http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-gop-has-a-big-problem-and-its-not-donald-trump_us_57a379ace4b0c863d40055ed?section=&
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The party is unable to shift their stance on social issues without alienating a significant section of their base, and this directly prohibits them from evolving.
According to data from the Pew Research Center, the portion of white Evangelicals who identify as Republican has increased by 5% between the last two presidential elections (65% in 2008, 70% in 2012.) That’s a significant number. And during this time, white Evangelical support for Democrats fell from 28% to 24% resulting in the GOP creating a 46-point advantage within this powerful electorate. According to the same 2012 data, 80% of Mormons identified as Republican, up from 68% in 2008. And across the religious expanse, the GOP holds a significant advantage with all groups except Jews.
Meanwhile, the United States is collectively evolving on social issues. Again, according to data from the Pew, public opinion on gay marriage has shifted dramatically in recent years. In 2008, only 39% of Americans supported gay marriage and that increased to 48% in 2012 and 55% in 2016. There’s clearly a trend occurring here. And, as data from Gallup shows, in 2015 50% of Americans identified as pro-choice, while only 44% identified as pro-life. This is the first time since 2008 that the pro-choice side has had a significant lead.
Social issues do not hold as much sway as national security, the economy or health care, but they definitely have an impactâ€"especially with younger voters. And as the Republican base has fractured and embraced the evangelical wing of their party, they have become representative of Evangelical views, which has handicapped the party from evolving on issues like gay marriage and abortion. Data from 2015 shows 3.8% of American adults identified as gay, lesbian, bisexual or transgender. This number is certainly lower than the actual percentage, as in many areas of the U.S. being out is still a risky proposition that can result in social, economic and vocational discrimination. But even if we take the conservative, 3.8%, that equates to over 9 million American adults. And if we are to then expand out to the families of that 9 million, the number grows significantly.
Now could the Republicans win an election by pandering to the Evangelicals and the far right? Possibly, but the chances grow slimmer every day. The United States is growing less religious and more spiritual overall.
According to a seven-year study by the Pew (seen in the figure above,) with every generation, organized religion and its practices has grown less important. And interestingly enough, another portion of this study found that general spirituality not affiliated with an organized religion is on the rise. Americans are clearly growing more independent in this realm, which is also not a good sign for the future of the GOP.
By all accounts the Republican party is backing the wrong horse. Certain members are refusing to recognize the trend lines of our country and by doing so they’re tap-dancing into obscurity. By creating platforms and electing candidates that appeal to the Evangelical base, the party is mortgaging the future for the present. And they may still lose the present. It’s like when the Brooklyn Nets traded away three years of first round draft picks, a serviceable Kris Humphries and some role players for Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Jason Terry: two great players, one good playerâ€"all of them a few years past their prime. The Nets won a single playoff series with this trio, and had the worst record in basketball last year, while the Celtics are building an impressive, young team and still have two years of first round picks at their disposal.
Trump is a problem because he’s a divisive, boorish, crude, small, dangerous, vile, anti-intellectualâ€"but he’s really more of a micro problem. If he’s crushed by Hillary, the GOP should still be able to shuffle away and rebuild. However, social stagnancy is a macro problemâ€"it’s embedded. For the GOP, the act of distancing themselves from their Evangelical base to widen the party’s overall appeal will be incredibly difficult.
The GOP has problems far beyond their orange torchbearer.
(http://theovergrown.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Screen-Shot-2016-08-04-at-12.03.16-PM.png)
Let the weeping begin. Carry on.
The government never ever represents the public. Only 25% of American colonials were in favor of the American Revolution. And the other 75% didn't get what they wanted ... either to stay British or be left alone.
The R position of religious morals is completely cynical. There is no point in achieving any of the Evangelical bullets ... since that removes the reason for the Evangelicals to stay with the Rs. Similarly there is no point in racial amity for the Ds ... otherwise there is no reason for the non-White folks to stay in the D camp.
I can't predict anything of course. I don't know if America is becoming more liberal or more conservative. I am coming to think that we are asking the wrong question. People actually don't change much, in collective terms, over the decades ... we merely change the clothing on our perpetual issues.
