the way he did in Ukraine, he'll deny they're his troops. Trump with his usual stupidity and submissiveness to Putin will waffle. I can picture his fat mouth spewing, "He says they're not his."
Putin could of course pull his troops out if it gets too risky for him, but by then no nation in NATO will trust the USA, at least under Trump, to implement Article 5.
Yeah, I think now it's not Europe he intends to invade, but he may well want to reconquer the Baltic states that have been lost to Russia, the former Soviet countries, and do so without undue interference from the West, either America or Europe.
Quote from: Unbeliever on August 02, 2019, 05:29:27 PM
Yeah, I think now it's not Europe he intends to invade, but he may well want to reconquer the Baltic states that have been lost to Russia, the former Soviet countries, and do so without undue interference from the West, either America or Europe.
Revanchism is real. Putin does put on both legs of his pants at the same time (that Russian hopping dance is useful). Like old generals, y'all are always fighting the last war.
Yeah, the last war. I don't think humans will ever fight the last war, until there are no humans left to fight any more wars at all.
Quote from: Unbeliever on August 02, 2019, 05:29:27 PM
Yeah, I think now it's not Europe he intends to invade, but he may well want to reconquer the Baltic states that have been lost to Russia, the former Soviet countries, and do so without undue interference from the West, either America or Europe.
I think you two give Putin far too much credit.
Thinking and expecting ruthless dictators to be sane, to be controlled and not "too" ambitious has gotten humanity into some really terrible situations the last several hundred years.
I know, all we can do is wait and see what Putin will do. I think he's very ambitious, though.
Quote from: Unbeliever on August 03, 2019, 05:42:02 PM
I know, all we can do is wait and see what Putin will do. I think he's very ambitious, though.
But not Emperor Xi, or the current homicidal leader of Saudi Arabia (American ally)? You just are jealous we can't jump (unless Black) or Russian dance (unless Russian).
I don't care about some stupid bank, one which was a player in the 2008 collapse, if memory serves. Please don't try to distract me from my Trump stuff.
Quote from: SGOS on August 04, 2019, 10:27:18 AM
Please don't try to distract me from my Trump stuff.
I am making faces to the screen right now and distracting you from your Trump stuff.
Quote from: drunkenshoe on August 04, 2019, 12:52:58 PM
I am making faces to the screen right now and distracting you from your Trump stuff.
Goddamit!
Trump is a weapon of mass distraction all by himself.
Quote from: SGOS on August 04, 2019, 10:27:18 AM
I don't care about some stupid bank, one which was a player in the 2008 collapse, if memory serves. Please don't try to distract me from my Trump stuff.
You don't care, until your investments/checking are zeroed out.
If the banks collapse, how with the Socialists steal all the accounts to pay for their utopia?
Quote from: Unbeliever on August 02, 2019, 05:29:27 PM
Yeah, I think now it's not Europe he intends to invade, but he may well want to reconquer the Baltic states that have been lost to Russia, the former Soviet countries, and do so without undue interference from the West, either America or Europe.
Putin's goal is to incrementally reconstitute the Soviet Union without the burden of communists and get warm water ports and resources.
Quote from: Cavebear on August 05, 2019, 08:55:56 AM
Putin's goal is to incrementally reconstitute the Soviet Union without the burden of communists and get warm water ports and resources.
He is a patriot. Are you?
Quote from: Baruch on August 05, 2019, 11:53:12 AM
He is a patriot. Are you?
Putin is no more a "patriot" than Trump or any other wanna-be dictator is. Wanting power for the sake of the is not patriotic. I may not be either. I'm more attuned to the advancement of the human species (responsibly) than any particular nation. Though I do think the US is a decent start.
Quote from: Cavebear on August 05, 2019, 12:53:02 PM
Putin is no more a "patriot" than Trump or any other wanna-be dictator is. Wanting power for the sake of the is not patriotic. I may not be either. I'm more attuned to the advancement of the human species (responsibly) than any particular nation. Though I do think the US is a decent start.
I am not Russian. So I don't support his goals. But I can understand them. You want to conquer the world, to remake it in the mold of Boston MA. Clearly you are a globalist, and no globalist can be a patriot, because patriotism means nationalism.
Do you have tourette's, since you must mention Trump (a curse word) in most of your posts?
Quote from: Baruch on August 05, 2019, 01:08:06 PM
I am not Russian. So I don't support his goals. But I can understand them. You want to conquer the world, to remake it in the mold of Boston MA. Clearly you are a globalist, and no globalist can be a patriot, because patriotism means nationalism.
Do you have tourette's, since you must mention Trump (a curse word) in most of your posts?
