So...if 2025 couldn't get crazier, now we have the potential for an pretty sizable asteroid impact (https://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/nasa-says-yes-asteroid-buzzing-2032-hit-earth-rcna191951)
It even has its own wiki (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_YR4)
1) Granted, it's in 2032. So it's scheduled to happen just before the release of Winds of Winter (Sorry George, I couldn't help myself)
2) there's really only a 2.3% chance - a figure that's climbed in recent days. But D&D fans know better than most that a 1 in 20 chance events happen all the friggin' time.
People are awful at understanding probability - tell them that there's a 1 on 93 chance of dying in a car crash and they say "won't be me" and tell them that there's a 1 in 292 million chance of winning the lottery and they buy a ticket and imagine all the ways they'll spend their fortune. So here's the probability cone:
(https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/images/news/2024yr4_s40_ca_uncertainty.png)
Anytime a big asteroid comes between the moon and the Earth, that's a really, really, really close call in astronomical terms.
3) And finally, it's *only* a locally-devastating asteroid, not a planet-killer.
Let's say that it does in fact hit Earth. Finer minds than me have put its possible impact area as anywhere from northern South America to west Africa to India and Indochina and of course all the oceans in between. Let's say we're lucky and it hits the water. Figuratively hits the water because this one will almost certainly explode in the air as a sort of airburst - which imho isn't any less scary than it just hitting the ground.
What sort of explosion are we talking about? Just a little bang to scare the fish? Oh nothing much, just the equivalent of 7.6 megatonnes of TNT. No biggie.
In both the estimated size and explosion, this asteroid is awfully similar to the one that caused the 1908 Tunguska event, which was locally devastating and the only reason it isn't more famous is that it hit one of the least populated places on Earth. Plus, it happened before astronomy had become very advanced, so it was poorly documented, only recorded by eyewitnesses and seismic stations after the fact.
This threat is so worrisome that China has set up a team to try to counter it (https://www.newsweek.com/china-sets-planetary-defense-unit-over-2032-asteroid-threat-2029774)
From what I've read about trying to deal with these sorts of situations, the best solution surprisingly isn't to train oil drillers to fly a space shuttle to land on the asteroid, plant a nuke on it, and fly away as the bomb goes off and Aerosmith music plays. The best solution is just to fly something else alongside the asteroid for a while and the minor gravitational pull would be enough to veer it off course. No Ben Affleck. No nukes. No tense scene at Mission Control. Just boring ol' physics.
You could also crash something into it, that way you know for sure that you're actually changing its trajectory, which is a bit more exciting.
My hillbilly cousins believe in God but not in asteroids. This is why I skip the annual family get-togethers. (That and 1,500+ hillbillies in one spot? Fuck that.)
If video games have taught me anything, it's that this is no mere astroid. This is a giant egg, containing a massive and powerful monster. When it strikes, it will reshape the Earth and awaken the ancient gods, who will plunge us into a second stone age. The best we'll be able to do is pick the god we think will win in the great war, lest we become the victor's next meal.
I have a deep personal relationship with Ghidorah-sama.
I'm partial to Armadon, myself.
Quote from: Gawdzilla Sama on February 13, 2025, 07:36:06 PMI have a deep personal relationship with Ghidorah-sama.
How deep, and how personal? 🤔
Full fathom five.
Quote from: Blackleaf on February 13, 2025, 06:12:13 PMIf video games have taught me anything, it's that this is no mere astroid. This is a giant egg, containing a massive and powerful monster. When it strikes, it will reshape the Earth and awaken the ancient gods, who will plunge us into a second stone age. The best we'll be able to do is pick the god we think will win in the great war, lest we become the victor's next meal.
???
^ At least it isn't the game where the asteroids are invisible.
I remember Asteroids! It wasn't my absolute favorite, but it was close. My favorite was Tron, because it was several games in one.
Anybody remember "Chopper"? Table game where you flew through a series of caves and shit. 1980s-ish.
