Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Red on red: the Russians reportedly wiped out one of their own infantry squads, mistakenly believing they were Ukrainians or perhaps anti-Putin Russians.

This happened on April 21st near Ocheretino in Donetsk Oblast (Eastern Ukraine)  First reported on Russian telegram as a victory against pro-Ukraine forces, this was later updated with the explanation that there had been a "monstrous mistake" with accompanying video showing the dead soldiers and their Russian ID, IDs which identified them as part of the 30th separate motorized rifle brigade.  Oopsie.

[Unbeliever]

Couldn't have happened to more deserving guys.

[Hydra009]

In similar just desserts, Kadryrov may be seriously ill with some sort of pancreatic disease

Speculation on his health is not new, there was a lot of speculation on his health last year, and reports spread like wildfire on telegram that his health had rapidly declined, leaving him in a coma (last year, he made a video to declare that he was very much alive and in good health, being filmed awkwardly and slowly jog-walking down a footpath.  I'll give him this - he definitely proved that he was alive)

What's different this time is that a fairly reputable newspaper is saying it, citing the doctors in his hospital and people close to him.  Also, his visit to the hospital - allegedly to visit a sick uncle - is now alleged to have been a false pretense and that he was actually visiting the hospital as a patient, not a visitor.

Additionally - and this raises more red flags for me than a Beijing parade - is that a recent video of his shows him at a meeting where he "sits almost motionless at the table and speaks only slowly and apparently with difficulty"

Again, I want to stress that this could again be nothing, but it's looking more and more likely that something is seriously wrong.

[Hydra009]

European Parliament condemns Russian sham election as illegitimate

Trump: "You can do that?  Cause I'd love to do that too!"
EU: "Condemn a sham election?  Sure."
Trump: "No, I mean have one."

[Hydra009]

Russia threatens to reduce diplomatic status with the US because of REPO act

Oh no, not the diplomatic status.  That'll mean...uh... I'm not entirely sure.  No adoption of Russian kids by US couples.  No wait, that was already banned.  No American tourists?  That was mostly already a thing.

This after threatening us with nukes dozens of times.  All sound and fury...

[Unbeliever]

Putin's just strutting his hour upon the stage.

[Hydra009]

Ukrainian artillery strike hits Russian anti-air unit while it was preparing to launch

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Partisans burn down Russian ka-32 helicopter not far from Moscow

This after Russia allegedly stepped up security after several very similar incidents over the past two years, usually in Ukraine but sometimes in Russia.

If Moscow region is not secure, what is?

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Russia can't afford to win or lose Ukraine war

If it wins, it can't afford to rebuild and secure Ukraine.

If it loses, the economic and political costs would be enermous.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Also, I just wanna say that if you're in a war and your buddy decides to forgo common sense entirely and picks up an IED like it's a Christmas present, stay as far away as you possibly can.  Sprint away, get behind something, hit the deck, whatever you gotta do - you do it.  It might save your life.  Believe me, you don't want to be next to him when that thing goes off.

[Hydra009]

Spain will send a "limited number" of Patriot missiles to Ukraine

Spain reportedly only has 50 Patriot missiles in total, so we're looking at <50, probably much less, but every bit helps.  Those missiles are desperately needed and even one may mean the difference between reading about a Russian strike that was unsuccessful or a Russian strike that hit civilians or electrical infrastructure.

[Hydra009]

Imminent US aid package for Ukraine

What is on the way right now? The Kyiv Independent has put together a detailed list of what the Pentagon's $1 billion package includes.

Their list and (crucially important) explaination of the various armanents is so revelatory while simultaneously concise that I'm jealous that such reporting isn't very common in my country.  Amazing write-up.  Chef's kiss.  I strongly recommend that you stop reading right here and just read the article.

But the super-duper brief version:
*Sea Sparrow, Sidewinder, and Stinger missiles for air defense
*Javelin missiles
*small arms
*Himars rockets
*ATACMS
*artillery shells (regular and cluster munitions)
*Aerial munitions, probably JDAMs
*Bradleys
*Mine-resistant vehicles, logistics/support vehicles, claymore mines, night vision goggle, etc

[Hydra009]

Russian casualties have once again started topping 1k/day.  They're determined to hit 500k very soon.  Artillery has taken a beating, and Ukraine continues to chip away at Russian air defense.