If I said you were "Russian", I apologize. Actually, you are more Czarist.
I AM a globalist. But it takes a good nation to lead the way. In that regard, I am also a patriot.
Trump deserves worse than I say about him. But actually, I mention him a lot because he is at the center of a general collapse of global democracy. I wish him a successful MCheart attack... The sooner the better.
Quote from: Cavebear on August 05, 2019, 01:25:02 PM
If I said you were "Russian", I apologize. Actually, you are more Czarist.
I AM a globalist. But it takes a good nation to lead the way. In that regard, I am also a patriot.
Trump deserves worse than I say about him. But actually, I mention him a lot because he is at the center of a general collapse of global democracy. I wish him a successful MCheart attack... The sooner the better.
Be who you are. But don't expect support for being who you are. I don't. You credit Trump with super powers ... TDS. The US is not a good nation. Yes, I am a bit monarchial ... Czar and younger son (not Nicholas) reviews Russian military academy graduates.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svwYR3L7Vrs
The communists were ... animals. Still are.
The Russians are people too. Not sub-humans. Actually rather Western.
Quote from: Baruch on August 05, 2019, 01:29:28 PM
Be who you are. But don't expect support for being who you are. I don't. You credit Trump with super powers ... TDS. The US is not a good nation. Yes, I am a bit monarchial ... Czar and younger son (not Nicholas) reviews Russian military academy graduates.
The communists were ... animals. Still are.
The Russians are people too. Not sub-humans. Actually rather Western.
I rather like Russians. Just not the KBG hangovers. I had great hopes for a Russo-European coalition that connected to NATO for years.
Well, of course I am who I am. So are you. So is Kim Jong-un for that matter.
I don't credit Trump with superpowers. I discredit his information-and-evidence allergic followers. No authoritarian leader can get anywhere without simplistic gullible followers. I blame them...
Quote from: Cavebear on August 05, 2019, 01:39:03 PM
I rather like Russians. Just not the KBG hangovers. I had great hopes for a Russo-European coalition that connected to NATO for years.
Well, of course I am who I am. So are you. So is Kim Jong-un for that matter.
I don't credit Trump with superpowers. I discredit his information-and-evidence allergic followers. No authoritarian leader can get anywhere without simplistic gullible followers. I blame them...
The Czarist Okrana taught the Cheka ... down to todays Russian Federal Security. The Okhrana.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okhrana
They created the Protocols of the Elders of Zion to justify pogroms against Jewish citizens. And totally failed to stamp out the revolutionaries.
Nixon also wanted us, post Soviet collapse, to bring Russia into Nato. Truman tried to bring Stalin into the Marshall Plan. Russians are very paranoid people. The US played the China card instead.
Quote from: Baruch on August 05, 2019, 01:51:58 PM
The Czarist Okrana taught the Checka ... down to todays Russian Federal Security. The Okhrana.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okhrana
They created the Protocols of the Elders of Zion to justify pogroms against Jewish citizens. And totally failed to stamp out the revolutionaries.
Nixon also wanted us, post Soviet collapse, to bring Russia into Nato. Truman tried to bring Stalin into the Marshall Plan. Russians are very paranoid people. The US played the China card instead.
Good post! But, Nixon lived post-collapse? I do lose track of the dear departed sometimes. Huh.
Quote from: Cavebear on August 05, 2019, 01:54:53 PM
Good post! But, Nixon lived post-collapse? I do lose track of the dear departed sometimes. Huh.
To busy bossing your department, no doubt. If you were ex-Marine, you would have had them all doing pushups ... but they would be healthier.
Quote from: Cavebear on August 05, 2019, 01:54:53 PM
Good post! But, Nixon lived post-collapse? I do lose track of the dear departed sometimes. Huh.
Yeah, I thought the Soviet Union collapsed about 1989, or so. Was Nixon still extant?
Quote from: Unbeliever on August 05, 2019, 02:04:42 PM
Yeah, I thought the Soviet Union collapsed about 1989, or so. Was Nixon still extant?
So hard to Google it on your iPod mini.
Quote from: Baruch on August 05, 2019, 01:58:31 PM
To busy bossing your department, no doubt. If you were ex-Marine, you would have had them all doing pushups ... but they would be healthier.
I was never Management.
But to the point, Nixon died of a stroke in April in 1994. The Soviet Union dissolved in parts, but 1990 would be a good year of assignment. Most of the Soviet resources were lost to breakaway nations that year (I took a college course in it in 1992). So there was some overlap between then and Nixon's death. What influence he had on world affairs or even internal US politics escapes my memory; I can't recall any.