Quote from: Gawdzilla Sama on February 14, 2025, 06:53:06 AMAnybody remember "Chopper"? Table game where you flew through a series of caves and shit. 1980s-ish.
No, but I remember a game called F-22, in which you flew an (you guessed it) F-22.
It was really easy to win against the enemy, just by flying straight up toward the sun, so that their heat-seeking missiles couldn't find you, then, at the top of your arc, you flip 180 degrees and fly straight down at them and destroy them all. Then you only have choppers and ground-targets to deal with, and they were super easy, barely an inconvenience.
The wire-frame tank game was ... odd.
Kind of a silly non-update: Asteroid has a 0.3% chance of hitting the moon (https://www.space.com/the-universe/asteroids/city-killer-asteroid-2024-yr4-could-hit-the-moon-instead-of-us-scientists-say)
QuoteThe potentially hazardous asteroid measures an estimated 180 feet (55 meters) across — about as wide as Walt Disney World's Cinderella Castle is tall
JFC, just convert to metric already. Astronomers use it. The military uses it. Your local pharmacy uses it. It's base 10, it's sensible, it's scalable, almost everyone else already knows it, and you don't have to make crazy analogies like comparing an asteroid to a disney castle.
You know what, I'll do it too to show how crazy this is. The asteroid is as wide as a stack of 5500 pancakes turned on its side. Do you see how crazy that is? That's like "small boulder the size of a large boulder" crazy.
Quote from: Hydra009 on February 16, 2025, 08:25:10 PMKind of a silly non-update: Asteroid has a 0.3% chance of hitting the moon (https://www.space.com/the-universe/asteroids/city-killer-asteroid-2024-yr4-could-hit-the-moon-instead-of-us-scientists-say)
JFC, just convert to metric already. Astronomers use it. The military uses it. Your local pharmacy uses it. It's base 10, it's sensible, it's scalable, almost everyone else already knows it, and you don't have to make crazy analogies like comparing an asteroid to a disney castle.
You know what, I'll do it too to show how crazy this is. The asteroid is as wide as a stack of 5500 pancakes turned on its side. Do you see how crazy that is? That's like "small boulder the size of a large boulder" crazy.
155 meters. You know how long a meter is? It's 155 of them. If you have to have an analogy, let's go with something less trademarked and more international - the asteroid is slightly bigger than the Great Pyramid of Giza (138.5 m)
Well, what is that in giraffes? I recall awhile back that some space junk was posted as being so many giraffes, but I'm not finding the article, now.
https://totallythebomb.com/asteroid-5-giraffes-wide
How wide is a giraffe? 🦒
1/5 of an asteroid.
Quote from: Unbeliever on February 16, 2025, 09:09:09 PMHow wide is a giraffe? 🦒
Depends on the giraffe. That's one stupid metric, I'll tell you! I'd like to know what passes for a mind that reports this kind of silliness.
in no way an expert on state of the art rocket weaponry but i feel that any moving object can be destoryed while moving: )
Well, it can be destroyed, but most of the resulting pieces will continue going the same direction, hitting whatever they were going to hit.
Quote from: Unbeliever on February 16, 2025, 10:38:56 PMWell, it can be destroyed, but most of the resulting pieces will continue going the same direction, hitting whatever they were going to hit.
Nope, unless the projectile was rather close to the target. Ruining the aerodynamic structure of the rocket will slow it down dramatically. If the engine is still firing it will very likely blow up.
Solid or encased shells not so much, but mid-air collisions do tend to randomize a flight path.
Quote from: Gawdzilla Sama on February 17, 2025, 07:52:30 AMNope, unless the projectile was rather close to the target. Ruining the aerodynamic structure of the rocket will slow it down dramatically. If the engine is still firing it will very likely blow up.
Solid or encased shells not so much, but mid-air collisions do tend to randomize a flight path.
Maybe it will hit the White House.
Oh no.
They should rename it The Orange House.
Quote from: Unbeliever on February 17, 2025, 12:16:15 PMThey should rename it The Orange House.
The Burnt Orange House.