In terrible news (I hate reporting on bad news, but it's important to record such news and make people aware of it, lest it be forgotten)

Russia decided to use Ukrainian PoWs as human shields

Apparently they cancelled the prisoner exchanges with purpose.  :(

Every bit of Russian terrorism and assassination and torture and assorted war crimes should be remembered when Russia eventually seeks to normalize trade relations with the West.

It seems the Russian people are just about fed up with Putin. They were letting him know it at the annual media circus.

Quote from: Unbeliever on December 14, 2023, 08:07:47 PMIt seems the Russian people are just about fed up with Putin. They were letting him know it at the annual media circus.

You're referring to the criticism via text messages shown to Mad Vlad himself?

As bad as things are for Ukraine, Russia is facing problems of its own and its structure - one-man rule - is inherently weaker.  All that needs to happen for Putin's Russia to fall apart is a health crisis or a falling out with the oligarchs or some of its military to start a thunder run to Moscow.  But what are the odds of that?

Putin also inadvertently admitted to over 300k military losses, though I'm currently at a loss as to how that figure was derived from Putin's words.

QuoteThe announcement came after Vladimir Putin inadvertently admitted that more than 300,000 Russian soldiers have died or been heavily wounded in the ongoing war. The figures are in stark contrast to the last death toll offered by the Kremlin, which suggested less than 6,000 troops in Ukraine had been killed.

During his first news conference since the full-scale invasion, he suggested that 244,000 Russians had been mobilised, before adding that 486,000 had volunteered to fight. He then proceeded to say that 617,000 Russians were fighting in Ukraine.

This figure roughly aligns with US estimates that were declassified earlier this week, which suggested that Russia had suffered 315,000 dead and injured troops in Ukraine. But the last time the Kremlin offered an estimate of the death toll was September 2022, in which they said only 5,937 soldiers had been killed.

Additionally, Russia's civilian air fleet appears to be struggling, with much more incidents than normal, including one with a civilian plane carrying radioactive material.  Russia has publicly reported a decrease in incidents while independent sources say the opposite (alternative facts)  This after Russia complained to the UN back in October that sanctions to its air fleet "jeopardized the safety of international civil aviation.".  So which is it?  Can't have it both ways.

Denys thinks that the critical messages Putin received were deliberate - a way to "blow off steam" from the populace, a sort of controlled opposition, if you will.  And that tactic does happen in Russia - a good example are the nationalists who were allowed to express some degree of criticism of the war while at the same time arguing for escalation and being generally supportive of Putin.  This leash was tightened significantly following Prigozhin's march on Moscow and the simple explanation for why Igor Girkin was jailed is that he strayed too far from allowed criticism into disallowed criticism.

Most messages were of course positive towards Putin's agenda and sprinkling in a couple of negative ones here and there might be a handy way to "stick a toe in the water" prior to a policy change (specifically, a much larger mobilization after the election).  It could also serve as a way to appear more legitimate by reporting a 90ish% approval rather than the mythical 100% like they do in North Korea.  Who knows.

What Denys is 100% right about is that the aid fiasco with the Republicans in the USA.  It is indeed a political game to them and whether or not they really care about how it affects Ukrainians is an ongoing topic of concern and speculation.

Lately, it's been a tossup between "quiet" days of 800ish infantry losses and a dozen or so of all vehicle types or busy days of over 1000 infantry losses and dozens of vehicle losses.  Yesterday was definitely a busy day.

Wow, I 'accidentally' saw Russians doing a "meat assault". Guess I will be skipping lunch today. I have the morbid curiosity of a teenage goth girl somedays.

After the Polish border was unblocked, the Slovakia border unblocks as well

Quote from: Cassia on December 15, 2023, 10:23:36 AMWow, I 'accidentally' saw Russians doing a "meat assault". Guess I will be skipping lunch today. I have the morbid curiosity of a teenage goth girl somedays.

Yeah, it's tough viewing.  I'm torn between morbid curiosity and needing to know the actual situation on the ground versus absolute disgust and unease.  Definitely not for the faint of heart or stomach.

I will say this, Ukrainian drone drops have gotten markedly deadlier.  Last year, Russian troops would try to walk it off and it was ambiguous as to whether ot not they'd pull through.  This year, it's more of a one-and-done situation.  Matchbox funeral, a lot of the time.

Putin exaggerates number of troops in Ukraine

Putin claimed that Russia has a total of 617,000 troops in Ukraine, while Ukrainian Intelligence says it's more like 450,000.

