Ukraine is once again asking for ATACMS (US long-range missiles) and the US is once again considering it.  The situation is distressingly like Treebeard and the hobbits.

Coincidentally, Ukraine has just published the location of a new Russian base in the Crimea region, a place called Feodosia, roughly 280km from the frontlines.  ATACMS has a range of ~300km, so...hint hint.  They might as well have put this two-headed bird on a silver platter and asked to borrow the US's knife (they already have a fork).

Apparently, anyone can post whatever crackpot ideas they want on Newsweek as an Op-ed

QuoteNone seemed to realize the obvious truth: The coup was staged, and completely faked false flag operation.

Think about it: An army invades Russia, race right up to Moscow, and no one gets hurt? With just a few thousand men, it achieved what Hitler with almost a million men wasn't able to? And Putin holds his military back? And then, with Moscow supposedly within his grasp, Prigozhin decides, "Oh well, never mind" and heads to Belarus?

1) 15 Russian servicemen died, Russia lost several helicopters and a very important, very limited aircraft.  A couple of Wagner vehicles were heavily damaged.  At least two civilians died as collateral damage.  Either this is the most realistic fake ever or it was a real armed confrontation.

2) Very different situation than World War 2, obviously.

3) Yes, the Russian military did very little because a) some of them have Wagner sympathies b) no one really knew which way the wind was blowing, so better to wait it out and live than risk your life, both in the engagement and afterwards, potentially drawing the wrath of whoever is now in charge.

Her evidence that it was a false flag: it didn't "make sense" to her. 

Newsflash, lots of things in the world don't make sense: British cuisine, the platypus, daylight savings time, the careers of Milli Vanilli, the French counting from 80 to 99, etc. 

Just because it's crazy doesn't mean it's not real!

RIP Vanilli

Ukrainian forces assault trenches near Klishchiivka, just south of Bakhmut, take prisoners

QuoteThe assault was quite short, and the first line of defense was breached with no hurdles, which is why Ukrainians immediately started pushing further.

QuoteAs you might expect, it is extremely difficult to navigate inside a trench network because it is effectively a labyrinth. However, looking from above reduces the complexity virtually to zero. Ukrainian drone operators continuously notified the troops on the ground about the number of Russian soldiers in front of them, the movement of these soldiers, how many turns they are away from them, and especially when Russians were reloading.  A group of Russians that started reloading simultaneously immediately got charged and killed.

*taking cover, suppressed by enemy fire*
Certain death...this guy is definitely going to get me...
*enemy reloads*
...Uncertain death
*pops out from cover and shoots the enemy*

Video version of the same news:

Quote from: Hydra009 on June 29, 2023, 03:37:10 PMPutin hopes that Wagner "didn't steal much" of the money the Kremlin spent on them

Prigozhin in Minsk:



I mean, they're mercenaries.  It's not like they responsibly put that cash in a bank and then give it back to you when you ask politely.  I'd imagine they spend it all on gear and supplies and whatever's left on vodka and women or gambling.  That money is long gone!

The money found in the van seems a bit suspicious.

Storm-Z unit (prison conscripts) suffers enormous casualties, refuses further orders in viral video

Among their complaints was their poor living conditions.  The roof certainly needed work in the latest video.  I couldn't help but notice the gaps.  Apparently, I wasn't the only one to familiarize myself with it, because the Ukrainian Airforce was able to geolocate their building (intact brick buildings near the frontlines kinda stick out) and was able to do some roof work of their own.  Repairs are no longer necessary.  Concerns about casualties are likely less numerous but more intense.  They should georelocate back to Russia as soon as possible so they can complain in peace.

I've noticed that lately, the Ukrainians have been using very advanced tactics to preserve their units from enemy fire and to lure Russian forces into completely unlivable situations, enabling comparatively small and somewhat outgunned Ukrainian units to punch far above their weight class.

In particular, the Ukrainians are getting quite good at baiting Russian artillery to strike, but after the smoke clears, the Russians find out they hit nothing.  Meanwhile, the armor drove over landmines, the infantry walked over friendly landmines, and whoever was on that boat just got promoted to cosmonaut.

Quote from: Hydra009 on July 01, 2023, 11:56:16 AM

I've noticed that lately, the Ukrainians have been using very advanced tactics to preserve their units from enemy fire and to lure Russian forces into completely unlivable situations, enabling comparatively small and somewhat outgunned Ukrainian units to punch far above their weight class.

In particular, the Ukrainians are getting quite good at baiting Russian artillery to strike, but after the smoke clears, the Russians find out they hit nothing.  Meanwhile, the armor drove over landmines, the infantry walked over friendly landmines, and whoever was on that boat just got promoted to cosmonaut.

Russians probably assume a long war of attrition favors them because the West has a short attention span.

Quote from: Cassia on July 01, 2023, 12:38:50 PMRussians probably assume a long war of attrition favors them because the West has a short attention span.

The West does have a short attention span.  It also has a if-it-bleeds-it-leads 24/7 media and lots of Russian horror to report.  Ukraine still dominates international headlines even a year later and those aid packages keep coming.  Russia seriously miscalculated all three of its major assessments - its own capabilities, Ukraine's capabilities/resolve, and Western willingness to lend aid long-term.

Quote from: Hydra009 on June 30, 2023, 12:59:12 AMHer evidence that it was a false flag: it didn't "make sense" to her. 

Yikes!

The Ukrainians have made solid progress to the north and south of Bakhmut.  They appear to be trying to surround Bakhmut to force the enemy to leave the city or be completely cut off from supplies and reinforcements.  This is something Russia tried and failed to do.

Noticing the danger, the Russians are currently sending more troops to reinforce the Bakhmut front.

This presents a problem, since troops are being moved from the southern front, which is also under attack.  The Russians no longer have enough forces to fully protect everywhere, leaving vulnerabilities.

For example, the Ukrainians have now established a bridgehead across the Dniper river after luring Russian forces into deadly ambushes and several brutal friendly-fire incidents.  Ukrainian forces are kept at bay only by the threat of Russian artillery and their current lack of ability to move heavy armor across the river.  They're currently focused on silencing those guns, and when they do, they'll have free reign over a somewhat poorly-defended region, a path straight to Crimea, and the ability to move tanks south of the river which can then either attack Crimea (cutting the supply route from Crimea to the rest of Russian-occupied Ukraine) or create a western flank along the Zaporizhzhia front.

Ukraine will likely start sending in its reserves very soon, putting even more pressure on the frontline.  Depending on where they're deployed, they could either shore up Ukrainian gains by matching Russian reinforcements or they could trigger a major breakthrough in an area that the Russians didn't reinforce.

Today, the Ukrainians are advancing in the south, while the Russians are advancing somewhat in the east

(the above video NOT in english, I'll replace it with a more easily-digestible english language version when it becomes available, but I came across it on Telegram and it's too golden to pass up)

You can follow along on auto-translate, but essentially Zelenskyy is saying that Putin is in more danger than he is because only Russia wants to kill Zelenskyy but the whole world wants Putin dead.

He's not wrong.  And after the Wagner fiasco, it's apparent that Putin is perhaps even more disliked than Zelesnkyy in some people's minds there and is certainly a much more accessible target.