As far as observance goes, it is in the eye of the beholder. I don't think Americans are religiously observant at all .. they are opportunists and hypocrites on everything. Not even Jewish Orthodox are really religious, they just want people to think they are.
Quote from: Baruch on August 06, 2016, 11:48:18 AM
The government never ever represents the public. Only 25% of American colonials were in favor of the American Revolution. And the other 75% didn't get what they wanted ... either to stay British or be left alone.
The R position of religious morals is completely cynical. There is no point in achieving any of the Evangelical bullets ... since that removes the reason for the Evangelicals to stay with the Rs. Similarly there is no point in racial amity for the Ds ... otherwise there is no reason for the non-White folks to stay in the D camp.
I can't predict anything of course. I don't know if America is becoming more liberal or more conservative. I am coming to think that we are asking the wrong question. People actually don't change much, in collective terms, over the decades ... we merely change the clothing on our perpetual issues.
As far as observance goes, it is in the eye of the beholder. I don't think Americans are religiously observant at all .. they are opportunists and hypocrites on everything. Not even Jewish Orthodox are really religious, they just want people to think they are.
Yes and yes. My experience with religion is that it is a whole lot more zealous on Sunday in church than on the street weekdays.
QuoteThe R position of religious morals is completely cynical. There is no point in achieving any of the Evangelical bullets ... since that removes the reason for the Evangelicals to stay with the Rs. Similarly there is no point in racial amity for the Ds ... otherwise there is no reason for the non-White folks to stay in the D camp.
There may have been a point where the two parties actually sought common ground, but the Evangelicals have obliterated that. Social stagnation comes from a rigid and inflexible mindset. When your world view is based on a lifestyle adequate for a bronze age sheepherder, but not dealing with or coping with the present. Centrism is derided by the Reps, but honestly that is how business gets done. You can't find common ground if you are busy shitting on it.
Religious fundamentalism in the US has blocked Progressive change for decades ... but back in the day it imposed Prohibition.
The Republican Establishment, which in practice means the donors, are much less religious than the White Evangelicals, who are relatively poor as a group. For the Establishment Republicans, the evangelicals are useful idiots- people who consistently vote against their own economic interests in exchange for very little.
Quote from: Duncle on August 08, 2016, 01:58:03 PM
The Republican Establishment, which in practice means the donors, are much less religious than the White Evangelicals, who are relatively poor as a group. For the Establishment Republicans, the evangelicals are useful idiots- people who consistently vote against their own economic interests in exchange for very little.
Minorities serve the same purpose for the Ds.
By backing Trump they have effectively contradicted their own beliefs- he represents exactly the kind of behavior that religion is adamantly against. What is also idiotic is the fact that by attacking Clinton they are attacking the one more identifiable as a Christian. No wonder Republicans are swinging over to back her.
I think personally we lose either way, but hey- at least we hopefully will wind up with an incompetent grandmother rather than the village idiot.
I can't help but wonder if there really is a shift at all. The "portion" of white evangelicals who identify as Repugnant (autocorret, I swear!) increased 5%, yes, but is that because evangelicals are becoming more Republican or because more liberal evangelicals are dropping out and becoming "nones"? With the drop in importance religion is playing in people's lives in America these days the percentage could go up while the actual numbers go down.
It's far easier to find information specifically on Mormons than just the blanket term "evangelical", where this is definitely not the trend. The Wikipedia page shows a study rise in the Moron (damned autocorrect!) ranks since the '60s, far outpacing population growth in the US. But really these are the more "extreme" belief systems in America we're talking about. I'm actually surprised that the numbers didn't start much higher and "Republican" and "insane asshole with stupid beliefs" really are synonyms these days.
Yes, hard to pin down. I would characterize Lutheran and Episcopalian as Christian Lite, but any denomination that focuses more on the OT rather than the NT would be more right wing. Assembly of God definitely, which is a big group. Pentecostal certainly. Certain preachers have strongly identified as evangelical but you can't speak for everyone. Also the growing number of nones throws off any number given, since they are not a vocal group. My guess based on experience is 1/3 to 1/2 of Christians in the US. But again how many are disaffected by Trump is an unknown.
And trust me, Moron is the correct spelling. As is the title of profit.
