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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Hydra009

Putin chef (no wonder he's ill) and nazi dabbler Mr Prigozhin begs Dictator Putin to simply declare victory to "win" the war

Considering that Russia is no longer making significant gains and suffered crushing losses in the attempt, Ukrainian forces are buoyed by Western arms, and a Ukrainian counterattack is looming, it seems highly unlikely that President Zelenskyy will just let them keep what land they've stolen.

Also, it seems like a tacit admission that Russia is losing the war, which doesn't bode well for Putin's future (or Prigozhin's future, come to think of it)

Additionally, Russia's already nebulous war aims seem to have been revised yet again - first it was the fall of Kyiv and the complete conquest of Ukraine before presumably continuing on to Poland and Moldova, then it's the conquest of the Donbass (a slightly less ambitious goal), now it's the slaughter of Ukraine's male population.

QuoteThe ideal option is to announce the end of the special military operation, to inform everyone that Russia has achieved the results that it planned, and in a sense, we have really achieved them. We have ground a huge number of soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and can report to ourselves that our task has been completed.
This is a tacit admission of genocide as a war aim, something the upcoming tribunal will no doubt make note of.  Assuming Mr Chef lives long enough - and it's doubtful, he appears more gaunt and goblinoid by the day, no doubt reflecting orc camaraderie - he may get the chance to repeat these words in front of a live audience before being hauled away in irons.

As for its war accomplishments, all the rest deal in territorial conquest, all of which can be reversed.  So really, Russia has succeeded only in bringing death and destruction, both to itself and its enemy.  One will be rebuilt and repopulated, though it will be a long road to full recovery, and the other will simply languish in poverty, demographic misery, and perhaps even political upheaval.  One combatant will have emerged victorious, but not Russia.

Hydra009

Putin approves use of electronic draft notices

Previously, notices of drafts had to be personally delivered, an inefficient and sometimes fruitless endeavor because potential draftees could simply skip town to avoid service.

Quote"The purpose of the bill is to clean up this mess and make the system modern, effective and convenient for citizens."
"convenient" is certainly a subjective term here

This next rounds of drafts will likely spark another mass exodus of men from Russia, though it may already be too late to leave now.

Cassia

Quote from: Hydra009 on April 15, 2023, 02:17:20 PMPutin approves use of electronic draft notices

Previously, notices of drafts had to be personally delivered, an inefficient and sometimes fruitless endeavor because potential draftees could simply skip town to avoid service.
"convenient" is certainly a subjective term here

This next rounds of drafts will likely spark another mass exodus of men from Russia, though it may already be too late to leave now.
If I was a soldier-age Russian guy, I would be headed for the first secluded spot to cross that gazillion mile long Russian border.

Hydra009

Quote from: Cassia on April 15, 2023, 06:21:51 PMIf I was a soldier-age Russian guy, I would be headed for the first secluded spot to cross that gazillion mile long Russian border.
A lot of them did.  Turkey, Georgia, and Armenia seem to be the most popular destinations.  Especially after the EU closed its airspace to Russia.  A bunch of them also injured themselves to avoid being drafted, though by now they likely need a plan B.

Hydra009

Two Russian armored vehicles got stuck in the mud then abandoned by Russian troops

Perfectly intact and usable (after a thorough cleaning), an easy pickup for enterprising Ukrainian farmers :)



Hydra009

Russia's hybrid warfare (conventional warfare combined with fake news, hacking, and foreign "electoral intervention")


Hydra009

Complete junk: US looks over trophy T-90 tank taken to the States

I'm not sure why this tank couldn't stay in Ukraine and be used by Ukrainian forces in the war, but it's Ukraine's policy to parade some of the wrecks around and let their allies poke through a few of them.  I'd assume that the useable ones are used and the clunkers are the ones that get paraded around, though figuring out which is which must be a very difficult job.

This particular tank was assessed by an American soldier familiar with Abrams tanks.  He said he lived in his Abrams for almost 2 years and it didn't look nearly as bad as the Russian tank.  Not only was it cheaply and poorly made, its crew made no effort to maintain it.

