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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Hydra009

Czech president finds opportunity for 800,000 artillery rounds for Ukraine that can be sent to Ukraine in weeks, seeks help in purchasing it

The details are very much unknown at this point, but I'd hazard a guess that they're from various asian countries - almost certainly indochina and a few east asian countries since it includes soviet and nato standard rounds.

As for money, it'd be worth it to save a lot of lives and potentially shave months off the war.  Russia is unlikely to stop until it runs out of hardware - which it is burning through very rapidly - and/or hits a certain amount of casualties where it's no longer realistically possible to keep sending men to the meatgrinder (and they have much less fighting-capable men than one might expect).

So the logical course of action is to see to it that Ukraine can swiftly annihilate invading forces.  A small percentage of our defense budget to cripple - possibly for decades - an expansionist regime and the main security threat to a large number of our european allies.  We don't get those kinds of deals often.

Hydra009

Denmark to send all its stock artillery to Ukraine

Quote"But if you ask Ukraine, they are asking us for ammunition now, artillery now. From Denmark's side, we decided to donate our entire artillery to Ukraine. And I am sorry to say, friends, there is still ammunition in stock in Europe. This is not a question about production because we have weapons, we have ammunition, we have air defense, that we don't have to use ourselves at the moment, that we should deliver to Ukraine," she said.
I gotta say, that's sound reasoning.

Hydra009

And yes, Ukraine lost Avdiivka, which is unfortunate.  But it was a town of 32,000 (Kherson was around 280,000 prior to invasion) almost everyone evacuated and it was likely even more costly for the Russians to capture than Bakhmut.

To capture this town of 32,000 - Putin wasted an estimated 47,186 troops, 364 tanks, 748 armored fighting vehicles, 248 artillery systems, and 5 aircraft.  Yikes.  Roughly 1.5 soldier deaths per civilian driven westward - not exactly a stellar performance.  For Russia, another pyrrhic victory leading the way ultimately to defeat.  If they wish, Russian propagandists can celebrate with vodka now - only to refill the bottle with tears later.

Russia somehow managed to lose 4 aircraft in 2 days, and surprisingly not to friendly fire this time.  An Su-34 shot down close to the front lines (I think I just figured out the problem) to add to the two Su-34s and the Su-35 shot down yesterday.

And they just lost 18 armored vehicles - including 3 tanks - in another failed attack

Despite Ukraine suffering setbacks at times, the loss ratio continues to skew in their favor and Russian brute force tactics continue to incur heavy losses in exchange for minimal gains.


Dark Lightning

Quote from: Hydra009 on February 19, 2024, 08:39:19 PMWar materiel isn't the only thing Russia is buying to sustain its war

I see "they gave it back". Probably went there again through different channels. Looks like we're going to be eaten by Russia, with the help of the Republican party.

Unbeliever

God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

Dark Lightning

Quote from: Unbeliever on February 19, 2024, 09:42:32 PMWell, surprise surprise!

Indeed. My 31 years of working in defense may not sit well with some people, but I'm willing to bet that what the Russians, and the Soviet Union before that did, don't sit well, either. I'd like to think that people at any level of the polity would be loyal to said country. It's looking more and more like the Republican party is only interested in power and money, sold to the Russians. I remember seeing Magats wearing t-shirts with the phrase, "Id rather be Russian than Democrat" at the chump's run at the presidency, in 2016.

Hydra009

Ukrainian drone operators found a large warehouse in southern Ukraine (imo Crimea or Zaporizhzhia) full of armored vehicles, including a Terminator, prepping for a new assault


Hasta la vista, baby!

Hydra009

Leading Chinese bank halts operations in Russia, Belarus due to "payment issues"

QuoteThe news appears to be related to enhanced restrictions the U.S. announced in December 2023 to target financial institutions that help support Russia's war effort. The measures expanded sanctions authority over any financial institutions "determined to have conducted or facilitated any significant transactions...or provided any services" for already sanctioned individuals or companies involved in Russia's military-industrial complex.

QuoteMajor Chinese banks have reportedly strengthened their compliance with Western sanctions after the new U.S. restrictions were announced in December 2023.
China is willing to aid Russia, but not for free.  That's a vulnerability that can be targeted.  Putin does not have an endless supply of wealth and China could be *persuaded* that aiding Russia is not advantageous for their long-term financial prospects.

Hydra009

Drunkedvedev threatens to nuke U.S., the U.K., Germany, and Ukraine if Russia loses its grip on occupied Ukraine

(Why does he think Russia will lose?  Cause that ain't what other Russian propagandists say!)

He dreams big in his drunken stupor, but drunken rants have little to do with the waking world.

QuoteMedvedev, who is also a former president of Russia, has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons but the threats have so far failed to materialize. His critics say that his statements are bluff rather than Russia's genuine plans and are intended to scare the West into making concessions.
A DC 5 sense motive check could tell you that.  Personally, I think there should be consequences for even this.  Introduce a new sanctions target per violation.  That would shut him up real quick.

Hydra009

#3655


QuoteThere are unconfirmed enemy reports that a  HIMARS strike took place against the ruzzian military training ground in Trudivske, Volnovakha district, Donetsk region.

According to enemy channels there are 65 dead and an unknown number of wounded.

Military personnel of the 39th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (military unit 35390, Sakhalinsk) are trained at the location.
Unconfirmed for now, so no link but I'll post the official write-up when it's published.

Hydra009

#3656

He talks about the very recent HIMARS attack I posted about at the 8-minute mark.  Neither one of us have footage of the attack, but there are lots of Russian milblogger posts about it.

Cassia

Quote from: Hydra009 on February 20, 2024, 07:50:48 PMHe talks about the very recent HIMARS attack I posted about at the 8-minute mark.  Neither one of us have footage of the attack, but there are lots of Russian milblogger posts about it.
Z-army is still congregating troops within range. How special indeed.

Hydra009

Quote from: Cassia on February 21, 2024, 08:20:43 AMZ-army is still congregating troops within range. How special indeed.
It happened to Ukraine too a few months ago, but that was an award ceremony and a much smaller group.

Iirc, it's only happened to Ukraine a couple of times while it's happened to Russia at least a half dozen times with no end in sight.

Hydra009

Official write-up, as promised.

QuoteVideo footage of the incident appeared to show large numbers of dead.

A Russian official confirmed that a strike took place but described the reports as "grossly exaggerated".
They say the camera adds ten corpses...