I don't consider any politician to be truly religious. But that isn't a bad thing either. People even criticize Mother Theresa. And as I recall, Jesus was criticized as well. Everyone from George Washington on ... are as Roman as Pontius Pilate.
I would imagine a lot of them would actually like what Trump has to say. I remember in my youth being warned that "blacks" were going to take over the country. It was prophesied in the Bible (I have no fucking clue what they were talking about or where this particular prophecy might be. Given how often the Bible mentions the US I gave up looking long ago). I also remember hearing that it was wrong for whites and blacks to intermarry because the Bible says not to "marry outside your tribe". This was in the Pentecostal church. It wasn't stressed, just kind of talked about now and then as fact. And this was from people who don't think they're racist, not skinheads. I have to think that at least some of Trump's message resonates with racists who are ignorant to the fact that they are racist, and there are probably a LOT more of those than there are openly racist people.
Baruch, have you listened to the Republican party over the last few years? They are constantly trying to restore school prayer, outlaw abortion, invalidate homosexuality, pass "religious freedom" bills. The right is WAY more religious than I am comfortable with.
Genuine religious or fake religious? Doesn't matter to me, I am opposed to both. What I get from both parties is a self righteousness, akin to 1861, that deserved hellfire. One can get this from ideologies like fascism and communism too.
Quote from: Baruch on August 10, 2016, 05:56:15 PM
Genuine religious or fake religious? Doesn't matter to me, I am opposed to both. What I get from both parties is a self righteousness, akin to 1861, that deserved hellfire. One can get this from ideologies like fascism and communism too.
I just read a Facebook post from a conservative Republican friend who explained there is only one God, one Truth, and therefore individuals cannot have different interpretations of God; they can't all be correct. The Bible is the only Truth and all other religions, or Christians whose belief stray from scripture, are false. America must become a Christian nation based on Biblical principals. I have noticed he attacks Clinton but never endorses Donald Trump.
(https://partners.nytimes.com/library/politics/012598clinton-hillary.1.jpg)
I beg to differ. Here we have a picture of the former president and his wife leaving church (coincidentally right after the M. Lewinsky debacle). Want to see some examples of Trump's piety.
Think how everything would be different if Hillary had just got down on her knees and.... well, you know.
A YUGE part of the GOP's problem is it's forever stuck in a past that never really existed to begin with . It's overwhelmingly white, older, less educated and insular. I love one quote from this article, http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-end-of-a-republican-party/?ex_cid=2016_538_endofarepublicanparty_0809
I'm paraphrasing..
If you want to know where the Reagan republican voters went in the last election they went to a graveyard in some small town in Michigan.. in other words they've all died off..
Quote from: Baruch on August 10, 2016, 05:56:15 PM
Genuine religious or fake religious? Doesn't matter to me, I am opposed to both. What I get from both parties is a self righteousness, akin to 1861, that deserved hellfire. One can get this from ideologies like fascism and communism too.
Can't argue with that.
Quote from: GSOgymrat on August 10, 2016, 06:22:12 PM
I just read a Facebook post from a conservative Republican friend who explained there is only one God, one Truth, and therefore individuals cannot have different interpretations of God; they can't all be correct. The Bible is the only Truth and all other religions, or Christians whose belief stray from scripture, are false. America must become a Christian nation based on Biblical principals. I have noticed he attacks Clinton but never endorses Donald Trump.
Those folks would auto-da-fe Trump right after they barbeque Clinton. Dominionists. IMHO ... death penalty is to lenient for such arrogant MF. This was your friend's post, or one he cut and paste? If it was his, I would rather be a Black man at a KKK convention that be his friend (if he is that psycho).
Quote from: Baruch on August 11, 2016, 07:06:47 PM
Those folks would auto-da-fe Trump right after they barbeque Clinton. Dominionists. IMHO ... death penalty is to lenient for such arrogant MF. This was your friend's post, or one he cut and paste? If it was his, I would rather be a Black man at a KKK convention that be his friend (if he is that psycho).
I summarized his post and his responses to reactions. We used to work together and we are friends in the online sense, which means not at all.
Quote from: GSOgymrat on August 11, 2016, 07:29:18 PM
I summarized his post and his responses to reactions. We used to work together and we are friends in the online sense, which means not at all.
Good. Beware of proto-Nazis. There is one in every Starbucks.