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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Hydra009


Hydra009

Today's Russian KIA:

820 troops
9 tanks
10 armored vehicles
12 vehicles
4 artillery
1 plane
4 drones

Unbeliever

How long before Putin has to just give up and admit Russia just can't win?
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

Hydra009

Quote from: Unbeliever on January 18, 2023, 01:54:19 PMHow long before Putin has to just give up and admit Russia just can't win?

He's gearing up for a long war, looking to recruit ~500k in a silent mobilization by relaxing military ages and standards as well as more relentlessly mobilizing from occupied territory.

Even so, that only buys him 1-2 years.  Unfortunately, his takeaway from Donbass is that if you throw enough bodies at it, you will take territory.  From there, he simply has to sue for peace to keep what he's taken, reconstitute his forces, and make another push.

Delusional thinking, of course, but the saying goes that no one is more deluded by state media than its dictator.

Throwing more men at it is not going to play well when the Ukrainians have much more armor to work with.

Blackleaf

At this point, I'm not sure Russia will have enough men to repopulate when this is all over. Might have to start taking notes from Joseph Smith.
"Oh, wearisome condition of humanity,
Born under one law, to another bound;
Vainly begot, and yet forbidden vanity,
Created sick, commanded to be sound."
--Fulke Greville--

Unbeliever

Well, it doesn't take many men to repopulate, since one man can impregnate many women, but I see your point.

I just hope it doesn't take ten years, like it took them (and us) in Afghanistan.
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

Hydra009

Video from 4 months ago, but some parts are timeless:


[referring to Kharkiv offensive and loss of vast amounts of Russian-occupied territory]
"I hope they'll get these territories back"
(They did not get those territories back - ed)

Hydra009

US prepping major aid package to Ukraine

QuoteThe package will likely include a number of Strykers, an eight-wheeled armored fighting vehicle built by General Dynamics Land Systems, as well as ground-launched Small Diameter Bombs, which have a range of roughly 100 miles
These GLSDB (really rolls off the tongue) are no small threat to the Russian invaders.



With a range of 100 miles (~160 km), they can target virtually any Russian position in Ukraine (except Crimea, which is just barely out of range...for now)  They're not ATACMS (300km range), but they'll do the job and make life very difficult for Russian positions that were previously "safe".

QuoteThe Biden administration currently has no plans to send the Abrams, the Army's 60-ton main battle tank, the people said.

The reluctance is due to the logistical and maintenance challenges of the tanks, and not over concern that their transfer could escalate the conflict, one of the U.S. officials said.
Unfortunately Abrams tanks apparently wouldn't do much good without a large amounts of supply/maintenance which Ukraine simply doesn't have.  So it'd be more of a hassle than help, which is a shame because it was literally built to fight Russian armor.

Oh well, at least Poland will have them, which will allow Poland to part with tanks it no longer needs.

Quote"Our judgment to date has been that the juice isn't really working the squeeze on the ATACMs.

No idea what they meant by that, all I know is that they need to start scheduling these press conferences in the afternoon, after everyone's had coffee, lunch, and possibly a nap.

Shiranu

QuoteWith a range of 100 miles (~160 km), they can target virtually any Russian position in Ukraine (except Crimea, which is just barely out of range...for now)  They're not ATACMS (300km range), but they'll do the job and make life very difficult for Russian positions that were previously "safe".

While I feel Ukraine has every right to attack Moskva on all it's holdings (because they do), I feel this is a good compromise - as long as Ukraine can credibly claim itself to be the defending country, it will have Western public support and (more importantly) pressure on politicians to send weapons.

"A little science distances you from God, but a lot of science brings you nearer to Him." - Louis Pasteur

Hydra009

Quote from: Shiranu on January 19, 2023, 02:42:24 AMWhile I feel Ukraine has every right to attack Moskva on all it's holdings (because they do), I feel this is a good compromise - as long as Ukraine can credibly claim itself to be the defending country, it will have Western public support and (more importantly) pressure on politicians to send weapons.
As long as they're hitting military targets, IDGAF what they hit.

Normally, I'd care a great deal, but civilian massacres like Bucha and these ongoing missile barrages primarily against civilians, launched from Russian territory, sometimes Belarusian territory, is the height of cowardice and cruelty and anything that flies back is richly deserved and plausible self-defense.

But for political and practical reasons, they should refrain from hitting Russian targets in Belarus.  It's terribly unfair that Russia can use that country as a launch site for aggression without response, but dictators behave in many ways that democratic leaders cannot.

Hydra009

#1975
Sweden is sending 50 Combat Vehicle 90 (IFV) and 12 Archer artillery systems to Ukraine

Russia did its normal song and dance - it will prolong the war that Russia is definitely winning this, threat to European security that, nuke threat - it's all really predictable and sad at this point.  Like a Chihuahua barking at a pack of wolves. 

Russia should consider itself lucky that they made enemies of civilized countries and not people with a similar mentality as them.

As for threats to European security, every country that borders Russia will tell you what that is, and they'll all give you the same answer.  Every aid package to Ukraine - big or small - shortens the war, saves lives, and changes the future for the better.


Hydra009

#1977
Estonia to provide Ukraine with howitzers, ammunition, artillery support vehicles, and grenade launchers

This might not seem too impressive, but with this package, Estonia will have provided over 1% of its GDP in aid to Ukraine, which is more than everyone else.  The UK, US, and Canada are all around 1/4 of 1%.

That's something to bear in mind when the Republicans talk about the "vast" sums spent on Ukraine, it's really just the DoD's pocket change and it's to stop genocide.  Ask them what that money would ordinarily fund that would be better and if abandoning our allies in their time of need would be a smart move.

Hydra009

#1978
During the beginning of the war, Bulgaria quietly supplied Ukraine with a third of its ammo and 40% of its fuel

Pivotal help that allowed Ukraine to withstand the initial onslaught, buying Ukraine the time it needed for further aid. 

If Kyiv had fallen in those early days, we wouldn't be talking about HIMARS and Leopards right now, we'd be talking about a second holocaust.

Hydra009

Quote from: Blackleaf on January 18, 2023, 03:21:52 PMAt this point, I'm not sure Russia will have enough men to repopulate when this is all over. Might have to start taking notes from Joseph Smith.
About that, there was a really batshit Russian propaganda "commercial" (which of course I can't find) where some western guy is trying dating apps but gets confused by pronouns and lgbt people (obsession with and hatred for lgbt is a recurring theme in Russian media) and decides to give up western dating for hot traditional Russian women (lol) who are totally into him for reasons that aren't entirely clear.  Sounds legit.

The takeaway is apparently that Russia is a good place for sex tourism.  It seems strange that Russia, which is presented as a land of muscular, manly men would want us beta male westoids to come over and sex their women, but there it is.  This whole thing might be slightly related to them losing 6 figures of men in war and 6 figures of both sexes fleeing the country.  The later seems like a strange thing to do in a country that's doing just fine, even boasting an impeccable dating scene.  Also, I wouldn't be so sure Russian women aren't as deranged as the men.  Some dude's wife encouraged him to rape Ukrainian women.  Yikes.  Might wanna swipe left on that one.

Well, I came across a Russian state media "commercial" that outdid even that piece of garbage:


LOL, if Russians seriously have this impression of the US, they'd be in for a rude awakening, especially in the South, where none of this is even slightly true.