In summary: Russia's war is plagued by bad craftsmanship (bad initial quality) and poor discipline (rapid deteroiration of already bad equipment).  This is important to note as Russia brings antique tanks out of deep storage.  Putin may be preparing for a long war, but his tanks certainly aren't.

Hydra009



Russian state media has taken an active interest in Tucker Carlson and Elon Musk (who personally met with Putin prior to spouting Russian narratives)

In this way, Russian state media can "launder" their propaganda by making it seem like the source of the information is not Putin when in fact it comes from Putin to a network of Russian propagandists to "fellow travelers" then circulated back to Russian state media as if was new info from people with independent viewpoints.

Cassia

Quote from: Hydra009 on April 19, 2023, 09:22:07 AMComplete junk: US looks over trophy T-90 tank taken to the States

I'm not sure why this tank couldn't stay in Ukraine and be used by Ukrainian forces in the war, but it's Ukraine's policy to parade some of the wrecks around and let their allies poke through a few of them.  I'd assume that the useable ones are used and the clunkers are the ones that get paraded around, though figuring out which is which must be a very difficult job.

This particular tank was assessed by an American soldier familiar with Abrams tanks.  He said he lived in his Abrams for almost 2 years and it didn't look nearly as bad as the Russian tank.  Not only was it cheaply and poorly made, its crew made no effort to maintain it.

In summary: Russia's war is plagued by bad craftsmanship (bad initial quality) and poor discipline (rapid deteroiration of already bad equipment).  This is important to note as Russia brings antique tanks out of deep storage.  Putin may be preparing for a long war, but his tanks certainly aren't.

ferdmonger

Quote from: Hydra009 on April 19, 2023, 09:22:07 AMComplete junk: US looks over trophy T-90 tank taken to the States

I'm not sure why this tank couldn't stay in Ukraine and be used by Ukrainian forces in the war, but it's Ukraine's policy to parade some of the wrecks around and let their allies poke through a few of them.  I'd assume that the useable ones are used and the clunkers are the ones that get paraded around, though figuring out which is which must be a very difficult job.

This particular tank was assessed by an American soldier familiar with Abrams tanks.  He said he lived in his Abrams for almost 2 years and it didn't look nearly as bad as the Russian tank.  Not only was it cheaply and poorly made, its crew made no effort to maintain it.

In summary: Russia's war is plagued by bad craftsmanship (bad initial quality) and poor discipline (rapid deteroiration of already bad equipment).  This is important to note as Russia brings antique tanks out of deep storage.  Putin may be preparing for a long war, but his tanks certainly aren't.

You're quite correct - if you don't maintain your stuff, it's worthless.  In 1980 in northern Germany, our company got to view all kinds of Russian stuff - tanks, artillery, APC's, etc. I remember it all being nearly spotless, like someone bought it direct from the factory floor.  I've no idea how they got hold of that stuff.

Hydra009

#2412
Quote from: ferdmonger on April 20, 2023, 08:02:32 PMYou're quite correct - if you don't maintain your stuff, it's worthless.  In 1980 in northern Germany, our company got to view all kinds of Russian stuff - tanks, artillery, APC's, etc. I remember it all being nearly spotless, like someone bought it direct from the factory floor.  I've no idea how they got hold of that stuff.
Interesting.  During the Cold War, there was a serious risk of a conflict starting on German soil, so I guess they kept things in tip-top shape back then.  But the collapse of the USSR changed all that.  Germany developed a reputation of military neglect and reduced its military funding, clocking in at roughly 1.3% GDP (fairly typical for Europe, but well below the 2% goal).  Sure, Rheinmetall has some impressive offerings, but that's mainly exported to other countries, not a lot of it makes its way to the German military.

Not that I blame them, it makes sense to relax a little during peacetime, especially when you're smack dab in the middle of NATO.  But like a lot of countries, they figured out too late that Putin won't just leave them alone.  Nordstream was an incredibly expensive, ambitious project and to see it blown up during a time of war by agents unknown - the largest methane release in human history - that must've been rough.