Quote"The enemy is giving distorted data to increase information pressure on our country," Yusov said on television, saying the messaging may be aimed to "scare someone abroad" or motivate the domestic population.

QuoteThe only way that Putin's numbers would be realistic is if they included killed soldiers, he added

Quote🇫🇷 Macron said that Orban personally promised him not to block Ukraine's accession to the EU if it fulfills all the conditions of the European Commission.

The French president also expressed hope that the Hungarian prime minister would not "take Europe hostage" in the next stages of negotiations with Ukraine.

Good grief.

Also Macron:

Quote⚡️ Macron confident EU can fund Ukraine even without Orban.

The EU should be able to financially support Ukraine even if Hungary continues obstructing the assistance, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Dec. 15, The Guardian reported.

"I think we can fund Ukraine if we are totally blocked next year," Macron told reporters after the EU summit in Brussels.

Whew.  He had me worried for a second.  Well, let's just say that the scorpion parable comes to mind.

Estonia's war plan

QuoteA national security policy paper newly-released by Estonia's Defence Ministry said Ukraine and its allies would inevitably defeat Russia provided its supporters stay united, and that the Ukrainian military is currently killing and injuring more than ten thousand Russian soldiers each month.

United front to supply UA forces, UA forces destroy RU forces faster than they can replenish ---> Russia will lose the war by 2026.  Simple and direct.  I like it.

QuoteIt assesses that Russia's recruiting and military production capacity is limited and it is unlikely to be able to manage sufficient equipment procurement to support 40,000 recruits every six months. Casualty rates are already so lopsided in Ukraine's favor that the longer the fighting goes on, the less capacity Russia's troops will have to attack and hold ground, the document says.

Quote"The objective therefore should be to inflict a sustained rate of attrition of at least 50,000 killed and severely wounded Russian troops per six months to consistently degrade the quality of the Russian force, preventing Russia from regenerating offensive combat power – which Ukraine so far has successfully achieved," the section on attrition strategy said.

That part of the plan is solid - Ukrainian forces are already inflicting enough attrition on Russian forces to force a Russian strategic defeat in Ukraine.

QuoteUkraine's allies should in 2024 focus efforts to make the Ukrainian military the most efficient killing machine possible and "support the training of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and tailor the defense industrial output accordingly to provide the AFU the artillery, munitions, UAVs, strike systems, air defenses and fighter aircraft required to liberate their territory," the review said.

The Estonian government paper also recommended western states move quickly to confiscate some €330 billion in frozen Russian assets to help finance the Ukraine war effort, devote substantial resources to large-scale AFU combat formation and staff and operations training, and invest in high-tech arms manufacturing and supply chains.

That strategy, if followed, and provided Ukrainian will to fight stays strong, will defeat Russia by "2026 at the latest", the article said.

Obvious advice, but it's important that someone says it, especially someone reputable.  Obviously, it will be a significant investment, but I guarantee that a Ukrainian defeat would be far more costly in every conceivable metric than a Ukrainian victory, and obviously, a short war is less costly than a long war.  Therefore, it's in Ukrainian allies' best interests to go all in and provide as much support as needed.  A post-war Ukraine has the potential to become a valuable trading partner after the war, a phenomenon that should be extremely familiar to every American student of history.

Though this objective is much more difficult than the previous one: partisan bickering and Russian influence are a potent combination and lately Putin has done a lot of damage to the Allies' cause by cultivating veto power to stymie or cut off vital Allied assistance.  Because otherwise, Russian war production is no match for EU/NATO/Ukraine war production and Russia handedly loses.

Russian artillery almost hits low-flying Russian plane

How close was it?  Oh, about this close:



A Zed head commented:

Quote"Our warriors are people of unbridled courage. They are in such a rush to hit the enemy, that they do not look at what is happening around them."

Is that really courageous to be oblivious and careless?

Imho, it takes a staggering level of incompetence to make something like this happen.  It's basically impossible to be trained and sober and do this.

Quote from: Hydra009 on December 16, 2023, 01:22:28 AMRussian artillery almost hits low-flying Russian plane

How close was it?  Oh, about this close:



A Zed head commented:
Is that really courageous to be oblivious and careless?

Imho, it takes a staggering level of incompetence to make something like this happen.  It's basically impossible to be trained and sober and do this.

Where is their IFF system? This is 1939 type action.