And I doubt that Bill Clinton would have paid any attention to an old diehard fart any more than Trump asks Clinton (either one) for advice. So I'll say Nixon had no influence.
Didn't want to start whole new thread for this, but this one should do just fine:
QuoteAccording to new data from the federal reserve, if current trends of the rich getting richer and the middle class getting poorer continues at their current rate, in 33 years the top 10% of Americans will own one hundred percent of all American wealth. Everyone else will be in poverty and in debt. Right wing billionaires like Donald Trump are cheering this on, calling for more tax cuts on rich people and less power for working people through the continuing destruction of unions and fighting the minimum wage.
They tell us that the problem is not corporate monopoly and rich people taking everything for themselves....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCbvSHG-vdI
They already do. You simply haven't met your owners yet, right Fifi?
Quote from: Unbeliever on August 07, 2019, 06:03:48 PM
Didn't want to start whole new thread for this, but this one should do just fine:
Are you familiar with the Phillips Curve? It is a graph that showed (in my college days) that revolutions tend to happen JUST AFTER things get slightly better in any economy. I found it fascinating, but never understand why it seemed to be accurate.
Perhaps now I do. The US economy is booming, businesses are thriving, but people are unhappier. It's because the gains are going to just a few. The successful times for the US have been when there was a healthy thriving middle class. The middle class is disappearing today, and that leads to social failure of democracy in general.
There is nothing that guarantees the success of the US. History shows that nation rise and fail. The US will not be an exception unless it returns to a middle class base. And a middle class base depends on fair politics. Everywhere a political/wealth class has arisen, elites gather the wealth and the middle class sinks into poverty.
It IS happening here. It CAN be reversed, but only with great effort. Gerrymandering, Citizens United, high donations by individuals, and consolidation of neutral media into cause companies has to be stopped.
I'll be 70 next year. I probably won't be around to see the collapse if it happens. It would be gradual. But I might be around to see it reversed for at least a while if steps are taken to take government back from the ultra-wealthy class.
In the early 1900s, we had the Robber Barons. They were stopped by deliberate effort. We have new ones now. They can also be stopped. But it takes votes for the right people and support for the right laws.
Phillip's Curve ... that is how the French Revolution happened. In France there wasn't a sitting legislature. With the opening of the Estates (Parliament) things had just gotten better. But from that point, it went completely out of control.
It was a Republican, Teddy Roosevelt, who fought back against the robber barons. Democrats simply demand their fair share of the graft.
Quote from: Baruch on August 08, 2019, 07:25:42 AM
Phillip's Curve ... that is how the French Revolution happened. In France there wasn't a sitting legislature. With the opening of the Estates (Parliament) things had just gotten better. But from that point, it went completely out of control.
It was a Republican, Teddy Roosevelt, who fought back against the robber barons. Democrats simply demand their fair share of the graft.
Very Good about the French Revolution. Or did you look that up maybe?
Teddy fought against the Robber Barons, but Taft actually did more. Well, he did have Roosevelt to begin it. Credit to both.
Quote from: Cavebear on August 08, 2019, 07:33:54 AM
Very Good about the French Revolution. Or did you look that up maybe?
Teddy fought against the Robber Barons, but Taft actually did more. Well, he did have Roosevelt to begin it. Credit to both.
Well, I have read a bit about the early French Revolution.
On the there hand, Teddy felt that Taft betrayed him, so I don't know if he felt positive about Taft's efforts with anti-trust.
Quote from: Baruch on August 08, 2019, 07:36:25 AM
Well, I have read a bit about the early French Revolution.
On the there hand, Teddy felt that Taft betrayed him, so I don't know if he felt positive about Taft's efforts with anti-trust.
No, seriously, you are the only other person who has suggested to me that he/she knew about the Phillips Curve. (and especially that it came from a study of the French Revolution).
Teddy R did feel that Taft betrayed him, but that has nothing to do with Taft's very successful anti-trust efforts.
Quote from: Cavebear on August 08, 2019, 07:46:57 AM
No, seriously, you are the only other person who has suggested to me that he/she knew about the Phillips Curve. (and especially that it came from a study of the French Revolution).
Teddy R did feel that Taft betrayed him, but that has nothing to do with Taft's very successful anti-trust efforts.
Thanks for the clarification.
Having read, I read some more. That is why I know things. Most human beings don't do that.
Quote from: Baruch on August 08, 2019, 01:28:59 PM
Thanks for the clarification.
Having read, I read some more. That is why I know things. Most human beings don't do that.
I probably learn more when people say I'm wrong about something (and I go check) than when they say I'm right. Not that I'm ever wrong of course...